MICHELINE DE SOUSA ZANOTTI STAGLIORIO COELHO
Projetos de Pesquisa
Unidades Organizacionais
LIM/05 - Laboratório de Poluição Atmosférica Experimental, Hospital das Clínicas, Faculdade de Medicina
12 resultados
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- Associations between long-term exposure to PM2.5 and site-specific cancer mortality: A nationwide study in Brazil between 2010 and 2018(2022) YU, Pei; XU, Rongbin; LI, Shanshan; COELHO, Micheline S. Z. S. R.; SALDIVA, Paulo H. N. J.; SIM, Malcolm R.; ABRAMSON, Michael J.; GUO, YumingLong-term exposure to PM2.5 has been linked to lung cancer incidence and mortality, but limited evidence existed for other cancers. This study aimed to assess the association between PM2.5 on cancer specific mortality. An ecological study based on the cancer mortality data collected from 5,565 Brazilian cities during 2010-2018 using a difference-in-differences approach with quasi-Poisson regression, was applied to examine PM2.5-cancer mortality associations. Globally gridded annual average surface PM2.5 concentration was extracted and linked with the residential municipality of participants in this study. Sex, age stratified and exposure-response estimations were also conducted. Totalling 1,768,668 adult cancer deaths records of about 208 million population living across 5,565 municipalities were included in this study. The average PM2.5 concentration was 7.63 mu g/m(3) (standard deviation 3.32) with range from 2.95 mu g/m(3) to 28.5 mu g/m(3). With each 10 mu g/m(3) increase in three-year average (current year and previous two years) concentrations of PM2.5, the relative risks (RR) of cancer mortality were 1.16 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.11-1.20) for all-site cancers. The PM2.5 exposure was significantly associated with several cancer-specific mortalities including oral, nasopharynx, oesophagus, and stomach, colon rectum, liver, gallbladder, larynx, lung, bone, skin, female breast, cervix, prostate, brain and leukaemia. No safe level of PM2.5 exposure was observed in the exposure-response curve for all types of cancer. In conclusion, with nationwide cancer death records in Brazil, we found that long-term exposure to ambient PM2.5 increased risks of mortality for many cancer types. Even low level PM2.5 concentrations had significant impacts on cancer mortality.
- Authors' reply for ""Considerations about causality in observational studies""(2022) WEN, Bo; XU, Rongbin; WU, Yao; COELHO, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio; SALDIVA, Paulo Hilario Nascimento; GUO, Yuming; LI, Shanshan
- Exposure to wildfire-related PM2.5 and sitespecific cancer mortality in Brazil from 2010 to 2016: A retrospective study(2022) YU, Pei; XU, Rongbin; LI, Shanshan; YUE, Xu; CHEN, Gongbo; YE, Tingting; COELHO, Micheline S. Z. S.; SALDIVA, Paulo H. N.; SIM, Malcolm R.; ABRAMSON, Michael J.; GUO, YumingBackground Long-term exposure to fine particles <= 2.5 mu m in diameter (PM2.5) has been linked to cancer mortality. However, the effect of wildfire-related PM2.5 exposure on cancer mortality risk is unknown. This study evaluates the association between wildfire-related PM2.5 and site-specific cancer mortality in Brazil, from 2010 to 2016. Methods and findings Nationwide cancer death records were collected during 2010-2016 from the Brazilian Mortality Information System. Death records were linked with municipal-level wildfire- and nonwildfire-related PM2.5 concentrations, at a resolution of 2.0 degrees latitude by 2.5 degrees longitude. We applied a variant difference-in-differences approach with quasi-Poisson regression, adjusting for seasonal temperature and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. Relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the exposure for specific cancer sites were estimated. Attributable fractions and cancer deaths were also calculated. In total, 1,332,526 adult cancer deaths (age >= 20 years), from 5,565 Brazilian municipalities, covering 136 million adults were included. The mean annual wildfire-related PM2.5 concentration was 2.38 mu g/m(3), and the annual non-wildfire-related PM2.5 concentration was 8.20 mu g/m(3). The RR for mortality from all cancers was 1.02 (95% CI 1.01-1.03, p< 0.001) per mu g/m(3) increase of wildfire-related PM2.5 concentration, which was higher than the RR per 1-mu g/m(3) increase of non-wildfire-related PM2.5 (1.01 [95% CI 1.00-1.01], p = 0.007, with p for difference = 0.003). Wildfire-related PM2.5 was associated with mortality from cancers of the nasopharynx (1.10 [95% CI 1.04-1.16], p = 0.002), esophagus (1.05 [95% CI 1.01-1.08], p = 0.012), stomach (1.03 [95% CI 1.01-1.06], p = 0.017), colon/rectum (1.08 [95% CI 1.05-1.11], p < 0.001), larynx (1.06 [95% CI 1.02-1.11], p = 0.003), skin (1.06 [95% CI 1.001.12], p = 0.003), breast (1.04 [95% CI 1.01-1.06], p = 0.007), prostate (1.03 [95% CI 1.011.06], p = 0.019), and testis (1.10 [95% CI 1.03-1.17], p = 0.002). For all cancers combined, the attributable deaths were 37 per 100,000 population and ranged from 18/100,000 in the Northeast Region of Brazil to 71/100,000 in the Central-West Region. Study limitations included a potential lack of assessment of the joint effects of gaseous pollutants, an inability to capture the migration of residents, and an inability to adjust for some potential confounders. Conclusions Exposure to wildfire-related PM2.5 can increase the risks of cancer mcaoprttuarlietyyofourrmmeaannyincga:Infncoetr; pleaseprovidecorrectwording: sites, and the effect for wildfire-related PM2.5 was higher than for PM2.5 from non-wildfire sources.
- Comparison of weather station and climate reanalysis data for modelling temperature-related mortality (vol 12, 5178, 2022)(2022) MISTRY, Malcolm N.; SCHNEIDER, Rochelle; MASSELOT, Pierre; ROYE, Dominic; ARMSTRONG, Ben; KYSELY, Jan; ORRU, Hans; SERA, Francesco; TONG, Shilu; LAVIGNE, Eric; URBAN, Ales; MADUREIRA, Joana; GARCIA-LEON, David; IBARRETA, Dolores; CISCAR, Juan-Carlos; FEYEN, Luc; SCHRIJVER, Evan de; COELHO, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio; PASCAL, Mathilde; TOBIAS, Aurelio; GUO, Yuming; VICEDO-CABRERA, Ana M.; GASPARRINI, Antonio
- Loss of life expectancy from PM2.5 in Brazil: A national study from 2010 to 2018(2022) YU, Pei; XU, Rongbin; LI, Shanshan; COELHO, Micheline S. Z. S.; SALDIVA, Paulo H. N.; SIM, Malcolm R.; ABRAMSON, Michael J.; GUO, YumingBackground: Long-term exposure to PM2.5 is proved to be linked with mortality. However, limited studies have estimated the PM2.5 related loss of life expectancy (LLE) and its changing trends. How much life expectancy would be improved if PM2.5 pollution is reduced to the new WHO air quality guideline (AQG) level is unclear. Methods: Data on deaths from all-causes, cancer, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases were collected from 5,565 Brazilian municipalities during 2010-2018. A difference-in-differences approach with quasi-Poisson regression was applied to examine the PM2.5-years of life lost (YLL) associations and PM2.5 associated LLE. Results: The annual PM2.5 concentration in each municipality from 2010 to 2018 was 7.7 mu g/m3 in Brazil. Nationally, with each 10 mu g/m3 increase in five-year-average (current and previous four years) concentrations of PM2.5, the relative risks (RRs) were 1.18 (95% CI: 1.15-1.21) for YLL from all-causes, 1.22 (1.16-1.28) from cancer, 1.12 (1.08-1.17) from cardiovascular and 1.17 (1.10-1.25) from respiratory diseases. Life expectancy could be improved by 1.09 (95% CI: 0.92-1.25) years by limiting PM2.5 concentration to the national lowest level (2.9 mu g/m3), specifically, 0.20 (0.15-0.24) years for cancer, 0.16 (0.11-0.22) years for cardiovascular and 0.09 (0.05-0.13) years for respiratory diseases, with significant disparities across regions and municipalities. Life expectancy would be improved by 0.78 (0.66-0.90) years by setting the new WHO AQG PM2.5 concentration level of 5 mu g/m3 as an acceptable threshold. Conclusions: Using nationwide death records in Brazil, we found that long-term exposure to PM2.5 was associated with reduced life expectancy from all-causes, cancer, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases with regional inequalities and different trends. PM2.5 pollution abatement to below the WHO AQG level would improve this loss of life expectancy in Brazil.
- Short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM2.5 increases mortality risks and burdens in Brazil(2022) YE, Tingting; XU, Rongbin; YUE, Xu; CHEN, Gongbo; YU, Pei; COELHO, Micheline S. Z. S.; SALDIVA, Paulo H. N.; ABRAMSON, Michael J.; GUO, Yuming; LI, ShanshanTo assess mortality risks and burdens associated with short-term exposure to wildfire-related fine particulate matter with diameter <= 2.5 mu m (PM2.5), we collect daily mortality data from 2000 to 2016 for 510 immediate regions in Brazil, the most wildfire-prone area. We integrate data from multiple sources with a chemical transport model at the global scale to isolate daily concentrations of wildfire-related PM2.5 at a 0.25 x 0.25 resolution. With a two-stage time-series approach, we estimate (i) an increase of 3.1% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.4, 3.9%) in all-cause mortality, 2.6% (95%CI: 1.5, 3.8%) in cardiovascular mortality, and 7.7% (95%CI: 5.9, 9.5) in respiratory mortality over 0-14 days with each 10 mu g/m(3) increase in daily wildfire-related PM2.5; (ii) 0.65% of all-cause, 0.56% of cardiovascular, and 1.60% of respiratory mortality attributable to acute exposure to wildfire-related PM2.5, corresponding to 121,351 all-cause deaths, 29,510 cardiovascular deaths, and 31,287 respiratory deaths during the study period. In this study, we find stronger associations in females and adults aged >= 60 years, and geographic difference in the mortality risks and burdens. To assess mortality risks and burdens associated with short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM2.5, the authors collect daily mortality data from 2000 to 2016 for 510 immediate regions in Brazil, the most wildfire-prone area.
- High ambient temperature and risk of hospitalization for gastrointestinal infection in Brazil: A nationwide case-crossover study during 2000-2015(2022) ZHAO, Qi; LI, Shanshan; COELHO, Micheline S. Z. S.; SALDIVA, Paulo H. N.; HUXLEY, Rachel R.; GUO, YumingBackground: The burden of gastrointestinal infections related to hot ambient temperature remains largely unexplored in low-to-middle income countries which have most of the cases globally and are experiencing the greatest impact from climate change. The situation is particularly true in Brazil.Objectives: Using medical records covering over 78 % of population, we quantify the association between high temper-ature and risk of hospitalization for gastrointestinal infection in Brazil between 2000 and 2015.Methods: Data on hospitalization for gastrointestinal infection and weather conditions were collected from 1814 Brazilian cities during the 2000-2015 hot seasons. A time-stratified case-crossover design was used to estimate the as-sociation. Stratified analyses were performed by region, sex, age-group, type of infection and early/late study period.Results: For every 5 degrees C increase in mean daily temperature, the cumulative odds ratio (OR) of hospitalization over 0-9 days was 1.22 [95 % confidence interval (CI): 1.21, 1.23] at the national level, reaching its maximum in the south and its minimum in the north. The strength of association tended to decline across successive age-groups, with infants < 1 year most susceptible. The effect estimates were similar for men and women. Waterborne and foodborne infections were more associated with high temperature than the 'others' and 'idiopathic' groups. There was no substantial change in the association over the 16-year study period.Discussion: Our findings indicate that exposure to high temperature is associated with increased risk of hospitalization for gastrointestinal infection in the hot season, with the strength varying by region, population subgroup and infection type. There was no evidence to indicate adaptation to heat over the study duration.
- Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with short-term temperature variability from 2000-19: a three-stage modelling study(2022) WU, Yao; LI, Shanshan; ZHAO, Qi; WEN, Bo; GASPARRINI, Antonio; TONG, Shilu; OVERCENCO, Ala; URBAN, Ales; SCHNEIDER, Alexandra; ENTEZARI, Alireza; VICEDO-CABRERA, Ana Maria; ZANOBETTI, Antonella; ANALITIS, Antonis; ZEKA, Ariana; TOBIAS, Aurelio; NUNES, Baltazar; ALAHMAD, Barrak; ARMSTRONG, Ben; FORSBERG, Bertil; PAN, Shih-Chun; INIGUEZ, Carmen; AMELING, Caroline; VALENCIA, Cesar De la Cruz; ASTROM, Christofer; HOUTHUIJS, Danny; Do Van Dung; ROYE, Dominic; INDERMITTE, Ene; LAVIGNE, Eric; MAYVANEH, Fatemeh; ACQUAOTTA, Fiorella; DE'DONATO, Francesca; RAO, Shilpa; SERA, Francesco; CARRASCO-ESCOBAR, Gabriel; KAN, Haidong; ORRU, Hans; KIM, Ho; HOLOBACA, Iulian-Horia; KYSELY, Jan; MADUREIRA, Joana; SCHWARTZ, Joel; JAAKKOLA, Jouni J. K.; KATSOUYANNI, Klea; DIAZ, Magali Hurtado; RAGETTLI, Martina S.; HASHIZUME, Masahiro; PASCAL, Mathilde; COELHO, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio; ORTEGA, Nicolas Valdes; RYTI, Niilo; SCOVRONICK, Noah; MICHELOZZI, Paola; CORREA, Patricia Matus; GOODMAN, Patrick; SALDIVA, Paulo Hilario Nascimento; ABRUTZKY, Rosana; OSORIO, Samuel; Tran Ngoc Dang; COLISTRO, Valentina; HUBER, Veronika; LEE, Whanhee; SEPOSO, Xerxes; HONDA, Yasushi; GUO, Yue Leon; BELL, Michelle L.; GUO, YumingBackground Increased mortality risk is associated with short-term temperature variability: However, to our knowledge, there has been no comprehensive assessment of the temperature variability-related mortality burden worldwide. In this study, using data from the MCC Collaborative Research Network, we first explored the association between temperature variability and mortality across 43 countries or regions. Then, to provide a more comprehensive picture of the global burden of mortality associated with temperature variability, global gridded temperature data with a resolution of 0.5 degrees x0.5 degrees were used to assess the temperature variability-related mortality burden at the global, regional, and national levels. Furthermore, temporal trends in temperature variability-related mortality burden were also explored from 2000-19. Methods In this modelling study, we applied a three-stage meta-analytical approach to assess the global temperature variability-related mortality burden at a spatial resolution of 0.5 degrees x0.5 degrees from 2000-19. Temperature variability was calculated as the SD of the average of the same and previous days' minimum and maximum temperatures. We first obtained location-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations based on a daily time series of 750 locations from the Multi-country Multi-city Collaborative Research Network. We subsequently constructed a multivariable meta-regression model with five predictors to estimate grid-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations across the globe. Finally, percentage excess in mortality and excess mortality rate were calculated to quantify the temperature variability-related mortality burden and to further explore its temporal trend over two decades. Findings An increasing trend in temperature variability was identified at the global level from 2000 to 2019. Globally, 1753392 deaths (95% CI 1159 901-2357 718) were associated with temperature variability per year, accounting for 3.4% (2.2-4.6) of all deaths. Most of Asia, Australia, and New Zealand were observed to have a higher percentage excess in mortality than the global mean. Globally, the percentage excess in mortality increased by about 4.6% (3.7-5.3) per decade. The largest increase occurred in Australia and New Zealand (7.3%, 95% CI 4-3-10.4), followed by Europe (4.4%, 2.2-5.6) and Africa (3.3, 1- 9-4.6). Interpretation Globally, a substantial mortality burden was associated with temperature variability, showing geographical heterogeneity and a slightly increasing temporal trend. Our findings could assist in raising public awareness and improving the understanding of the health impacts of temperature variability.
conferenceObject Associations between long-term exposure to wildfire-related particulate matter and site-specific cancer mortality: a national study in Brazil, 2010-16(2022) YU, Pei; XU, Rongbin; LI, Shanshan; YUE, Xu; CHEN, Gongbo; YE, Tingting; COELHO, Micheline; SALDIVA, Paulo; SIM, Malcolm R.; ABRAMSON, Michael J.; GUO, Yuming- Comparison of weather station and climate reanalysis data for modelling temperature-related mortality(2022) MISTRY, Malcolm N.; SCHNEIDER, Rochelle; MASSELOT, Pierre; ROYE, Dominic; ARMSTRONG, Ben; KYSELY, Jan; ORRU, Hans; SERA, Francesco; TONG, Shilu; LAVIGNE, Eric; URBAN, Ales; MADUREIRA, Joana; GARCIA-LEON, David; IBARRETA, Dolores; CISCAR, Juan-Carlos; FEYEN, Luc; SCHRIJVER, Evan de; COELHO, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio; PASCAL, Mathilde; TOBIAS, Aurelio; GUO, Yuming; VICEDO-CABRERA, Ana M.; GASPARRINI, AntonioEpidemiological analyses of health risks associated with non-optimal temperature are traditionally based on ground observations from weather stations that offer limited spatial and temporal coverage. Climate reanalysis represents an alternative option that provide complete spatio-temporal exposure coverage, and yet are to be systematically explored for their suitability in assessing temperature-related health risks at a global scale. Here we provide the first comprehensive analysis over multiple regions to assess the suitability of the most recent generation of reanalysis datasets for health impact assessments and evaluate their comparative performance against traditional station-based data. Our findings show that reanalysis temperature from the last ERA5 products generally compare well to station observations, with similar non-optimal temperature-related risk estimates. However, the analysis offers some indication of lower performance in tropical regions, with a likely underestimation of heat-related excess mortality. Reanalysis data represent a valid alternative source of exposure variables in epidemiological analyses of temperature-related risk.