Percentiles of predicted 10-year cardiovascular disease risk by sex and age in Brazil and their association with estimated risk of long-term atherosclerotic events

Sistema FMUSP-HC: Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo (FMUSP) e Hospital das Clínicas da FMUSPCESENA, Fernando YueGENEROSO, GiulianoSANTOS, Itamar de S.DUNCAN, Bruce B.RIBEIRO, Antonio Luiz P.BRANT, Luisa CaldeiraMILL, Jose GeraldoPEREIRA, Alexandre C.BITTENCOURT, Marcio SommerSANTOS, Raul D.LOTUFO, Paulo A.BENSENOR, Isabela M.2024-02-152024-02-152023PREVENTIVE MEDICINE, v.177, article ID 107755, 9p, 20230091-7435https://observatorio.fm.usp.br/handle/OPI/57818Objective: Expressing the cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in relation to peers may complement the estimation of absolute CVD risk. We aimed to determine 10-year CVD risk percentiles by sex and age in the Brazilian population and evaluate their association with estimated long-term atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) risk.Methods: A cross-sectional analysis of baseline data from the ELSA-Brasil study was conducted in individuals aged 40-74 years without prior ASCVD. Ten-year CVD risk and long-term ASCVD risk were estimated by the WHO risk score and the Multinational Cardiovascular Risk Consortium tool, respectively. Ten-year risk percentiles were determined by ranking the calculated risks within each sex and age group.Results: Ten-year CVD risk versus percentile plots were constructed for each sex and age group using data from 13,364 participants (55% females; median age, 52 [IQR, 46-59] years). Long-term ASCVD risk was calculated in 12,973 (97.1%) participants. Compared to individuals at the <25th risk percentile, those at the >= 75th percentile had a greater risk of being in the highest quartile of long-term risk (ORs [95% CIs] 6.57 [5.18-8.30] in females and 11.59 [8.42-15.96] in males) in regression models adjusted for age, race, education, and 10-year CVD risk. In both sexes, the association between risk percentile and long-term risk weakened after age 50. A tool for calculating 10-year CVD risk and the corresponding percentile is available at https://bit.ly/3CzPUi6.Conclusions: We established percentiles of predicted 10-year CVD risk by sex and age in the Brazilian population, which independently reflect the estimated long-term ASCVD risk in younger individuals.engrestrictedAccessHeart disease risk factorsRisk assessmentCardiovascular diseasesASCVDAwarenessWorld Health Organizationcoronary-artery calciumhealthracecholesterolpreventionprevalencestatementupdategenderPercentiles of predicted 10-year cardiovascular disease risk by sex and age in Brazil and their association with estimated risk of long-term atherosclerotic eventsarticleCopyright ACADEMIC PRESS INC ELSEVIER SCIENCE10.1016/j.ypmed.2023.107755Public, Environmental & Occupational HealthMedicine, General & Internal1096-0260