Local protection bubbles: an interpretation of the slowdown in the spread of coronavirus in the city of São Paulo, Brazil, in July 2020

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dc.contributorSistema FMUSP-HC: Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo (FMUSP) e Hospital das Clínicas da FMUSP
dc.contributor.authorPINTO, Jose Paulo Guedes
dc.contributor.authorMAGALHAES, Patricia Camargo
dc.contributor.authorFIGUEIREDO, Gerusa Maria
dc.contributor.authorALVES, Domingos
dc.contributor.authorANGEL, Diana Maritza Segura
dc.date.accessioned2024-02-15T14:52:28Z
dc.date.available2024-02-15T14:52:28Z
dc.date.issued2023
dc.description.abstractAfter four months of fighting the pandemic, the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil, en-tered a phase of relaxed social distancing measures in July 2020. Simulta-neously, there was a decline in the social distancing rate and a reduction in the number of cases, fatalities, and hospital bed occupancy. To understand the pandemic dynamics in the city of Sao Paulo, we developed a multi-agent simulation model. Surprisingly, the counter-intuitive results of the model fol-lowed the city's reality. We argue that this phenomenon could be attributed to local bubbles of protection that emerged in the absence of contagion net-works. These bubbles reduced the transmission rate of the virus, causing short and temporary reductions in the epidemic curve - but manifested as an un-stable equilibrium. Our hypothesis aligns with the virus spread dynamics ob-served thus far, without the need for ad hoc assumptions regarding the natu-ral thresholds of collective immunity or the heterogeneity of the population's transmission rate, which may lead to erroneous predictions. Our model was designed to be user-friendly and does not require any scientific or program-ming expertise to generate outcomes on virus transmission in a given loca-tion. Furthermore, as an input to start our simulation model, we developed the COVID-19 Protection Index as an alternative to the Human Development Index, which measures a given territory vulnerability to the coronavirus and includes characteristics of the health system and socioeconomic development, as well as the infrastructure of the city of Sao Paulo.eng
dc.description.indexMEDLINE
dc.description.indexPubMed
dc.description.indexWoS
dc.description.indexScopus
dc.description.sponsorshipTide Setubal Foundation
dc.description.sponsorshipFederal University of ABC
dc.identifier.citationCADERNOS DE SAUDE PUBLICA, v.39, n.11, article ID e00109522, 14p, 2023
dc.identifier.doi10.1590/0102-311XEN109522
dc.identifier.eissn1678-4464
dc.identifier.issn0102-311X
dc.identifier.urihttps://observatorio.fm.usp.br/handle/OPI/57994
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherCADERNOS SAUDE PUBLICAeng
dc.relation.ispartofCadernos de Saude Publica
dc.rightsopenAccesseng
dc.rights.holderCopyright CADERNOS SAUDE PUBLICAeng
dc.subjectSocial Distancingeng
dc.subjectCOVID-19eng
dc.subjectVirus Sheddingeng
dc.subject.otherheterogeneityeng
dc.subject.otherdurationeng
dc.subject.otherepidemiceng
dc.subject.wosPublic, Environmental & Occupational Healtheng
dc.titleLocal protection bubbles: an interpretation of the slowdown in the spread of coronavirus in the city of São Paulo, Brazil, in July 2020eng
dc.typearticleeng
dc.type.categoryoriginal articleeng
dc.type.versionpublishedVersioneng
dspace.entity.typePublication
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryEspanha
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryisoes
hcfmusp.author.externalPINTO, Jose Paulo Guedes:Univ Fed ABC, Alameda Univ S-N, BR-09606045 Sao Bernardo Do Campo, SP, Brazil
hcfmusp.author.externalMAGALHAES, Patricia Camargo:Univ Complutense Madrid, Madrid, Spain
hcfmusp.author.externalALVES, Domingos:Univ Sao Paulo, Fac Med Ribeirao Preto, Ribeirao Preto, Brazil
hcfmusp.author.externalANGEL, Diana Maritza Segura:Univ Sao Paulo, Escola Engn Sao Carlos, Sao Carlos, Brazil
hcfmusp.citation.scopus0
hcfmusp.contributor.author-fmusphcGERUSA MARIA FIGUEIREDO
hcfmusp.description.articlenumbere00109522
hcfmusp.description.issue11
hcfmusp.description.volume39
hcfmusp.origemWOS
hcfmusp.origem.pubmed38126417
hcfmusp.origem.scopus2-s2.0-85180782379
hcfmusp.origem.wosWOS:001130877300001
hcfmusp.publisher.cityRIO DE JANIEROeng
hcfmusp.publisher.countryBRAZILeng
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Artigos e Materiais de Revistas Científicas - FM/MPR
Artigos e Materiais de Revistas Científicas - COVID-19
Artigos e Materiais de Revistas Científicas - LIM/38
Artigos e Materiais de Revistas Científicas - ODS/03