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dc.contributorSistema FMUSP-HC: Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo (FMUSP) e Hospital das Clínicas da FMUSP-
dc.contributor.authorSTRUCHINER, Claudio Jose-
dc.contributor.authorROCKLOEV, Joacim-
dc.contributor.authorWILDER-SMITH, Annelies-
dc.contributor.authorMASSAD, Eduardo-
dc.identifier.citationPLOS ONE, v.10, n.8, article ID e0136286, 14p, 2015-
dc.description.abstractIn Singapore, the frequency and magnitude of dengue epidemics have increased significantly over the past 40 years. It is important to understand the main drivers for the rapid increase in dengue incidence. We studied the relative contributions of putative drivers for the rise of dengue in Singapore: population growth, climate parameters and international air passenger arrivals from dengue endemic countries, for the time period of 1974 until 2011. We used multivariable Poisson regression models with the following predictors: Annual Population Size; Aedes Premises Index; Mean Annual Temperature; Minimum and Maximum Temperature Recorded in each year; Annual Precipitation and Annual Number of Air Passengers arriving from dengue-endemic South-East Asia to Singapore. The relative risk (RR) of the increase in dengue incidence due to population growth over the study period was 42.7, while the climate variables (mean and minimum temperature) together explained an RR of 7.1 (RR defined as risk at the end of the time period relative to the beginning and goodness of fit associated with the model leading to these estimates assessed by pseudo-R2 equal to 0.83). Estimating the extent of the contribution of these individual factors on the increasing dengue incidence, we found that population growth contributed to 86% while the residual 14% was explained by increase in temperature. We found no correlation with incoming air passenger arrivals into Singapore from dengue endemic countries. Our findings have significant implications for predicting future trends of the dengue epidemics given the rapid urbanization with population growth in many dengue endemic countries. It is time for policy-makers and the scientific community alike to pay more attention to the negative impact of urbanization and urban climate on diseases such as dengue.-
dc.description.sponsorshipEuropean Commission [282589]-
dc.description.sponsorshipBrazilian Research Council (CNPq)-
dc.description.sponsorshipState of Rio de Janeiro Research Funding Agency (FAPERJ)-
dc.relation.ispartofPlos One-
dc.titleIncreasing Dengue Incidence in Singapore over the Past 40 Years: Population Growth, Climate and Mobility-
dc.rights.holderCopyright PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE-
dc.subject.wosMultidisciplinary Sciences-
dc.type.categoryoriginal article-
dc.type.versionpublishedVersion-, Claudio Jose:Fundacao Oswaldo Cruz, Rio De Janeiro, Brazil; Univ Estado Rio De Janeiro, Inst Social Med, Rio De Janeiro, Brazil-, Joacim:Umea Univ, Dept Publ Hlth & Clin Med, Epidemiol & Global Hlth Unit, Umea, Sweden-, Annelies:Umea Univ, Dept Publ Hlth & Clin Med, Epidemiol & Global Hlth Unit, Umea, Sweden; Nanyang Technol Univ, Lee Kong Chian Sch Med, Singapore 639798, Singapore-
hcfmusp.publisher.citySAN FRANCISCO-
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Artigos e Materiais de Revistas Científicas - FM/MLS
Departamento de Medicina Legal, Ética Médica e Medicina Social e do Trabalho - FM/MLS

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LIM/01 - Laboratório de Informática Médica

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ODS/03 - Saúde e bem-estar

Artigos e Materiais de Revistas Científicas - ODS/11
ODS/11 - Cidades e comunidades sustentáveis

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