Artigos e Materiais de Revistas Científicas - LIM/01

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A coleção de Artigos e Materiais de Revistas Científicas engloba artigos originais, artigos de revisão, artigos de atualização, artigos técnicos, relatos de experiências, resenhas, ensaios, editoriais, cartas ao editor, debates, notas científicas e técnicas, depoimentos, entrevistas e pontos de vista. Consideram-se como artigos científicos originais os trabalhos redigidos para divulgação de informações e resultados sobre determinada pesquisa científica, publicados em periódico científico após avaliação por outros pesquisadores.

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Toxoplasma gondii and Neospora caninum antibody seroprevalence and risk factors among dogs treated at Public Veterinary Hospitals in São Paulo, Brazil
(2023) SANTOS, Elidia Zotelli dos; SOARES, Herbert Souza; SANTOS, Stephanie Rodrigues dos; MORAES FILHO, Jonas; PENA, Hilda Fatima de Jesus; AMAKU, Marcos; GENNARI, Solange Maria
Dogs can be infected by Toxoplasma gondii and Neospora caninum, for which they function, respectively, as intermediate, and definitive hosts. In the present study seroprevalence against T. gondii and N. caninum antibodies, were determined by indirect fluorescent antibody test (cut off of 16 and 50, respectively), in dogs that were treated at public veterinary hospitals in the metropolitan region of Sao Paulo and risk factors were identified. Out of the 1,194 samples 125 (10.5%; 95% CI: 8.8-12.3%) were positive for T. gondii and 9 (0.75%, 95% CI: 0.34-1.4%) for N. caninum. For T. gondii, statistical differences were observed between the proportions of positive dogs and different zones of the municipality (p = 0.025), and age (p = 0.02), higher among older dogs. The keepers were invited to answer an epidemiological questionnaire to analyze risk factors, and 471 (39.4%) agreed to be interviewed, and among their dogs 65 (13.8%) were T. gondii seropositive. Age group above 8 years (OR = 3.63; 95% CI: 1.08-12.23) was a risk factor and having a defined breed (OR = 0.49; 95% CI: 0.25-0.96) was a protective factor for T. gondii infection. Because of the low number of dogs positive for N. caninum, risk factors for this coccidium were not determined.
Core Promoter and Pre-Core Variants of the Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) Are Frequent in Chronic Hepatitis B HBeAg-Negative Patients Infected by Genotypes A and D
(2023) REUTER, Tania; GOMES-GOUVEA, Michele Soares; CHUFFI, Samira; DUQUE, Ulisses Horst; PERINI, Waltesia; AZEVEDO, Raymundo Soares; PINHO, Joao Renato Rebello; LEWIS-XIMENEZ, Lia L.; VILLAR, Livia Melo; ESPUL, Carlos Alberto; PUJOL, Flor H.; ROMAN, Sonia
In Brazil, hepatitis B virus endemicity is low, moderate, or high in some areas, such as Espirito Santo State in the southeast region. In this study, we intend to characterize the basal core promoter (BCP) and pre-core region (PC) variants and their association with clinical/epidemiological disease patterns in patients infected with genotypes A and D. The study included 116 chronic hepatitis B patients from Espirito Santo State, Southeast Brazil, infected with genotypes A and D. Basal core promoter (BCP) and pre-core mutations were analyzed in these patients. The frequency of BCP and PC mutations was compared with age, HBeAg status, HBV genotype and subgenotype, HBV-DNA level, clinical classification, and transmission route. HBeAg-negative status was found in 101 (87.1%) patients: 87 (75.0%) were infected with genotype A (A1 = 85; A2 = 2) and 29 (25.0%) were infected with genotype D (D3 = 24; D4 = 3; D2 = 2). BCP + PC variants altogether were more frequent (48.1%) in genotype D than in genotype A strains (6.0%) (p < 0.001). When this evaluation was performed considering the cases that presented only the A1762T and/or G1764A (BCP) mutations, it was observed that the frequency was higher in genotype A (67.5%) compared to genotype D (7.4%) (p < 0.001). On the other hand, considering the samples with mutations only in positions G1896A and/or G1899A (PC), the frequency was higher in genotype D (75.8%) than in genotype A (6.9%) (p < 0.001). Interestingly, HBV DNA was lower than 2000 IU/mL especially when both BCP/PC mutations were present (p < 0.001) or when only PC mutations were detected (p = 0.047), reinforcing their role in viral replication.
Seroprevalence of Zika in Brazil stratified by age and geographic distribution
(2023) BOTOSSO, Viviane Fongaro; PRECIOSO, Alexander Roberto; WILDER-SMITH, Annelies; OLIVEIRA, Danielle Bruna Leal de; OLIVEIRA, Fabyano Bruno Leal de; OLIVEIRA, Cairo Monteiro De; SOARES, Camila Pereira; OLIVEIRA, Lucyana Trindade Leal; SANTO, Ralyria Mello Vieira dos; UTESCHER, Carla Lilian de Agostini; COUTINHO, Francisco Antonio Bezerra; MASSAD, Eduardo
Congenital Zika is a devastating consequence of maternal Zika virus infections. Estimates of age-dependent seroprevalence profiles are central to our understanding of the force of Zika virus infections. We set out to calculate the age-dependent seroprevalence of Zika virus infections in Brazil. We analyzed serum samples stratified by age and geographic location, collected from 2016 to 2019, from about 16,000 volunteers enrolled in a Phase 3 dengue vaccine trial led by the Institute Butantan in Brazil. Our results show that Zika seroprevalence has a remarkable age-dependent and geographical distribution, with an average age of the first infection varying from region to region, ranging from 4.97 (3.03-5.41) to 7.24 (6.98-7.90) years. The calculated basic reproduction number, $ {R}_0 $, varied from region to region, ranging from 1.18 (1.04-1.41) to 2.33 (1.54-3.85). Such data are paramount to determine the optimal age to vaccinate against Zika, if and when such a vaccine becomes available.
Better to be in agreement than in bad company A critical analysis of many kappa-like tests
(2023) SILVEIRA, Paulo Sergio Panse; SIQUEIRA, Jose Oliveira
We assessed several agreement coefficients applied in 2x2 contingency tables, which are commonly applied in research due to dichotomization. Here, we not only studied some specific estimators but also developed a general method for the study of any estimator candidate to be an agreement measurement. This method was developed in open-source R codes and it is available to the researchers. We tested this method by verifying the performance of several traditional estimators over all possible configurations with sizes ranging from 1 to 68 (total of 1,028,789 tables). Cohen's kappa showed handicapped behavior similar to Pearson's r, Yule's Q, and Yule's Y. Scott's pi, and Shankar and Bangdiwala's B seem to better assess situations of disagreement than agreement between raters. Krippendorff's alpha emulates, without any advantage, Scott's pi in cases with nominal variables and two raters. Dice's F1 and McNemar's chi-squared incompletely assess the information of the contingency table, showing the poorest performance among all. We concluded that Cohen's kappa is a measurement of association and McNemar's chi-squared assess neither association nor agreement; the only two authentic agreement estimators are Holley and Guilford's G and Gwet's AC1. The latter two estimators also showed the best performance over the range of table sizes and should be considered as the first choices for agreement measurement in contingency 2x2 tables. All procedures and data were implemented in R and are available to download from Harvard Dataverse https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/HMYTCK.
Chronic exposure to cigarette smoke transiently worsens the disease course in a mouse model of pulmonary paracoccidioidomycosis
(2022) BUCCHERI, Renata; DUARTE-NETO, Amaro Nunes; SILVA, Flaviano Luiz Batista; HADDAD, Gabrielle Carvalho; SILVA, Leandro Buffoni Roque da; AZEVEDO NETTO, Raymundo; LEDESMA, Felipe Lourenço; TABORDA, Carlos Pelleschi; BENARD, Gil
ABSTRACT Paracoccidioidomycosis (PCM) may present as an acute/subacute clinical form, characterized by a progressive disease arising from the airborne initial infection, or, most often, as an asymptomatic or subclinical infection that may manifest later during an individual’s life, the chronic form. Epidemiological studies show the existence of a strong association between smoking and the development of the chronic form. Current evidence demonstrates that cigarette smoke (CS) has immunosuppressive properties that could be implicated in the increasing susceptibility to the chronic form of PCM. To address this issue, we developed a murine model of a non-progressive pulmonary form of PCM that was exposed to CS at a magnitude that mimicked a moderate smoker. The chronic CS exposure started after 2 weeks and lasted up until 20 weeks post-infection, with the aim of mimicking human natural history, since it is estimated that individuals from endemic areas are infected early in life. The control group consisted of infected but not CS-exposed mice. We assessed the lung fungal burden (colony forming units [CFU]) and the area affected by the granulomatous inflammatory response, fungal dissemination to spleen and liver, and, by immunohistochemistry, the presence of CD4 and CD8 lymphocytes, CD68 and MAC-2 macrophages, and IFN-γ, IL-10 and TNF expressing cells within the granulomatous response. We detected a CS effect as early as 2 weeks after exposure (four weeks post-infection) when the lung CFU of exposed animals was significantly higher than in their non-exposed counterparts. At 12 weeks, the CS-exposed animals presented a more severe disease, as witnessed by the persistent higher lung fungal load (although it did not reach statistical significance [ p = 0.054]), greater dissemination to other organs, greater affected area of the lung, decreased IFN-γ/IL-10 ratio, and higher TNF expression within the granulomas, compared with CS-non-exposed mice. The number of CD4 and CD8 lymphocytes infiltrating the granulomas was similar between both mice groups, but there was a decrease in the number of MAC-2+ macrophages. No difference was noted in the CD68+ macrophage number. However, the follow-up in week 20 showed that the immunological effects of exposure to CS ceased, with both CS and NCS mice showing the same infectious features, i.e., a trend for resolution of the infection. In conclusion, we show that chronic CS-exposure alters the course of the disease in an experimental model of subclinical pulmonary PCM, confirming the epidemiological link between CS-exposure and the chronic form of PCM. However, we also show that this effect is transitory, being detected between 4- and 12-weeks post-infection but not thereafter. The possible immune mechanisms that mediate this effect and the reasons for its transitory effect are discussed.
Time-dependent vaccine efficacy estimation quantified by a mathematical model
(2023) LORIA, Jennifer; ALBANI, Vinicius V. L.; COUTINHO, Francisco A. B.; COVAS, Dimas T.; STRUCHINER, Claudio J.; ZUBELLI, Jorge P.; MASSAD, Eduardo
In this paper we calculate the variation of the estimated vaccine efficacy (VE) due to the time-dependent force of infection resulting from the difference between the moment the Clinical Trial (CT) begins and the peak in the outbreak intensity. Using a simple mathematical model we tested the hypothesis that the time difference between the moment the CT begins and the peak in the outbreak intensity determines substantially different values for VE. We exemplify the method with the case of the VE efficacy estimation for one of the vaccines against the new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2.
Effects of migration rates and vaccination on the spread of yellow fever in Latin American communities
(2023) SIMON, Sabrina; AMAKU, Marcos; MASSAD, Eduardo
Objective. To assess how relevant the flow of people between communities is, compared to vaccination and type of vector, on the spread and potential outbreaks of yellow fever in a disease-free host community.Methods. Using a SEIRV-SEI model for humans and vectors, we applied numerical simulations to the scenar-ios: (1) migration from an endemic community to a disease-free host community, comparing the performance of Haemagogus janthinomys and Aedes aegypti as vectors; (2) migration through a transit community located on a migratory route, where the disease is endemic, to a disease-free one; and (3) effects of different vaccina-tion rates in the host community, considering the vaccination of migrants upon arrival.Results. Results show no remarkable differences between scenarios 1 and 2. The type of vector and vacci-nation coverage in the host community are more relevant for the occurrence of outbreaks than migration rates, with H. janthinomys being more effective than A. aegypti.Conclusions. With vaccination being more determinant for a potential outbreak than migration rates, vac-cinating migrants on arrival may be one of the most effective measures against yellow fever. Furthermore, H. janthinomys is a more competent vector than A. aegypti at similar densities, but the presence of A. aegypti is a warning to maintain vaccination above recommended levels.
Modeling criminal careers of different levels of offence
(2023) RAIMUNDO, Silvia Martorano; YANG, Hyun Mo; RUBIO, Felipe Alves; GREENHALGH, David; MASSAD, Eduardo
We set up and analyse a mathematical model, the Serious Crime Model, which describes the interaction of mild and serious offenders and potential criminals. However we get more complete results for a simpler version of this model, the Mild Crime Model, with no serious offenders. For the full Serious Crime Model there are two key parameters R 10 and R 20 corresponding to the basic reproduction number in the mathematics of infectious diseases, which determine the behaviour of the system. For the Simpler Mild Crime Model there is just one such parameter R 10 . Both forward and backward bifurcation can occur for this second model with two subcritical non-trivial equilibria possible for R 10 < 1 in the backwards case. For backwards bifurcation there is another threshold value R*0 such that the upper non-trivial equilibrium is unstable for R 10 < R*0 and stable for R 10 > R*0. For for-wards bifurcation there is a second additional threshold value R 0** such that the stability of the unique non-trivial equilibrium switches from unstable to stable as R 10 passes through R ** 0 . At the end we return to the full Serious Crime Model and discuss the behaviour of this model. The results are meaningful and interesting because in all of the other epidemiolog-ical and sociological models of which we are aware, analogous thresholds to R*0 and R ** 0 do not exist. For forwards bifurcation the unique non-trivial equilibrium, and for backwards bifurcation with two subcritical endemic equilibria the higher non-trivial equilibrium, are also usually always locally asymptotically stable. So our models exhibit unusual and inter-esting behaviour.(c) 2023 The Authors.
Effects of functional electro-stimulation in the theta-band coherence: a quantitative electroencephalograph study
(2011) SANTOS, Joana; VELASQUES, Bruna; PAES, Flavia; MACHADO, Sergio; ARIAS-CARRION, Oscar; CUNHA, Marlo; BUDDE, Henning; ANGHINAH, Renato; BASILE, Luis; CAGY, Mauricio; PIEDADE, Roberto; RIBEIRO, Pedro
Introduction. Functional electrical stimulation (FES) is a technique used for rehabilitation of motor and sensory dysfunction and consisted in the application of neuromuscular electrical stimulation concurrently with a functional activity. Previous studies suggest that sensory motor processing during FES stimulation of hand is similar to that of voluntary hand movement. Aim. To examine the changes in theta band (4-8 Hz) coherence in the centro-parietal and temporo-parietal junction during a FES task. Our hypothesis is that different conditions of electro-stimulation can produce changes in the theta band coherence in the sensory-motor and multisensory integration. Subjects and methods. The sample was composed of 24 students, male (n=14) and female (n=10), between 25 and 40 years old. Subjects were randomly distributed in three groups: control group (n = 8), G24 (n = 8) and G36 (n = 8). The control group simulated four blocks without electrostimulation been applied. The G24 group was exposed to four blocks of electrostimulation. The G36 group was exposed to six blocks of electrostimulation. We employed FES equipment to stimulate the extension of the right index finger and the electroencephalographic signal was simultaneously recorded. Results. A main effect was found for the condition, block and electrode in the centro-parietal junction, although we only found a main effect for condition and electrode in the temporo-parietal junction. Conclusion. Our results suggest that the functional coupling between the central and parietal areas is directly connected to the priming memory function, although the coupling between temporal and parietal areas is related to the working memory.
hybridModels: An R Package for the Stochastic Simulation of Disease Spreading in Dynamic Networks
(2020) MARQUES, Fernando S.; GRISI-FILHO, Jose H. H.; AMAKU, Marcos; SILVA, Jean C. R.; ALMEIDA, Erivania C.; SILVA JUNIOR, Jose L.
Disease spreading simulations are traditionally performed using coupled differential equations. However, in the setting of metapopulations, most of the solutions provided by this method do not account for the dynamic topography of subpopulations. Conversely, the alternative approach of individual-based modeling (IBM) may add computational cost and complexity. Hybrid models allow for the study of disease spreading because they combine both aforementioned approaches by separating them across different scales: a local scale that addresses subpopulation dynamics using coupled differential equations and a global scale that addresses the contact between these subpopulations using IBM. We present a simple way of simulating the spread of disease in dynamic networks using the high-level statistical computational language R and the hybridModels package. We built four examples using disease spread models at the local scale in several different networks: an animal movement network; a three-node network, whose model solution using a stochastic simulation algorithm is compared with the ordinary differential equations approach; the commuting of individuals between patches, which we compare with the permanent migration of individuals; and the commuting of individuals within the metropolitan area of Sao Paulo.
APEx: A collaborative question database for medical student assessment
(2023) VIEIRA, Joaquim Edson; SIQUEIRA, Jose Oliveira; SILVEIRA, Paulo Sergio Panse
Modeling VI and VDRL feedback functions: Searching normative rules through computational simulation
(2023) SILVEIRA, Paulo Sergio Panse; SIQUEIRA, Jose de Oliveira; BERNARDY, Joao Lucas; SANTIAGO, Jessica; MENESES, Thiago Cersosimo; PORTELA, Bianca Sanches; BENVENUTI, Marcelo Frota
We present the mathematical description of feedback functions of variable interval and variable differential reinforcement of low rates as functions of schedule size only. These results were obtained using an R script named Beak, which was built to simulate rates of behavior interacting with simple schedules of reinforcement. Using Beak, we have simulated data that allow an assessment of different reinforcement feedback functions. This was made with unparalleled precision, as simulations provide huge samples of data and, more importantly, simulated behavior is not changed by the reinforcement it produces. Therefore, we can vary response rates systematically. We've compared different reinforcement feedback functions for random interval schedules, using the following criteria: meaning, precision, parsimony, and generality. Our results indicate that the best feedback function for the random interval schedule was published by Baum (1981). We also propose that the model used by Killeen (1975) is a viable feedback function for the random differential reinforcement of low rates schedule. We argue that Beak paves the way for greater understanding of schedules of reinforcement, addressing still open questions about quantitative features of simple schedules. Also, Beak could guide future experiments that use schedules as theoretical and methodological tools.
Influence of age on the effectiveness and duration of protection of Vaxzevria and CoronaVac vaccines: A population-based study
(2022) CERQUEIRA-SILVA, Thiago; OLIVEIRA, Vinicius de Araujo; BOAVENTURA, Viviane S.; PESCARINI, Julia M.; JUNIOR, Juracy Bertoldo; MACHADO, Tales Mota; FLORES-ORTIZ, Renzo; PENNA, Gerson O.; ICHIHARA, Maria Yury; BARROS, Jacson Venancio de; BARRETO, Mauricio L.; WERNECK, Guilherme Loureiro; BARRAL-NETTO, Manoel
Background Aging influences COVID-19 severity and response to vaccination, but previous vaccine effectiveness (VE) analyzes lack the power to evaluate its role in subgroups within the elderly age group. Here we analyzed the impact of age on viral vector and inactivated virus vaccines' effectiveness, the main platforms used in low- and middle-income countries. Methods We report a retrospective longitudinal study of 75,919,840 Brazilian vaccinees from January 18 to July 24, 2021, evaluating documented infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), COVID-19-related hospitalisation, ICU admission, and death. Negative binomial regression models adjusted for sociodemographic characteristics were used for VE estimation. Findings The overall analyzes of full vaccination showed VE against hospitalisation, ICU admission, and death of 91 center dot 4% (95%CI:90 center dot 1-92 center dot 5), 91 center dot 1% (95%CI:88 center dot 9-92 center dot 9) and 92 center dot 3% (95%CI:90 center dot 5- 93 center dot 7) for Vaxzevria and 71 center dot 2% (95%CI:70 center dot 0-72 center dot 4), 72 center dot 2% (95%CI:70 center dot 2-74 center dot 0) and 73 center dot 7% (95%CI:72 center dot 1-75 center dot 2) for CoronaVac, respectively. VE for all outcomes is progressively lower with age. In fully-Vaxzevria-vaccinated individuals aged < 60 years, VE against death was 96.5% (95%CI:82.1- 99.3) versus 68 center dot 5% (95%CI:40 center dot 0-83 center dot 4) in those >= 90 years. Among fully-CoronaVac-vaccinated individuals, VE against death was 84.8% (95%CI:77.1- 89.9) in those < 60 years compared to 63.5 (95%CI 58.7-67.7) for vaccinees aged 80-89 years and 48 center dot 6%; (95%CI:35 center dot 0-59 center dot 3) for individuals aged >= 90 years. Post-vaccination daily cumulative incidence curves for all outcomes showed increased risk from younger to elder decades of life. There was no increase in the incidence of hospitalisation for individuals <60 years vaccinated during the same period as those aged >= 90 years. Interpretation Although both vaccines have been effective in protecting against infection, hospitalization and death; Vaxzevria and CoronaVac demonstrated high effectiveness against severe outcomes for individuals up to 79 years of age. Our results reinforce the idea that booster doses should be carefully considered in elders. Funding This study was partially supported by a donation from the ""Fazer o bem faz bem"" program.
Cirrhosis and hernia repair in a cohort of 6352 patients in a tertiary hospital Risk assessment and survival analysis
(2022) PIPEK, Leonardo Zumerkorn; CORTEZ, Vitor Santos; TABA, Joao Victor; SUZUKI, Milena Oliveira; NASCIMENTO, Fernanda Sayuri do; MATTOS, Vitoria Carneiro de; MORAES, Walter Augusto; IUAMOTO, Leandro Ryuchi; HSING, Wu Tu; CARNEIRO-D'ALBUQUERQUE, Luiz Augusto; MEYER, Alberto; ANDRAUS, Wellington
The prevalence of hernias in patient with cirrhosis can reach up to 40%. The pathophysiology of cirrhosis is closely linked to that of the umbilical hernia, but other types are also common in this population. The aim of this study is to evaluate factors that influence in the prognosis after hernia repair in patients with cirrhosis. A historical cohort of 6419 patients submitted to hernia repair was gathered. Clinical, epidemiological data and hernia characteristics were obtained. For patient with cirrhosis, data from exams, surgery and follow-up outcomes were also analyzed. Survival curves were constructed to assess the impact of clinical and surgical variables on survival. 342 of the 6352 herniated patients were cirrhotic. Patient with cirrhosis had a higher prevalence of umbilical hernia (67.5% x 24.2%, P<.001) and a lower prevalence of epigastric (1.8% x 9.0%, P<.001) and lumbar (0% x 0.18%, P=.022). There were no significant differences in relation to inguinal hernia (P=.609). Ascites was present in 70.1% of patient with cirrhosis and its prevalence was different in relation to the type of hernia (P<.001). The survival curve showed higher mortality for emergency surgery, MELD>14 and ascites (HR 12.6 [3.79-41.65], 4.5 [2.00-10.34], and 6.1 [1.15-20.70], respectively, P<.05). Hernia correction surgery in patient with cirrhosis has a high mortality, especially when performed under urgent conditions associated with more severe clinical conditions of patients, such as the presence of ascites and elevated MELD.
Temporal Trends of Acute Hepatitis A in Brazil and Its Regions
(2022) GRANDI, Giuliano; LOPEZ, Luis Fernandez; BURATTINI, Marcelo Nascimento
Background: Hepatitis A is responsible for 126,000,000 cases of acute viral hepatitis distributed heterogeneously worldwide, with a high disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rate, especially in low-income countries. Data related to Hepatitis A provides information to improve control measures and identify the population at risk. This study aims to analyze temporal trends of Hepatitis A in Brazil and its regions from 2007 to 2018, based on official notification data. Methods: Data related to Hepatitis A reported cases from 2007 to 2018 were fitted to a joinpoint model by Brazilian regions, age groups, and gender, allowing the calculation of average annual percentage change (AAPC) and annual percentage change (APC) to estimate trends of Hepatitis A in Brazil. Findings: From 2007 to 2018, 65,284 Hepatitis A cases notified in Brazil were available for analysis. The Northeast Region reported 18,732 (28.69%) cases, followed by the North Region reporting 18,430 (28.23%), the Southeast Region reporting 14,073 (21.55%), the South Region reporting 7909 (12.11%), and the Central-West Region reporting 6140 (9.4%), respectively. Temporal trend analysis showed that Hepatitis A incidence decreased from 2007 to 2016 in all Brazilian regions for individuals less than 20 years old, but increased in the South and Southeast males between 20 to 39 years after 2016. Conclusions: Hepatitis A endemicity is heterogeneous among Brazilian regions. In addition, an unexpected outbreak of HAV among Southeast and South adult males in 2016 resembles the outbreak in Europe, revealing a vulnerable population that should be prioritized by vaccination programs and control measures.
Rachlin's Extended Self: Influences on a Brazilian Research Group
(2023) BERNARDY, Joao Lucas; SANTIAGO, Jessica B.; SIQUEIRA, Jose Oliveira; SILVEIRA, Paulo Sergio Panse; SOUZA, Altay de; BENVENUTI, Marcelo Frota
We pay tribute to Rachlin's work stating that researching and writing for posterity is an act of self-control and altruism. We show how Rachlin's work influenced a series of seminars at the University of Sao Paulo (Brazil) based on his book from 1989, Judgment, Decision, and Choice. This influence is illustrated through two empirical exercises conducted during our seminars, where students were actively involved in data collection and analysis. The first exercise is about judgment of randomness involving coin tossing. The second is a replication of a procedure by Jones and Rachlin (2006) about social discounting of monetary quantities. We use these empirical examples to highlight some of Rachlin's major contributions to the science of behavior and their implications to our seminars and to ourselves as researchers.
MICRObiota on BILIOpancreatic malignant diseases [MICROBILIO]: A systematic review
(2022) MATTOS, Vitoria Carneiro de; NASCIMENTO, Fernanda Sayuri do; SUZUKI, Milena Oliveira; TABA, Joao Victor; PIPEK, Leonardo Zumerkorn; MORAES, Walter Augusto Fabio; CORTEZ, Vitor Santos; KUBRUSLY, Marcia Saldanha; TORSANI, Matheus Belloni; IUAMOTO, Leandro; HSING, Wu Tu; CARNEIRO-D'ALBUQUERQUE, Luiz Augusto; MEYER, Alberto; ANDRAUS, Wellington
Introduction: The increase in the incidence of pancreatic and biliary cancers has attracted the search for methods of early detection of diseases and biomarkers. The authors propose to analyze new findings on the association between microbiota and Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma (PDAC) or Cholangiocarcinoma (CCA). Methods: This systematic review was carried out according to the items of Preferred Reports for Systematic Reviews and Protocol Meta-Analysis (PRISMA-P). This study was registered by the Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO), identification code CRD42020192748 before the review was carried out. Articles were selected from the PUBMED, EMBASE, and Cochrane databases.Results: Most studies (86.67%) used 16s rRNA as a sequencing method. The main comorbidities found were diabe-tes mellitus, systemic arterial hypertension, and dyslipidemia. Many studies were limited by the small number of participants, but the biases were mostly low. There was very little concordance about the composition of the microbiome of different sites, for both case and control groups when compared to other studies' results. Bile sam-ple analysis was the one with a greater agreement between studies, as three out of four studies found Escherichia in cases of CCA.Conclusion: There was great disagreement in the characterization of both the microbiota of cases and control groups. Studies are still scarce, making it difficult to adequately assess the data in this regard. It was not possible to specify any marker or to associate any genus of microbiota bacteria with PDAC or CCA.
EPICOVID19 protocol: repeated serological surveys on SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Brazil
(2020) HALLAL, Pedro Curi; BARROS, Fernando C.; SILVEIRA, Mariangela Freitas; BARROS, Aluisio Jardim Dornellas de; DELLAGOSTIN, Odir Antonio; PELLANDA, Lucia Campos; STRUCHINER, Claudio Jose; BURATTINI, Marcelo Nascimento; HARTWIG, Fernando Pires; MENEZES, Ana Maria Baptista; HORTA, Bernardo Lessa; VICTORA, Cesar Gomes
The first case of COVID-19 was reported in China in December 2019, and, as the virus has spread worldwide, the World Health Organization declared it a pandemic. Estimates on the number of COVID-19 cases do not reflect it real magnitude as testing is limited. Population based data on the proportion of the population with antibodies is relevant for planning public health policies. We aim to assess the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, presence of signs and symptoms of COVID-19, and adherence to isolation measures. A random sample comprising 133 sentinel cities from all states of the country will be selected. Three serological surveys, three weeks apart, will be conducted. The most populous municipality in each intermediate region of the country, defined by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, was chosen as sentinel city. In each city, 25 census tracts will be selected, and 10 households will be systematically sampled in each tract, totaling 33,250 participants. In each household, one inhabitant will be randomly selected to be interviewed and tested for antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, using WONDFO SARS-CoV-2 Antibody Test. By evaluating a representative sample of Brazilian sentinel sites, this study will provide essential information for the design of health policies.
Regional differences and temporal trend analysis of Hepatitis B in Brazil
(2022) GRANDI, Giuliano; LOPEZ, Luis Fernandez; BURATTINI, Marcelo Nascimento
Background Burden disease related to chronic HBV infection is increasing worldwide. Monitoring Hepatitis B occurrence is difficult due to intrinsic characteristics of the infection, nonetheless analyzing this information improves strategic planning towards reducing the burden related to chronic infection. In this line of thought, this study aims to analyze national and regional epidemiology of Hepatitis B and it's temporal trends based on Brazilian reported cases. Methods Data obtained from the Brazilian National Notifiable Disease Reporting System (SINAN) from 2007 to 2018 were classified by infection status with an original classification algorithm, had their temporal trends analyzed by Joinpoint regression model and were correlated with gender, age and region. Results Of the 487,180 hepatitis B cases notified to SINAN, 97.65% had it infection status correctly classified by the new algorithm. Hepatitis B detection rate, gender and age-distribution were different among Brazilian regions. Overall, detection rates remained stable from 2007 to 2018, achieving their maximal value (56.1 cases per 100,000 inhabitants) in North region. However, there were different temporal trends related to different hepatitis B status and age. Women mean age at notification were always inferior to those of men and the difference was higher in Central-West, North and Northeast regions. Conclusion Hepatitis B affects heterogeneously different populations throughout Brazilian territory. The differences shown in its temporal trends, regional, gender and age-related distribution helps the planning and evaluation of control measures in Brazil.
Nowcasting and forecasting COVID-19 waves: the recursive and stochastic nature of transmission
(2022) ALBANI, V. V. L.; ALBANI, R. A. S.; MASSAD, E.; ZUBELLI, J. P.
We propose a parsimonious, yet effective, susceptible-exposed-infected-removed-type model that incorporates the time change in the transmission and death rates. The model is calibrated by Tikhonov-type regularization from official reports from New York City (NYC), Chicago, the State of Sao Paulo, in Brazil and British Columbia, in Canada. To forecast, we propose different ways to extend the transmission parameter, considering its estimated values. The forecast accuracy is then evaluated using real data from the above referred places. All the techniques accurately provided forecast scenarios for periods 15 days long. One of the models effectively predicted the magnitude of the four waves of infections in NYC, including the one caused by the Omicron variant for periods of 45 days using out-of-sample data.

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