ALMIR FERREIRA DE ANDRADE
Projetos de Pesquisa
Unidades Organizacionais
Instituto Central, Hospital das Clínicas, Faculdade de Medicina - Médico
LIM/62 - Laboratório de Fisiopatologia Cirúrgica, Hospital das Clínicas, Faculdade de Medicina
LIM/62 - Laboratório de Fisiopatologia Cirúrgica, Hospital das Clínicas, Faculdade de Medicina
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- Prediction of Early TBI Mortality Using a Machine Learning Approach in a LMIC Population(2020) AMORIM, Robson Luis; OLIVEIRA, Louise Makarem; MALBOUISSON, Luis Marcelo; NAGUMO, Marcia Mitie; SIMOES, Marcela; MIRANDA, Leandro; BOR-SENG-SHU, Edson; BEER-FURLAN, Andre; ANDRADE, Almir Ferreira De; RUBIANO, Andres M.; TEIXEIRA, Manoel Jacobsen; KOLIAS, Angelos G.; PAIVA, Wellingson SilvaBackground: In a time when the incidence of severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) is increasing in low- to middle-income countries (LMICs), it is important to understand the behavior of predictive variables in an LMIC's population. There are few previous attempts to generate prediction models for TBI outcomes from local data in LMICs. Our study aim is to design and compare a series of predictive models for mortality on a new cohort in TBI patients in Brazil using Machine Learning. Methods: A prospective registry was set in Sao Paulo, Brazil, enrolling all patients with a diagnosis of TBI that require admission to the intensive care unit. We evaluated the following predictors: gender, age, pupil reactivity at admission, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), presence of hypoxia and hypotension, computed tomography findings, trauma severity score, and laboratory results. Results: Overall mortality at 14 days was 22.8%. Models had a high prediction performance, with the best prediction for overall mortality achieved through Naive Bayes (area under the curve = 0.906). The most significant predictors were the GCS at admission and prehospital GCS, age, and pupil reaction. When predicting the length of stay at the intensive care unit, the Conditional Inference Tree model had the best performance (root mean square error = 1.011), with the most important variable across all models being the GCS at scene. Conclusions: Models for early mortality and hospital length of stay using Machine Learning can achieve high performance when based on registry data even in LMICs. These models have the potential to inform treatment decisions and counsel family members.
- Postoperative neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio variation is associated with chronic subdural hematoma recurrence(2022) OLIVEIRA, Adilson J. M. de; SOLLA, Davi J. F.; OLIVEIRA, Klever F. de; AMARAL, Bruno S.; ANDRADE, Almir F.; KOLIAS, Angelos G.; PAIVA, Wellingson S.Introduction Chronic subdural haematoma (CSDH) is one of the most common neurosurgical pathologies. The recurrence of chronic subdural haematomas is an important concern, considering that elderly patients are the most affected and reoperations in these patients may represent a risk of neurological and clinical complications. In accordance with the inflammatory theory regarding CSDH and its recurrence, we aimed to evaluate the role of an inflammatory marker, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), as a risk factor and prognostic variable for CSDH recurrence. Methods We performed a cohort study of adult patients operated for post-traumatic CSDH traumatic CSDH between January 2015 and December 2019 in our neurotrauma unit, whose data was retrospectively retrieved. We excluded patients with previous inflammatory or infectious diseases as well as use of anticoagulant/antiplatelet medications. Neutrophil and lymphocyte counts were obtained 24 h preoperatively and 48-72 h postoperatively. The primary endpoint was symptomatic recurrence of CSDH up to 1 year after the surgery. An independent sample was used to validate the findings. Results The testing sample comprised 160 patients (59.4% male, mean age 69.3 +/- 14.3 years, recurrence rate 22.5%). Postoperative neutrophil count and NLR were higher in those who recurred, as well as the neutrophils (median 1.15 vs 0.96, p = 0.022) and NLR (median 1.29 vs 0.79, p = 0.001) postoperative-to-preoperative ratios. Preoperative laboratory parameters or other baseline variables were not associated with recurrence. Postoperative NLR ratio (each additional unit, OR 2.53, 95% CI 1.37-4.67, p = 0.003) was independently associated with recurrence. The best cut-off for the postoperative NLR ratio was 0.995 (AUC-ROC 0.67, sensitivity 63.9%, specificity 76.6%). Postoperative NLR ratio >= 1 (i.e. a post-operative NLR that does not decrease compared to the preoperative value) was associated with recurrence (OR 4.59, 95% CI 2.00-10.53, p < 0.001). The validation sample analysis (66 patients) yielded similar results (AUC-ROC 0.728, 95% CI 0.594-0.862, p = 0.002) and similar cut-off (>= 1.05, sensitivity 77.8%, specificity 66.7%). Conclusion NLR ratio can be a useful parameter for the prediction of post-traumatic CSDH recurrence. This hypothesis was validated in an independent sample and the accuracy was moderate.
- Emergency neurosurgery for traumatic brain injury: the need for a national and international registry study(2019) SOLLA, Davi J. Fontoura; QUADROS, Danilo Gomes; KOLIAS, Angelos G.; CLARK, David J.; HUTCHINSON, Peter J.; TEIXEIRA, Manoel Jacobsen; ANDRADE, Almir Ferreira de; PAIVA, Wellingson Silva
- New perspectives on assessment and understanding of the patient with cranial bone defect: a morphometric and cerebral radiodensity assessment(2024) OLIVEIRA, Arthur Maynart Pereira; ANDRADE, Almir Ferreira De; PIPEK, Leonardo Zumerkorn; IACCARINO, Corrado; RUBIANO, Andres M.; AMORIM, Robson Luis; TEIXEIRA, Manoel Jacobsen; PAIVA, Wellingson SilvaBackground Skull defects after decompressive craniectomy (DC) cause physiological changes in brain function and patients can have neurologic symptoms after the surgery. The objective of this study is to evaluate whether there are morphometric changes in the cortical surface and radiodensity of brain tissue in patients undergoing cranioplasty and whether those variables are correlated with neurological prognosis.Methods This is a prospective cohort with 30 patients who were submitted to cranioplasty and followed for 6 months. Patients underwent simple head CT before and after cranioplasty for morphometric and cerebral radiodensity assessment. A complete neurological exam with Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), modified Rankin Scale, and the Barthel Index was performed to assess neurological prognosis.Results There was an improvement in all symptoms of the syndrome of the trephined, specifically for headache (p = 0.004) and intolerance changing head position (p = 0.016). Muscle strength contralateral to bone defect side also improved (p = 0.02). Midline shift of intracranial structures decreased after surgery (p = 0.004). The Anterior Distance Difference (ADif) and Posterior Distance Difference (PDif) were used to assess morphometric changes and varied significantly after surgery. PDif was weakly correlated with MMSE (p = 0.03; r = -0.4) and Barthel index (p = 0.035; r = -0.39). The ratio between the radiodensities of gray matter and white matter (GWR) was used to assess cerebral radiodensity and was also correlated with MMSE (p = 0.041; r = -0.37).Conclusion Morphological anatomy and radiodensity of the cerebral cortex can be used as a tool to assess neurological prognosis after DC.
- Incremental Prognostic Value of Coagulopathy in Addition to the Crash Score in Traumatic Brain Injury Patients(2021) SOLLA, Davi J. Fontoura; AMORIM, Robson Luis Oliveira de; KOLIAS, Angelos G.; HUTCHINSON, Peter J.; ANDRADE, Almir Ferreira de; TEIXEIRA, Manoel Jacobsen; PAIVA, Wellingson SilvaBackground/objective Multivariable prognostic scores play an important role for clinical decision-making, information giving to patients/relatives, benchmarking and guiding clinical trial design. Coagulopathy has been implicated on trauma and critical care outcomes, but few studies have evaluated its role on traumatic brain injury (TBI) outcomes. Our objective was to verify the incremental prognostic value of routine coagulopathy parameters in addition to the CRASH-CT score to predict 14-day mortality in TBI patients. Methods This is a prospective cohort of consecutive TBI patients admitted to a tertiary university hospital Trauma intensive care unit (ICU) from March/2012 to January/2015. The prognostic performance of the coagulation parameters platelet count, prothrombin time (international normalized ratio, INR) and activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT) ratio was assessed through logistic regression adjusted for the original CRASH-CT score. A new model, CRASH-CT-Coag, was created and its calibration (Brier scores and Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) test), discrimination [area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) and the integrated discrimination improvement (IDI)] and clinical utility (net reclassification index) were compared to the original CRASH-CT score. Results A total 517 patients were included (median age 39 years, 85.1% male, median admission glasgow coma scale 8, neurosurgery on 44.9%). The 14-day mortality observed and predicted by the original CRASH-CT was 22.8% and 26.2%, respectively. Platelet count < 100,000/mm(3), INR > 1.2 and aPTT ratio > 1.2 were present on 11.3%, 65.0% and 27.2%, respectively, (at least one of these was altered on 70.6%). All three variables maintained statistical significance after adjustment for the CRASH-CT score. The CRASH-CT-Coag score outperformed the original score on calibration (brier scores 0.122 +/- 0.216 vs 0.132 +/- 0.202, mean difference 0.010, 95% CI 0.005-0.019, p = 0.036, respectively) and discrimination (AUC-ROC 0.854 +/- 0.020 vs 0.813 +/- 0.024, p = 0.014; IDI 5.0%, 95% CI 1.3-11.0%). Both scores showed the satisfactory H-L test results. The net reclassification index favored the new model. Considering the strata of low (< 10%), moderate (10-30%) and high (> 30%) risk of death, the CRASH-CT-Coag model yielded a global net correct reclassification of 22.9% (95% CI 3.8-43.4%). Conclusions The addition of early markers of coagulopathy-platelet count, INR and aPTT ratio-to the CRASH-CT score increased its accuracy. Additional studies are required to externally validate this finding and further investigate the coagulopathy role on TBI outcomes.