Sistema FMUSP-HC: Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo (FMUSP) e Hospital das Clínicas da FMUSPMASSAD, EduardoLAPORTA, Gabriel ZorelloCONN, Jan EvelynCHAVES, Leonardo SuvegesBERGO, Eduardo SterlinoFIGUEIRA, Elder Augusto GuimaraesCOUTINHO, Francisco Antonio BezerraLOPEZ, Luis FernandezSTRUCHINER, ClaudioSALLUM, Maria Anice Mureb2020-12-162020-12-162020TRAVEL MEDICINE AND INFECTIOUS DISEASE, v.37, article ID 101792, 11p, 20201477-8939https://observatorio.fm.usp.br/handle/OPI/38457Background: Human mobility between malaria endemic and malaria-free areas can hinder control and elimination efforts in the Amazon basin, maintaining Plasmodium circulation and introduction to new areas. Methods: The analysis begins by estimating the incidence of malaria in areas of interest. Then, the risk of infection as a function of the duration of stay after t(0) was calculated as the number of infected travelers over the number of arrived travelers. Differential equations were employed to estimate the risk of nonimmune travelers acquiring malaria in Amazonian municipalities. Risk was calculated as a result of the force of the infection in terms of local dynamics per time of arrival and duration of visit. Results: Maximum risk occurred at the peak or at the end of the rainy season and it was nonlinearly (exponentially) correlated with the fraction of infected mosquitoes. Relationship between the risk of malaria and duration of visit was linear and positively correlated. Relationship between the risk of malaria and the time of arrival in the municipality was dependent on local effects of seasonality. Conclusions: The risk of nonimmune travelers acquiring malaria is not negligible and can maintain regional circulation of parasites, propagating introductions in areas where malaria has been eliminated.engrestrictedAccessMalaria riskMathematical modelingRural settlementsAmazonBrazilplasmodium-falciparumartemisinin resistanceimported malariaoriginsspreadvivaxarticleCopyright ELSEVIER SCI LTD10.1016/j.tmaid.2020.101792Public, Environmental & Occupational HealthInfectious Diseases1873-0442