EDUARDO MASSAD
Projetos de Pesquisa
Unidades Organizacionais
Departamento de MedicinaLegal, Ética Médica e Medicina Social e do Trabalho, Faculdade de Medicina - Docente
LIM/01 - Laboratório de Informática Médica, Hospital das Clínicas, Faculdade de Medicina - Líder
LIM/01 - Laboratório de Informática Médica, Hospital das Clínicas, Faculdade de Medicina - Líder
106 resultados
Resultados de Busca
Agora exibindo 1 - 10 de 106
- Cost-effectiveness analysis of diagnostics tests of respiratory tract infection in cancer patients(2016) FURLAN, Teresa; MASSAD, Eduardo
- Potential exposure to Zika virus for foreign tourists during the 2016 Carnival and Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil(2016) BURATTINI, M. N.; COUTINHO, F. A. B.; LOPEZ, L. F.; XIMENES, R.; QUAM, M.; WILDER-SMITH, A.; MASSAD, E.
- The risk of dengue for non-immune foreign visitors to the 2016 summer olympic games in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil(2016) XIMENES, Raphael; AMAKU, Marcos; LOPEZ, Luis Fernandez; COUTINHO, Francisco Antonio Bezerra; BURATTINI, Marcelo Nascimento; GREENHALGH, David; WILDER-SMITH, Annelies; STRUCHINER, Claudio Jose; MASSAD, EduardoBackground: Rio de Janeiro in Brazil will host the Summer Olympic Games in 2016. About 400,000 non-immune foreign tourists are expected to attend the games. As Brazil is the country with the highest number of dengue cases worldwide, concern about the risk of dengue for travelers is justified. Methods: A mathematical model to calculate the risk of developing dengue for foreign tourists attending the Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro in 2016 is proposed. A system of differential equation models the spread of dengue amongst the resident population and a stochastic approximation is used to assess the risk to tourists. Historical reported dengue time series in Rio de Janeiro for the years 2000-2015 is used to find out the time dependent force of infection, which is then used to estimate the potential risks to a large tourist cohort. The worst outbreak of dengue occurred in 2012 and this and the other years in the history of Dengue in Rio are used to discuss potential risks to tourists amongst visitors to the forthcoming Rio Olympics. Results: The individual risk to be infected by dengue is very much dependent on the ratio asymptomatic/symptomatic considered but independently of this the worst month of August in the period studied in terms of dengue transmission, occurred in 2007. Conclusions: If dengue returns in 2016 with the pattern observed in the worst month of August in history (2007), the expected number of symptomatic and asymptomatic dengue cases among tourists will be 23 and 206 cases, respectively. This worst case scenario would have an incidence of 5.75 (symptomatic) and 51.5 (asymptomatic) per 100,000 individuals.
- Modeling criminal careers of different levels of offence(2023) RAIMUNDO, Silvia Martorano; YANG, Hyun Mo; RUBIO, Felipe Alves; GREENHALGH, David; MASSAD, EduardoWe set up and analyse a mathematical model, the Serious Crime Model, which describes the interaction of mild and serious offenders and potential criminals. However we get more complete results for a simpler version of this model, the Mild Crime Model, with no serious offenders. For the full Serious Crime Model there are two key parameters R 10 and R 20 corresponding to the basic reproduction number in the mathematics of infectious diseases, which determine the behaviour of the system. For the Simpler Mild Crime Model there is just one such parameter R 10 . Both forward and backward bifurcation can occur for this second model with two subcritical non-trivial equilibria possible for R 10 < 1 in the backwards case. For backwards bifurcation there is another threshold value R*0 such that the upper non-trivial equilibrium is unstable for R 10 < R*0 and stable for R 10 > R*0. For for-wards bifurcation there is a second additional threshold value R 0** such that the stability of the unique non-trivial equilibrium switches from unstable to stable as R 10 passes through R ** 0 . At the end we return to the full Serious Crime Model and discuss the behaviour of this model. The results are meaningful and interesting because in all of the other epidemiolog-ical and sociological models of which we are aware, analogous thresholds to R*0 and R ** 0 do not exist. For forwards bifurcation the unique non-trivial equilibrium, and for backwards bifurcation with two subcritical endemic equilibria the higher non-trivial equilibrium, are also usually always locally asymptotically stable. So our models exhibit unusual and inter-esting behaviour.(c) 2023 The Authors.
conferenceObject Madeira's dengue outbreak in 2012: could it happen again in the near future?(2015) QUAM, M. B.; HELMERSSON, J. L.; MASSAD, E.; WILDER-SMITH, A.; ROCKL, J.- The cost of dengue control(2011) MASSAD, Eduardo; COUTINHO, Francisco Antonio Bezerra
- The optimal age of vaccination against dengue in Brazil based on serotype-specific forces of infection derived from serological data(2021) MAIER, Sandra B.; MASSAD, Eduardo; AMAKU, Marcos; BURATTINI, Marcelo N.; GREENHALGH, DavidIn this paper, we study a single serotype transmission model of dengue to determine the optimal vaccination age for Dengvaxia. The transmission dynamics are modelled with an age-dependent force of infection. The force of infection for each serotype is derived from the serological profile of dengue in Brazil without serotype distinction and from serotype-specific reported cases. The risk due to an infection is measured by the probability of requiring hospitalization based on Brazilian Ministry of Health data. The optimal vaccination age is determined for any number and combination of the four distinct dengue virus serotypes DENv1-4. The lifetime expected risk is adapted to include antibody dependent enhancement (ADE) and permanent cross-immunity after two heterologous infections. The risk is assumed to be serostatus-dependent. The optimal vaccination age is computed for constant, serostatus-specific vaccine efficacies. Additionally, the vaccination age is restricted to conform to the licence of Dengvaxia in Brazil and the achievable and minimal lifetime expected risks are compared. The optimal vaccination age obtained for the risk of hospitalization varies significantly with the assumptions relating to ADE and cross-immunity. Risk-free primary infections lead to higher optimal vaccination ages, as do asymptomatic third and fourth infections. Sometimes vaccination is not recommended at all, e.g. for any endemic area with a single serotype if primary infections are risk-free. Restricting the vaccination age to Dengvaxia licensed ages mostly leads to only a slightly higher lifetime expected risk and the vaccine should be administered as close as possible to the optimal vaccination age.
- Attention performance among Brazilian truck drivers and its association with amphetamine use: pilot study(2013) OLIVEIRA, Lucio Garcia de; SANTOS, Bernardo dos; GONCALVES, Priscila Dib; CARVALHO, Heraclito de Barbosa; MASSAD, Eduardo; LEYTON, VilmaThe aim of this article was to describe the attention functioning of twenty-two truck drivers and its relationship with amphetamine use. Those drivers who reported using amphetamines in the twelve months previous to the interview had the best performance in a test evaluating sustained attention functioning. Although amphetamine use may initially seem advantageous to the drivers, it may actually impair safe driving. The findings suggest the importance of monitoring the laws regarding amphetamine use in this country.
- Differences in Placental Histology Between Zika Virus-infected Teenagers and Older Women(2022) SANTOS, Geovane R.; PINTO, Clovis A. L.; PRUDENTE, Raphael C. S.; WITKIN, Steven S.; ARANDES, Antoni S.; RODRIGUES, Laura C.; ZATZ, Mayana; MASSAD, Eduardo; PASSOS, Saulo D.In pregnant women, Zika virus (ZIKV) is associated with a congenital syndrome, most frequently involving damage to embryo brain formation and the development of microcephaly. The mechanism(s) by which ZIKV enters the maternal-fetal interface and is transmitted to the fetus remains incompletely determined. We sought to evaluate histologic changes in the placenta of ZIKV-infected pregnant women and to determine if this varied by maternal age. Placental samples were obtained from 66 women, 33 of whom were positive for ZIKV. Histologic evaluations were performed on 4 areas of the placenta: fetal surface, maternal surface, umbilical cord, and membranes. Samples were analyzed by the tissue microarray technique and tested for CD4, CD8, CD20, CD68, FOXP3, and cyclooxygenase-2 expression. Data were evaluated using Fisher exact test. ZIKV infection was more frequent in women less than 18 yr of age (9/11, 81.8%) than in women above 18 yr old (24/55, 43.6%) (P=0.0440). ZIKV detection was associated with neutrophilic chorioamnionitis (P=0.0332) and with septal (P=0.0244) and villous (P=0.0534) calcification. Hofbauer cell hyperplasia (P=0.0260) and cyclooxygenase-2 expression (P=0.0346) were more prevalent in ZIKV-positive women aged 18 yr and below than in the older ZIKV-positive women. ZIKV infection during pregnancy occurs more frequently in adolescents and induces higher rates of damage at the maternal-fetal interface than in older women.
- The Optimal Age of Vaccination Against Dengue with an Age-Dependent Biting Rate with Application to Brazil(2020) MAIER, Sandra B.; MASSAD, Eduardo; AMAKU, Marcos; BURATTINI, Marcelo N.; GREENHALGH, DavidIn this paper we introduce a single serotype transmission model, including an age-dependent mosquito biting rate, to find the optimal vaccination age against dengue in Brazil with Dengvaxia. The optimal vaccination age and minimal lifetime expected risk of hospitalisation are found by adapting a method due to Hethcote (Math Biosci 89:29-52). Any number and combination of the four dengue serotypes DENv1-4 is considered. Successful vaccination against a serotype corresponds to a silent infection. The effects of antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) and permanent cross-immunity after two heterologous infections are studied. ADE is assumed to imply risk-free primary infections, while permanent cross-immunity implies risk-free tertiary and quaternary infections. Data from trials of Dengvaxia indicate vaccine efficacy to be age and serostatus dependent and vaccination of seronegative individuals to induce an increased risk of hospitalisation. Some of the scenarios are therefore reconsidered taking these findings into account. The optimal vaccination age is compared to that achievable under the current age restriction of the vaccine. If vaccination is not considered to induce risk, optimal vaccination ages are very low. The assumption of ADE generally leads to a higher optimal vaccination age in this case. For a single serotype vaccination is not recommended in the case of ADE. Permanent cross-immunity results in a slightly lower optimal vaccination age. If vaccination induces a risk, the optimal vaccination ages are much higher, particularly for permanent cross-immunity. ADE has no effect on the optimal vaccination age when permanent cross-immunity is considered; otherwise, it leads to a slight increase in optimal vaccination age.