GERUSA MARIA FIGUEIREDO

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Departamento de Medicina Preventiva, Faculdade de Medicina - Docente
LIM/38 - Laboratório de Epidemiologia e Imunobiologia, Hospital das Clínicas, Faculdade de Medicina

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  • article 0 Citação(ões) na Scopus
    Local protection bubbles: an interpretation of the slowdown in the spread of coronavirus in the city of São Paulo, Brazil, in July 2020
    (2023) PINTO, Jose Paulo Guedes; MAGALHAES, Patricia Camargo; FIGUEIREDO, Gerusa Maria; ALVES, Domingos; ANGEL, Diana Maritza Segura
    After four months of fighting the pandemic, the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil, en-tered a phase of relaxed social distancing measures in July 2020. Simulta-neously, there was a decline in the social distancing rate and a reduction in the number of cases, fatalities, and hospital bed occupancy. To understand the pandemic dynamics in the city of Sao Paulo, we developed a multi-agent simulation model. Surprisingly, the counter-intuitive results of the model fol-lowed the city's reality. We argue that this phenomenon could be attributed to local bubbles of protection that emerged in the absence of contagion net-works. These bubbles reduced the transmission rate of the virus, causing short and temporary reductions in the epidemic curve - but manifested as an un-stable equilibrium. Our hypothesis aligns with the virus spread dynamics ob-served thus far, without the need for ad hoc assumptions regarding the natu-ral thresholds of collective immunity or the heterogeneity of the population's transmission rate, which may lead to erroneous predictions. Our model was designed to be user-friendly and does not require any scientific or program-ming expertise to generate outcomes on virus transmission in a given loca-tion. Furthermore, as an input to start our simulation model, we developed the COVID-19 Protection Index as an alternative to the Human Development Index, which measures a given territory vulnerability to the coronavirus and includes characteristics of the health system and socioeconomic development, as well as the infrastructure of the city of Sao Paulo.