The influence of climate variables on dengue in Singapore

Página do item simplificado
dc.contributorSistema FMUSP-HC: Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo (FMUSP) e Hospital das Clínicas da FMUSP
dc.contributor.authorPINTO, Edna
dc.contributor.authorCOELHO, Micheline
dc.contributor.authorOLIVER, Leuda
dc.contributor.authorMASSAD, Eduardo
dc.date.accessioned2017-11-27T16:28:35Z
dc.date.available2017-11-27T16:28:35Z
dc.date.issued2011
dc.description.abstractIn this work we correlated dengue cases with climatic variables for the city of Singapore. This was done through a Poisson Regression Model (PRM) that considers dengue cases as the dependent variable and the climatic variables (rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature and relative humidity) as independent variables. We also used Principal Components Analysis (PCA) to choose the variables that influence in the increase of the number of dengue cases in Singapore, where PC1 (Principal component 1) is represented by temperature and rainfall and PC2 (Principal component 2) is represented by relative humidity. We calculated the probability of occurrence of new cases of dengue and the relative risk of occurrence of dengue cases influenced by climatic variable. The months from July to September showed the highest probabilities of the occurrence of new cases of the disease throughout the year. This was based on an analysis of time series of maximum and minimum temperature. An interesting result was that for every 2-10 degrees C of variation of the maximum temperature, there was an average increase of 22.2-184.6% in the number of dengue cases. For the minimum temperature, we observed that for the same variation, there was an average increase of 26.1-230.3% in the number of the dengue cases from April to August. The precipitation and the relative humidity, after analysis of correlation, were discarded in the use of Poisson Regression Model because they did not present good correlation with the dengue cases. Additionally, the relative risk of the occurrence of the cases of the disease under the influence of the variation of temperature was from 1.2-2.8 for maximum temperature and increased from 1.3-3.3 for minimum temperature. Therefore, the variable temperature (maximum and minimum) was the best predictor for the increased number of dengue cases in Singapore.
dc.description.indexMEDLINE
dc.description.sponsorshipCNPq
dc.description.sponsorshipCAPES
dc.description.sponsorshipFAPESP
dc.description.sponsorship[LIM01/HCFMUSP]
dc.identifier.citationINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH RESEARCH, v.21, n.6, p.415-426, 2011
dc.identifier.doi10.1080/09603123.2011.572279
dc.identifier.issn0960-3123
dc.identifier.urihttps://observatorio.fm.usp.br/handle/OPI/23095
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherTAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
dc.relation.ispartofInternational Journal of Environmental Health Research
dc.rightsrestrictedAccess
dc.rights.holderCopyright TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
dc.subjectdengue
dc.subjectPoisson Regression Model
dc.subjectPrincipal Component Analysis
dc.subjecttemperature
dc.subjectrelative risk
dc.subject.otherpopulation
dc.subject.otherhealth
dc.subject.wosEnvironmental Sciences
dc.subject.wosPublic, Environmental & Occupational Health
dc.titleThe influence of climate variables on dengue in Singapore
dc.typearticle
dc.type.categoryoriginal article
dc.type.versionpublishedVersion
dspace.entity.typePublication
hcfmusp.author.externalOLIVER, Leuda:Univ Sao Paulo, Dept Med, Sao Paulo, Brazil
hcfmusp.citation.scopus74
hcfmusp.contributor.author-fmusphcEDNA PINTO PEREIRA DE SOUSA
hcfmusp.contributor.author-fmusphcMICHELINE DE SOUSA ZANOTTI STAGLIORIO COELHO
hcfmusp.contributor.author-fmusphcEDUARDO MASSAD
hcfmusp.description.beginpage415
hcfmusp.description.endpage426
hcfmusp.description.issue6
hcfmusp.description.volume21
hcfmusp.origemWOS
hcfmusp.origem.pubmed21557124
hcfmusp.origem.scopus2-s2.0-84856191731
hcfmusp.origem.wosWOS:000299646900003
hcfmusp.publisher.cityABINGDON
hcfmusp.publisher.countryENGLAND
hcfmusp.relation.referenceAndrade IS, 2004, ESTUDO INFLUENCIA EL
hcfmusp.relation.referenceHales S, 2002, LANCET, V360, P830, DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(02)09964-6
hcfmusp.relation.referenceHalstead SB, 2008, ANNU REV ENTOMOL, V53, P273, DOI 10.1146/annurev.ento.53.103106.093326
hcfmusp.relation.referenceBurattini MN, 2008, EPIDEMIOL INFECT, V136, P309, DOI 10.1017/S0950268807008667
hcfmusp.relation.referenceCostello A, 2009, LANCET, V373, P1693, DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(09)60935-1
hcfmusp.relation.referencePatz JA, 2005, NATURE, V438, P310, DOI 10.1038/nature04188
hcfmusp.relation.referenceCamara FP, 2009, REV SOC BRAS MED TRO, V42, P137, DOI 10.1590/S0037-86822009000200008
hcfmusp.relation.referenceCoelho MZ, 2010, J ENV PUBLIC HLTH, V11, DOI [10.1155/2010/209270, DOI 10.1155/2010/209270]
hcfmusp.relation.referenceCoelho-Zanotti MSS, 2007, THESIS DOUTORADO MET
hcfmusp.relation.referenceDhang CC, 2005, TROPICAL BIOMEDICINE, V22, P39
hcfmusp.relation.referenceDonalísio Maria Rita, 2002, Rev. bras. epidemiol., V5, P259, DOI 10.1590/S1415-790X2002000300005
hcfmusp.relation.referenceHusain Tahir, 2008, Int J Environ Res Public Health, V5, P204, DOI 10.3390/ijerph5040204
hcfmusp.relation.referenceJetfen TH, 1997, AM J TROP MED HYG, V57, P285
hcfmusp.relation.referenceJohansson MA, 2009, PLOS NEGLECT TROP D, V3, DOI 10.1371/journal.pntd.0000382
hcfmusp.relation.referenceMinistry of Health of Singapore (MOH), 2005, FIN REP EXP PAN DENG
hcfmusp.relation.referenceMurray CJL, 1996, GLOBAL BURDEN DIS
hcfmusp.relation.referenceNational Environmental Agency (NEA), 2005, NEAS KEY OP STRAT DE
hcfmusp.relation.referenceOoi EE, 2008, CAD SAUDE PUBLICA, V25, P115
hcfmusp.relation.referenceOoi EE, 2001, DENGUE B, V25
hcfmusp.relation.referenceOoi EE, 2006, EMERG INFECT DIS, V12, P6
hcfmusp.relation.referenceParry ML, 2007, CONTRIBUTION WORKING
hcfmusp.relation.referenceSmith AW, 2008, MED CLIN N AM, V92, P1377
hcfmusp.relation.referenceWilder-Smith A, 2004, TROP MED INT HEALTH, V9, P305, DOI 10.1046/j.1365-3156.2003.01177.x
hcfmusp.relation.referenceWilder-Smith A, 2010, EPIDEMIOL INFECT, V138, P962, DOI 10.1017/S0950268810000683
hcfmusp.relation.referenceWilks D.S., 1995, STAT METHODS ATMOSPH, P467
hcfmusp.relation.referenceWorld Health Organization (WHO), 2010, DENG DENG HAEM
hcfmusp.scopus.lastupdate2024-05-17
relation.isAuthorOfPublication8fdf33a0-f678-4644-a667-5c1bb0f4030e
relation.isAuthorOfPublication5ad70dc3-de07-4243-956c-ec18c86d63b7
relation.isAuthorOfPublication2d14cb40-bd10-4412-aeb3-ff717514d3af
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery8fdf33a0-f678-4644-a667-5c1bb0f4030e
Arquivos
Pacote Original
Agora exibindo 1 - 1 de 1
Nenhuma Miniatura disponível
Nome:
art_PINTO_The_influence_of_climate_variables_on_dengue_in_2011.PDF
Tamanho:
999.89 KB
Formato:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Descrição:
publishedVersion (English)
Baixar
Coleções
Artigos e Materiais de Revistas Científicas - FM/MLS
Artigos e Materiais de Revistas Científicas - LIM/01