Five-year survival, disability, and recurrence after first-ever stroke in a middle-income country: A population-based study in Joinvile, Brazil

Abstract

Background Information about long-term outcomes after stroke in developing countries provided by population-based methodologies is scarce. Aim This study aimed to know outcomes five years after a first-ever stroke in Joinville, Brazil. Methods Data were extracted from the Joinville Stroke Registry about all patients who had strokes in Joinville in 2010 and were followed up to 2015. Stroke recurrence, Kaplan-Meier survival probabilities, functional outcomes, and causes of death were ascertained at 30 days, six months, one and five years. Results A total of 399 strokes were studied. The mean age was 64 (standard deviation 16) years. After five years, 52% (95% confidence interval: 47-57%) survived and 20% (95% confidence interval: 15-26%) of the survivors had modified Rankin scale scores >2. More than half of these patients were institutionalized in nursing or home care settings. The average risk of death per year was approximate to 7%. Survival rates were significantly lower for subarachnoid hemorrhage and primary intracerebral hemorrhage than for ischemic stroke. The five-year recurrence rate was 12% (95% confidence interval: 9-15%). The index stroke was the cause of death in three quarters of the patients. Conclusions The results showed that 68% of the patients with stroke were either dead or disabled five years after first-ever stroke. This percentage is similar to proportions of other recent cohorts from developed countries, despite the lower age of the patients in this study.