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Title: Preventable fractions of colon and breast cancers by increasing physical activity in Brazil: perspectives from plausible counterfactual scenarios
Authors: REZENDE, Leandro Fornias Machado deGARCIA, Leandro Martin TotaroMIELKE, Gregore IvenLEE, Dong HoonWU, KanaGIOVANNUCCI, EdwardELUF-NETO, Jose
Citation: CANCER EPIDEMIOLOGY, v.56, p.38-45, 2018
Abstract: Background: Physical activity is associated with lower risk of colon and breast cancers. Herein we estimated preventable fractions of colon and breast cancers in Brazil by increasing population-wide physical activity to different counterfactual scenarios. Methods: We used data from a representative national survey in Brazil and corresponding relative risks of colon and postmenopausal breast cancers from a meta-analysis. Estimated cancer incidence was retrieved from GLOBOCAN and Brazilian National Cancer Institute. Five counterfactual scenarios for physical activity were considered: (i) theoretical minimum risk exposure level (>= 8,000 metabolic equivalent of tasks-minute/week-MET-min/week); (ii) physical activity recommendation (>= 600 MET-min/week); (iii) a 10% reduction in prevalence of insufficient physical inactivity (< 600 MET-min/week); (iv) physical activity level in each state equals the most active state in Brazil; (v) closing the gender differences in physical activity. Results: About 19% (3,630 cases) of colon cancers and 12% (6,712 cases) of postmenopausal breast cancers could be prevented by increasing physical activity to >= 8,000 MET-min/week. Plausible counterfactual scenarios suggested the following impact on cancer prevention: reaching physical activity recommendation: 1.7% (1,113 cases) of breast and 6% (1,137 cases) of colon; 10% reduction in physical inactivity prevalence: 0.2% (111 cases) of breast and 0.6% (114 cases) of colon; most active state scenario: 0.3% (168 cases) of breast and 1% (189 cases) of colon; reducing gender differences in physical activity: 1.1% (384 cases) of breast and 0.6% (122 cases) of colon. Conclusions: High levels of physical activity are required to achieve a sizable impact on breast and colon cancer prevention in Brazil.
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Artigos e Materiais de Revistas Científicas - FM/MPR
Departamento de Medicina Preventiva - FM/MPR

Artigos e Materiais de Revistas Científicas - LIM/38
LIM/38 - Laboratório de Epidemiologia e Imunobiologia

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