External Validation of a Brazilian Predictive Nomogram for Pathologic Outcomes Following Radical Prostatectomy in Tertiary Teaching Institutions: the USP Nomograms

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dc.contributor Sistema FMUSP-HC: Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo (FMUSP) e Hospital das Clínicas da FMUSP
dc.contributor.author BASTIAN JUNIOR, Aguinel Jose FMUSP-HC
DALL'OGLIO, Marcos Francisco FMUSP-HC
CRIPPA, Alexandre
OLIVEIRA FILHO, Getulio Rodrigues de
SILVA, Ricardo Kupka da FMUSP-HC
dc.date.issued 2014
dc.identifier.citation INTERNATIONAL BRAZ J UROL, v.40, n.2, p.161-171, 2014
dc.identifier.issn 1677-5538
dc.identifier.uri http://observatorio.fm.usp.br/handle/OPI/7314
dc.description.abstract Purposes: (a) To externally validate the Crippa and colleagues' nomograms combining PSA, percentage of positive biopsy cores (PPBC) and biopsy Gleason score to predict organ-confined disease (OCD) in a contemporary sample of patients treated at a tertiary teaching institution. (b) To adjust such variables, resulting in predictive nomograms for OCD and seminal vesicle invasion (SVI): the USP nomograms. Materials and Methods: The accuracy of Crippa and colleagues' nomograms for OCD prediction was examined in 1002 men submitted to radical prostatectomy between 2005 and 2010 at the University of Sao Paulo (USP). ROC-derived area under the curve (AUC) and Brier scores were used to assess the discriminant properties of nomograms for OCD. Nomograms performance was explored graphically with LOESS smoothing plots. Furthermore, univariate analysis and logistic regression models targeted OCD and SVI. Variables consisted of PSA, PPBC, biopsy Gleason score and clinical stage. The resulted predictive nomograms for OCD and SVI were internally validated with bootstrapping and the same abovementioned procedures. Results: Crippa and colleagues' nomograms for OCD showed ROC AUC = 0.68 (CI: 0.65-0.70), Brier score = 0.17 and overestimation in LOESS plots. USP nomograms for OCD and SVI showed ROC AUC of 0.73 (CI: 0.70-0.76) and 0.77 (CI: 0.73-0.79), respectively, and Brier scores of 0.16 and 0.08, respectively. The LOESS plots showed excellent calibration for OCD and underestimation for SVI. Conclusions: Crippa and colleagues' nomograms showed moderate discrimination and considerable OCD overestimation. USP nomograms showed good discrimination for OCD and SVI, as well as excellent calibration for OCD and SVI underestimation.
dc.language.iso eng
dc.relation.ispartof International Braz J Urol
dc.rights openAccess
dc.subject Prostate; Prostatic Neoplasms; Risk Factors; Nomograms; Models; Statistical
dc.subject.other retropubic prostatectomy; partin tables; cancer; risk; stage; preservation; complication; prognosis; antigen; biopsy
dc.title External Validation of a Brazilian Predictive Nomogram for Pathologic Outcomes Following Radical Prostatectomy in Tertiary Teaching Institutions: the USP Nomograms
dc.type article
dc.rights.holder Copyright BRAZILIAN SOC UROL
dc.description.group LIM/55
dc.identifier.doi 10.1590/S1677-5538.IBJU.2014.02.05
dc.identifier.pmid 24856483
dc.type.category original article
dc.type.version publishedVersion
hcfmusp.author BASTIAN JUNIOR, Aguinel Jose:FM:
hcfmusp.author DALL'OGLIO, Marcos Francisco:FM:MCG
hcfmusp.author PIOVESAN, Luis Felipe:FM:
hcfmusp.author SILVA, Ricardo Kupka da:FM:
hcfmusp.author LEITE, Katia R. M.:FM:MCG
hcfmusp.author SROUGI, Miguel:FM:MCG
hcfmusp.origem.id 2-s2.0-84902652221
hcfmusp.origem.id WOS:000337913500006
hcfmusp.origem.id SCIELO:S1677-55382014000200161
hcfmusp.publisher.city RIO DE JANEIRO
hcfmusp.publisher.country BRAZIL
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dc.description.index MEDLINE
dc.identifier.eissn 1677-6119
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