Percentiles of predicted 10-year cardiovascular disease risk by sex and age in Brazil and their association with estimated risk of long-term atherosclerotic events

Abstract

Objective: Expressing the cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in relation to peers may complement the estimation of absolute CVD risk. We aimed to determine 10-year CVD risk percentiles by sex and age in the Brazilian population and evaluate their association with estimated long-term atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) risk.Methods: A cross-sectional analysis of baseline data from the ELSA-Brasil study was conducted in individuals aged 40-74 years without prior ASCVD. Ten-year CVD risk and long-term ASCVD risk were estimated by the WHO risk score and the Multinational Cardiovascular Risk Consortium tool, respectively. Ten-year risk percentiles were determined by ranking the calculated risks within each sex and age group.Results: Ten-year CVD risk versus percentile plots were constructed for each sex and age group using data from 13,364 participants (55% females; median age, 52 [IQR, 46-59] years). Long-term ASCVD risk was calculated in 12,973 (97.1%) participants. Compared to individuals at the <25th risk percentile, those at the >= 75th percentile had a greater risk of being in the highest quartile of long-term risk (ORs [95% CIs] 6.57 [5.18-8.30] in females and 11.59 [8.42-15.96] in males) in regression models adjusted for age, race, education, and 10-year CVD risk. In both sexes, the association between risk percentile and long-term risk weakened after age 50. A tool for calculating 10-year CVD risk and the corresponding percentile is available at https://bit.ly/3CzPUi6.Conclusions: We established percentiles of predicted 10-year CVD risk by sex and age in the Brazilian population, which independently reflect the estimated long-term ASCVD risk in younger individuals.