Local protection bubbles: an interpretation of the slowdown in the spread of coronavirus in the city of São Paulo, Brazil, in July 2020

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Tipo de produção
article
Data de publicação
2023
DOI
Scopus
Web of Science
PubMed
Título da Revista
ISSN da Revista
Título do Volume
Editora
CADERNOS SAUDE PUBLICA
Autores
PINTO, Jose Paulo Guedes
MAGALHAES, Patricia Camargo
ALVES, Domingos
ANGEL, Diana Maritza Segura
Citação
CADERNOS DE SAUDE PUBLICA, v.39, n.11, article ID e00109522, 14p, 2023
Projetos de Pesquisa
Unidades Organizacionais
Fascículo
Resumo
After four months of fighting the pandemic, the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil, en-tered a phase of relaxed social distancing measures in July 2020. Simulta-neously, there was a decline in the social distancing rate and a reduction in the number of cases, fatalities, and hospital bed occupancy. To understand the pandemic dynamics in the city of Sao Paulo, we developed a multi-agent simulation model. Surprisingly, the counter-intuitive results of the model fol-lowed the city's reality. We argue that this phenomenon could be attributed to local bubbles of protection that emerged in the absence of contagion net-works. These bubbles reduced the transmission rate of the virus, causing short and temporary reductions in the epidemic curve - but manifested as an un-stable equilibrium. Our hypothesis aligns with the virus spread dynamics ob-served thus far, without the need for ad hoc assumptions regarding the natu-ral thresholds of collective immunity or the heterogeneity of the population's transmission rate, which may lead to erroneous predictions. Our model was designed to be user-friendly and does not require any scientific or program-ming expertise to generate outcomes on virus transmission in a given loca-tion. Furthermore, as an input to start our simulation model, we developed the COVID-19 Protection Index as an alternative to the Human Development Index, which measures a given territory vulnerability to the coronavirus and includes characteristics of the health system and socioeconomic development, as well as the infrastructure of the city of Sao Paulo.
Palavras-chave
Social Distancing, COVID-19, Virus Shedding
URI
https://observatorio.fm.usp.br/handle/OPI/57994
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Coleções
Artigos e Materiais de Revistas Científicas - FM/MPR
Artigos e Materiais de Revistas Científicas - COVID-19
Artigos e Materiais de Revistas Científicas - LIM/38
Artigos e Materiais de Revistas Científicas - ODS/03