Global, Regional, and Country-Specific Lifetime Risks of Stroke, 1990 and 2016

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dc.contributor Sistema FMUSP-HC: Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo (FMUSP) e Hospital das Clínicas da FMUSP
dc.contributor.author FEIGIN, Valery L.
NGUYEN, Grant
CERCY, Kelly
JOHNSON, Catherine O.
ALAM, Tahiya
PARMAR, Priyakumari G.
ABAJOBIR, Amanuel A.
ABATE, Kalkidan H.
ABD-ALLAH, Foad
ABEJIE, Ayenew N.
ABYU, Gebre Y.
ADEMI, Zanfina
AGARWAL, Gina
AHMED, Muktar B.
AKINYEMI, Rufus O.
AL-RADDADI, Rajaa
AMINDE, Leopold N.
AMLIE-LEFOND, Catherine
ANSARI, Hossein
ASAYESH, Hamid
ASGEDOM, Solomon W.
ATEY, Tesfay M.
AYELE, Henok T.
BANACH, Maciej
BANERJEE, Amitava
BARAC, Aleksandra
BARKER-COLLO, Suzanne L.
BARNIGHAUSEN, Till
BARREGARD, Lars
BASU, Sanjay
BEDI, Neeraj
BEHZADIFAR, Masoud
BEJOT, Yannick
BENNETT, Derrick A.
BENSENOR, Isabela M. FMUSP-HC
BERHE, Derbew F.
BONEYA, Dube J.
BRAININ, Michael
CAMPOS-NONATO, Ismael R.
CASO, Valeria
CASTANEDA-ORJUELA, Carlos A.
RIVAS, Jacquelin C.
CATALA-LOPEZ, Ferran
CHRISTENSEN, Hanne
CRIQUI, Michael H.
DAMASCENO, Albertino
DANDONA, Lalit
DANDONA, Rakhi
DAVLETOV, Kairat
COURTEN, Barbora de
DEVEBER, Gabrielle
DOKOVA, Klara
EDESSA, Dumessa
ENDRES, Matthias
FARAON, Emerito J. A.
FARVID, Maryam S.
FISCHER, Florian
FOREMAN, Kyle
FOROUZANFAR, Mohammad H.
GALL, Seana L.
GEBREHIWOT, Tsegaye T.
GELEIJNSE, Johanna M.
GILLUM, Richard F.
GIROUD, Maurice
GOULART, Alessandra C. FMUSP-HC
GUPTA, Rahul
GUPTA, Rajeev
HACHINSKI, Vladimir
HAMADEH, Randah R.
HANKEY, Graeme J.
HARERI, Habtamu A.
HAVMOELLER, Rasmus
HAY, Simon I.
HEGAZY, Mohamed I.
HIBSTU, Desalegn T.
JAMES, Spencer L.
JEEMON, Panniyammakal
JOHN, Denny
JONAS, Jost B.
JOZWIAK, Jacek
KALANI, Rizwan
KANDEL, Amit
KASAEIAN, Amir
KENGNE, Andre P.
KHADER, Yousef S.
KHAN, Abdur R.
KHANG, Young-Ho
KHUBCHANDANI, Jagdish
KIM, Daniel
KIM, Yun J.
KIVIMAKI, Mika
KOKUBO, Yoshihiro
KOLTE, Dhaval
KOPEC, Jacek A.
KOSEN, Soewarta
KRAVCHENKO, Michael
KRISHNAMURTHI, Rita
KUMAR, G. Anil
LAFRANCONI, Alessandra
LAVADOS, Pablo M.
LEGESSE, Yirga
LI, Yongmei
LIANG, Xiaofeng
LO, Warren D.
LORKOWSKI, Stefan
LOTUFO, Paulo A. FMUSP-HC
LOY, Clement T.
MACKAY, Mark T.
RAZEK, Hassan Magdy Abd El
MAHDAVI, Mahdi
MAJEED, Azeem
MALEKZADEH, Reza
MALTA, Deborah C.
MAMUN, Abdullah A.
MANTOVANI, Lorenzo G.
MARTINS, Sheila C. O.
MATE, Kedar K.
MAZIDI, Mohsen
MEHATA, Suresh
MEIER, Toni
MELAKU, Yohannes A.
MENDOZA, Walter
MENSAH, George A.
MERETOJA, Atte
MEZGEBE, Haftay B.
MIAZGOWSKI, Tomasz
MILLER, Ted R.
IBRAHIM, Norlinah M.
MOHAMMED, Shafiu
MOKDAD, Ali H.
MOOSAZADEH, Mahmood
MORAN, Andrew E.
MUSA, Kamarul I.
NEGOI, Ruxandra I.
Minh Nguyen
NGUYEN, Quyen L.
NGUYEN, Trang H.
TRAN, Tung T.
NGUYEN, Thanh T.
NINGRUM, Dina Nur Anggraini
NORRVING, Bo
NOUBIAP, Jean J.
O'DONNELL, Martin J.
OLAGUNJU, Andrew T.
ONUMA, Oyere K.
OWOLABI, Mayowa O.
PARSAEIAN, Mahboubeh
PATTON, George C.
PIRADOV, Michael
PLETCHER, Martin A.
POURMALEK, Farshad
PRAKASH, V.
QORBANI, Mostafa
RAHMAN, Mahfuzar
RAHMAN, Muhammad A.
RAI, Rajesh K.
RANTA, Annemarei
RAWAF, David
RAWAF, Salman
RENZAHO, Andre M. N.
ROBINSON, Stephen R.
SAHATHEVAN, Ramesh
SAHEBKAR, Amirhossein
SALOMON, Joshua A.
SANTALUCIA, Paola
SANTOS, Itamar S. FMUSP-HC
SARTORIUS, Benn
SCHUTTE, Aletta E.
SEPANLOU, Sadaf G.
SHAFIEESABET, Azadeh
SHAIKH, Masood A.
SHAMSIZADEH, Morteza
SHETH, Kevin N.
SISAY, Mekonnen
SHIN, Min-Jeong
SHIUE, Ivy
SILVA, Diego A. S.
SOBNGWI, Eugene
SOLJAK, Michael
SORENSEN, Reed J. D.
SPOSATO, Luciano A.
STRANGES, Saverio
SULIANKATCHI, Rizwan A.
TABARES-SEISDEDOS, Rafael
TANNE, David
Cuong Tat Nguyen
THAKUR, J. S.
THRIFT, Amanda G.
TIRSCHWELL, David L.
TOPOR-MADRY, Roman
TRAN, Bach X.
NGUYEN, Luong T.
TRUELSEN, Thomas
TSILIMPARIS, Nikolaos
TYROVOLAS, Stefanos
UKWAJA, Kingsley N.
UTHMAN, Olalekan A.
VARAKIN, Yuri
VASANKARI, Tommi
VENKETASUBRAMANIAN, Narayanaswamy
VLASSOV, Vasiliy V.
WANG, Wenzhi
WERDECKER, Andrea
WOLFE, Charles D. A.
XU, Gelin
YANO, Yuichiro
YONEMOTO, Naohiro
YU, Chuanhua
ZAIDI, Zoubida
ZAKI, Maysaa El Sayed
ZHOU, Maigeng
ZIAEIAN, Boback
ZIPKIN, Ben
VOS, Theo
NAGHAVI, Mohsen
MURRAY, Christopher J. L.
ROTH, Gregory A.
dc.date.issued 2018
dc.identifier.citation NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE, v.379, n.25, p.2429-2437, 2018
dc.identifier.issn 0028-4793
dc.identifier.uri http://observatorio.fm.usp.br/handle/OPI/30788
dc.description.abstract BACKGROUND The lifetime risk of stroke has been calculated in a limited number of selected populations. We sought to estimate the lifetime risk of stroke at the regional, country, and global level using data from a comprehensive study of the prevalence of major diseases. METHODS We used the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2016 estimates of stroke incidence and the competing risks of death from any cause other than stroke to calculate the cumulative lifetime risks of first stroke, ischemic stroke, or hemorrhagic stroke among adults 25 years of age or older. Estimates of the lifetime risks in the years 1990 and 2016 were compared. Countries were categorized into quintiles of the sociodemographic index (SDI) used in the GBD Study, and the risks were compared across quintiles. Comparisons were made with the use of point estimates and uncertainty intervals representing the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles around the estimate. RESULTS The estimated global lifetime risk of stroke from the age of 25 years onward was 24.9% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.5 to 26.2); the risk among men was 24.7% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.3 to 26.0), and the risk among women was 25.1% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.7 to 26.5). The risk of ischemic stroke was 18.3%, and the risk of hemorrhagic stroke was 8.2%. In high-SDI, high-middle-SDI, and low-SDI countries, the estimated lifetime risk of stroke was 23.5%, 31.1% (highest risk), and 13.2% (lowest risk), respectively; the 95% uncertainty intervals did not overlap between these categories. The highest estimated lifetime risks of stroke according to GBD region were in East Asia (38.8%), Central Europe (31.7%), and Eastern Europe (31.6%), and the lowest risk was in eastern sub-Saharan Africa (11.8%). The mean global lifetime risk of stroke increased from 22.8% in 1990 to 24.9% in 2016, a relative increase of 8.9% (95% uncertainty interval, 6.2 to 11.5); the competing risk of death from any cause other than stroke was considered in this calculation. CONCLUSIONS In 2016, the global lifetime risk of stroke from the age of 25 years onward was approximately 25% among both men and women. There was geographic variation in the lifetime risk of stroke, with the highest risks in East Asia, Central Europe, and Eastern Europe.
dc.description.sponsorship · Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
dc.language.iso eng
dc.publisher MASSACHUSETTS MEDICAL SOC
dc.relation.ispartof New England Journal of Medicine
dc.rights restrictedAccess
dc.subject.other hypertension; population; burden
dc.title Global, Regional, and Country-Specific Lifetime Risks of Stroke, 1990 and 2016
dc.type article
dc.rights.holder Copyright MASSACHUSETTS MEDICAL SOC
dc.contributor.groupauthor GBD 2016 Lifetime Risk Stroke
dc.description.group LIM/20
dc.description.group LIM/51
dc.identifier.doi 10.1056/NEJMoa1804492
dc.identifier.pmid 30575491
dc.type.category original article
dc.type.version publishedVersion
hcfmusp.author BENSENOR, Isabela M.:FM:MCM
hcfmusp.author GOULART, Alessandra C.:HU:SCPACEX-62
hcfmusp.author LOTUFO, Paulo A.:FM:MCM
hcfmusp.author SANTOS, Itamar S.:FM:MCM
hcfmusp.author.external · ROTH, Gregory A.:Univ Washington, Dept Med, Div Cardiol, Inst Hlth Metr & Evaluat, 2301 5th Ave,Suite 600, Seattle, WA 98121 USA
hcfmusp.origem.id WOS:000453849400007
hcfmusp.origem.id 2-s2.0-85058877243
hcfmusp.publisher.city WALTHAM
hcfmusp.publisher.country USA
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dc.description.index MEDLINE
dc.identifier.eissn 1533-4406
hcfmusp.citation.scopus 125
hcfmusp.citation.wos 102
hcfmusp.affiliation.country Brasil
hcfmusp.affiliation.country Estados Unidos
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