Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://observatorio.fm.usp.br/handle/OPI/1190
Title: A Cost-Effectiveness-Assessing Model of Vaccination for Varicella and Zoster
Authors: COMBA, M.MARTORANO-RAIMUNDO, S.VENTURINO, E.
Citation: MATHEMATICAL MODELLING OF NATURAL PHENOMENA, v.7, n.3, p.62-77, 2012
Abstract: A decision analytical model is presented and analysed to assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of routine vaccination against varicella and herpes-zoster, or shingles. These diseases have as common aetiological agent the varicella-zoster virus (VZV). Zoster can more likely occur in aged people with declining cell-mediated immunity. The general concern is that universal varicella vaccination might lead to more cases of zoster: with more vaccinated children exposure of the general population to varicella infectives become smaller and thus a larger proportion of older people will have weaker immunity to VZV, leading to more cases of reactivation of zoster. Our compartment model shows that only two possible equilibria exist, one without varicella and the other one where varicella arid zoster both thrive. Threshold quantities to distinguish these cases are derived. Cost estimates on a possible herd vaccination program are discussed indicating a possible tradeoff choice.
Appears in Collections:Artigos e Materiais de Revistas Científicas - FM/Outros
Artigos e Materiais de Revistas Científicas - LIM/01

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