Percentiles of predicted 10-year cardiovascular disease risk by sex and age in Brazil and their association with estimated risk of long-term atherosclerotic events

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dc.contributorSistema FMUSP-HC: Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo (FMUSP) e Hospital das Clínicas da FMUSP
dc.contributor.authorCESENA, Fernando Yue
dc.contributor.authorGENEROSO, Giuliano
dc.contributor.authorSANTOS, Itamar de S.
dc.contributor.authorDUNCAN, Bruce B.
dc.contributor.authorRIBEIRO, Antonio Luiz P.
dc.contributor.authorBRANT, Luisa Caldeira
dc.contributor.authorMILL, Jose Geraldo
dc.contributor.authorPEREIRA, Alexandre C.
dc.contributor.authorBITTENCOURT, Marcio Sommer
dc.contributor.authorSANTOS, Raul D.
dc.contributor.authorLOTUFO, Paulo A.
dc.contributor.authorBENSENOR, Isabela M.
dc.date.accessioned2024-02-15T14:39:04Z
dc.date.available2024-02-15T14:39:04Z
dc.date.issued2023
dc.description.abstractObjective: Expressing the cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in relation to peers may complement the estimation of absolute CVD risk. We aimed to determine 10-year CVD risk percentiles by sex and age in the Brazilian population and evaluate their association with estimated long-term atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) risk.Methods: A cross-sectional analysis of baseline data from the ELSA-Brasil study was conducted in individuals aged 40-74 years without prior ASCVD. Ten-year CVD risk and long-term ASCVD risk were estimated by the WHO risk score and the Multinational Cardiovascular Risk Consortium tool, respectively. Ten-year risk percentiles were determined by ranking the calculated risks within each sex and age group.Results: Ten-year CVD risk versus percentile plots were constructed for each sex and age group using data from 13,364 participants (55% females; median age, 52 [IQR, 46-59] years). Long-term ASCVD risk was calculated in 12,973 (97.1%) participants. Compared to individuals at the <25th risk percentile, those at the >= 75th percentile had a greater risk of being in the highest quartile of long-term risk (ORs [95% CIs] 6.57 [5.18-8.30] in females and 11.59 [8.42-15.96] in males) in regression models adjusted for age, race, education, and 10-year CVD risk. In both sexes, the association between risk percentile and long-term risk weakened after age 50. A tool for calculating 10-year CVD risk and the corresponding percentile is available at https://bit.ly/3CzPUi6.Conclusions: We established percentiles of predicted 10-year CVD risk by sex and age in the Brazilian population, which independently reflect the estimated long-term ASCVD risk in younger individuals.eng
dc.description.indexMEDLINE
dc.description.indexPubMed
dc.description.indexWoS
dc.description.indexScopus
dc.identifier.citationPREVENTIVE MEDICINE, v.177, article ID 107755, 9p, 2023
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.ypmed.2023.107755
dc.identifier.eissn1096-0260
dc.identifier.issn0091-7435
dc.identifier.urihttps://observatorio.fm.usp.br/handle/OPI/57818
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherACADEMIC PRESS INC ELSEVIER SCIENCEeng
dc.relation.ispartofPreventive Medicine
dc.rightsrestrictedAccesseng
dc.rights.holderCopyright ACADEMIC PRESS INC ELSEVIER SCIENCEeng
dc.subjectHeart disease risk factorseng
dc.subjectRisk assessmenteng
dc.subjectCardiovascular diseaseseng
dc.subjectASCVDeng
dc.subjectAwarenesseng
dc.subjectWorld Health Organizationeng
dc.subject.othercoronary-artery calciumeng
dc.subject.otherhealtheng
dc.subject.otherraceeng
dc.subject.othercholesteroleng
dc.subject.otherpreventioneng
dc.subject.otherprevalenceeng
dc.subject.otherstatementeng
dc.subject.otherupdateeng
dc.subject.othergendereng
dc.subject.wosPublic, Environmental & Occupational Healtheng
dc.subject.wosMedicine, General & Internaleng
dc.titlePercentiles of predicted 10-year cardiovascular disease risk by sex and age in Brazil and their association with estimated risk of long-term atherosclerotic eventseng
dc.typearticleeng
dc.type.categoryoriginal articleeng
dc.type.versionpublishedVersioneng
dspace.entity.typePublication
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryEstados Unidos
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryisous
hcfmusp.author.externalCESENA, Fernando Yue:Cenocor, Guarulhos, SP, Brazil; Rua Dr Ramos de Azevedo,159,sala 1510, BR-07012020 Guarulhos, SP, Brazil
hcfmusp.author.externalDUNCAN, Bruce B.:Univ Fed Rio Grande do Sul, Sch Med, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil; Fed Univ Rio Grande, Hosp Clin Porto Alegre, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil
hcfmusp.author.externalRIBEIRO, Antonio Luiz P.:Univ Fed Minas Gerais, Fac Med, Dept Internal Med, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil; Univ Fed Minas Gerais, Hosp Clin, Telehlth Ctr, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil
hcfmusp.author.externalBRANT, Luisa Caldeira:Univ Fed Minas Gerais, Fac Med, Dept Internal Med, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil
hcfmusp.author.externalMILL, Jose Geraldo:Univ Fed Espirito Santo, Dept Physiol Sci, Vitoria, ES, Brazil
hcfmusp.author.externalBITTENCOURT, Marcio Sommer:Univ Pittsburgh, Med Ctr, Heart & Vasc Inst, Pittsburgh, PA USA
hcfmusp.citation.scopus0
hcfmusp.contributor.author-fmusphcGIULIANO GENEROSO
hcfmusp.contributor.author-fmusphcITAMAR DE SOUZA SANTOS
hcfmusp.contributor.author-fmusphcALEXANDRE DA COSTA PEREIRA
hcfmusp.contributor.author-fmusphcRAUL DIAS DOS SANTOS FILHO
hcfmusp.contributor.author-fmusphcPAULO ANDRADE LOTUFO
hcfmusp.contributor.author-fmusphcISABELA JUDITH MARTINS BENSEñOR
hcfmusp.description.articlenumber107755
hcfmusp.description.volume177
hcfmusp.origemWOS
hcfmusp.origem.pubmed37931661
hcfmusp.origem.scopus2-s2.0-85176285213
hcfmusp.origem.wosWOS:001112568400001
hcfmusp.publisher.citySAN DIEGOeng
hcfmusp.publisher.countryUSAeng
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