MICHELINE DE SOUSA ZANOTTI STAGLIORIO COELHO
Projetos de Pesquisa
Unidades Organizacionais
LIM/05 - Laboratório de Poluição Atmosférica Experimental, Hospital das Clínicas, Faculdade de Medicina
7 resultados
Resultados de Busca
Agora exibindo 1 - 7 de 7
- Wildfire-related PM2.5 and health economic loss of mortality in Brazil(2023) WU, Yao; LI, Shanshan; XU, Rongbin; CHEN, Gongbo; YUE, Xu; YU, Pei; YE, Tingting; WEN, Bo; COELHO, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio; SALDIVA, Paulo Hilario Nascimento; GUO, YumingBackground: Wildfire imposes a high mortality burden on Brazil. However, there is a limited assessment of the health economic losses attributable to wildfire-related fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Methods: We collected daily time-series data on all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality from 510 immediate regions in Brazil during 2000-2016. The chemical transport model GEOS-Chem driven with Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED), in combination with ground monitored data and machine learning was used to estimate wildfire-related PM2.5 data at a resolution of 0.25 degrees x 0.25 degrees. A time-series design was applied in each immediate region to assess the association between economic losses due to mortality and wildfire-related PM2.5 and the estimates were pooled at the national level using a random-effect meta-analysis. We used a metaregression model to explore the modification effect of GDP and its sectors (agriculture, industry, and service) on economic losses.Results: During 2000-2016, a total of US$81.08 billion economic losses (US$5.07 billion per year) due to mortality were attributable to wildfire-related PM2.5 in Brazil, accounting for 0.68% of economic losses and equivalent to approximately 0.14% of Brazil's GDP. The attributable fraction (AF) of economic losses due to wildfire-related PM2.5 was positively associated with the proportion of GDP from agriculture, while negatively associated with the proportion of GDP from service.Conclusion: Substantial economic losses due to mortality were associated with wildfires, which could be influenced by the agriculture and services share of GDP per capita. Our estimates of the economic losses of mortality could be used to determine optimal levels of investment and resources to mitigate the adverse health impacts of wildfires.
- A multi-country analysis on potential adaptive mechanisms to cold and heat in a changing climate(2018) VICEDO-CABRERA, Ana M.; SERA, Francesco; GUO, Yuming; CHUNG, Yeonseung; ARBUTHNOTT, Katherine; TONG, Shilu; TOBIAS, Aurelio; LAVIGNE, Eric; COELHO, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio; SALDIVA, Paulo Hilario Nascimento; GOODMAN, Patrick G.; ZEKA, Ariana; HASHIZUME, Masahiro; HONDA, Yasushi; KIM, Ho; RAGETTLI, Martina S.; ROEOESLI, Martin; ZANOBETTI, Antonella; SCHWARTZ, Joel; ARMSTRONG, Ben; GASPARRINI, AntonioBackground: Temporal variation of temperature-health associations depends on the combination of two pathways: pure adaptation to increasingly warmer temperatures due to climate change, and other attenuation mechanisms due to non-climate factors such as infrastructural changes and improved health care. Disentangling these pathways is critical for assessing climate change impacts and for planning public health and climate policies. We present evidence on this topic by assessing temporal trends in cold-and heat-attributable mortality risks in a multi-country investigation. Methods: Trends in country-specific attributable mortality fractions (AFs) for cold and heat (defined as below/above minimum mortality temperature, respectively) in 305 locations within 10 countries (1985-2012) were estimated using a two-stage time-series design with time-varying distributed lag non-linear models. To separate the contribution of pure adaptation to increasing temperatures and active changes in susceptibility (non-climate driven mechanisms) to heat and cold, we compared observed yearly-AFs with those predicted in two counterfactual scenarios: trends driven by either (1) changes in exposure-response function (assuming a constant temperature distribution), (2) or changes in temperature distribution (assuming constant exposure-response relationships). This comparison provides insights about the potential mechanisms and pace of adaptation in each population. Results: Heat-related AFs decreased in all countries (ranging from 0.45-1.66% to 0.15-0.93%, in the first and last 5-year periods, respectively) except in Australia, Ireland and UK. Different patterns were found for cold where AFs ranged from 5.57-15.43% to 2.16-8.91%), showing either decreasing (Brazil, Japan, Spain, Australia and Ireland), increasing (USA), or stable trends (Canada, South Korea and UK). Heat-AF trends were mostly driven by changes in exposure-response associations due to modified susceptibility to temperature, whereas no clear patterns were observed for cold. Conclusions: Our findings suggest a decrease in heat-mortality impacts over the past decades, well beyond those expected from a pure adaptation to changes in temperature due to the observed warming. This indicates that there is scope for the development of public health strategies to mitigate heat-related climate change impacts. In contrast, no clear conclusions were found for cold. Further investigations should focus on identification of factors defining these changes in susceptibility.
- Associations between long-term exposure to PM2.5 and site-specific cancer mortality: A nationwide study in Brazil between 2010 and 2018(2022) YU, Pei; XU, Rongbin; LI, Shanshan; COELHO, Micheline S. Z. S. R.; SALDIVA, Paulo H. N. J.; SIM, Malcolm R.; ABRAMSON, Michael J.; GUO, YumingLong-term exposure to PM2.5 has been linked to lung cancer incidence and mortality, but limited evidence existed for other cancers. This study aimed to assess the association between PM2.5 on cancer specific mortality. An ecological study based on the cancer mortality data collected from 5,565 Brazilian cities during 2010-2018 using a difference-in-differences approach with quasi-Poisson regression, was applied to examine PM2.5-cancer mortality associations. Globally gridded annual average surface PM2.5 concentration was extracted and linked with the residential municipality of participants in this study. Sex, age stratified and exposure-response estimations were also conducted. Totalling 1,768,668 adult cancer deaths records of about 208 million population living across 5,565 municipalities were included in this study. The average PM2.5 concentration was 7.63 mu g/m(3) (standard deviation 3.32) with range from 2.95 mu g/m(3) to 28.5 mu g/m(3). With each 10 mu g/m(3) increase in three-year average (current year and previous two years) concentrations of PM2.5, the relative risks (RR) of cancer mortality were 1.16 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.11-1.20) for all-site cancers. The PM2.5 exposure was significantly associated with several cancer-specific mortalities including oral, nasopharynx, oesophagus, and stomach, colon rectum, liver, gallbladder, larynx, lung, bone, skin, female breast, cervix, prostate, brain and leukaemia. No safe level of PM2.5 exposure was observed in the exposure-response curve for all types of cancer. In conclusion, with nationwide cancer death records in Brazil, we found that long-term exposure to ambient PM2.5 increased risks of mortality for many cancer types. Even low level PM2.5 concentrations had significant impacts on cancer mortality.
- Temperature-related mortality impacts under and beyond Paris Agreement climate change scenarios(2018) VICEDO-CABRERA, Ana Maria; GUO, Yuming; SERA, Francesco; HUBER, Veronika; SCHLEUSSNER, Carl-Friedrich; MITCHELL, Dann; TONG, Shilu; COELHO, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio; SALDIVA, Paulo Hilario Nascimento; LAVIGNE, Eric; CORREA, Patricia Matus; ORTEGA, Nicolas Valdes; KAN, Haidong; OSORIO, Samuel; KYSELY, Jan; ALES, Urban; JAAKKOLA, Jouni J. K.; RYTI, Niilo R. I.; PASCAL, Mathilde; GOODMAN, Patrick G.; ZEKA, Ariana; MICHELOZZI, Paola; SCORTICHINI, Matteo; HASHIZUME, Masahiro; HONDA, Yasushi; HURTADO-DIAZ, Magali; CRUZ, Julio; SEPOSO, Xerxes; KIM, Ho; TOBIAS, Aurelio; INIGUEZ, Carmen; FORSBERG, Bertil; ASTROM, Daniel Oudin; RAGETTLI, Martina S.; ROOSLI, Martin; GUO, Yue Leon; WU, Chang-fu; ZANOBETTI, Antonella; SCHWARTZ, Joel; BELL, Michelle L.; Tran Ngoc Dang; Dung Do Van; HEAVISIDE, Clare; VARDOULAKIS, Sotiris; HAJAT, Shakoor; HAINES, Andy; ARMSTRONG, Ben; EBI, Kristie L.; GASPARRINI, AntonioThe Paris Agreement binds all nations to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change, with the commitment to hold warming well below 2 degrees C in global mean temperature (GMT), relative to pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5 degrees C. The 1.5 degrees C limit constitutes an ambitious goal for which greater evidence on its benefits for health would help guide policy and potentially increase the motivation for action. Here we contribute to this gap with an assessment on the potential health benefits, in terms of reductions in temperature-related mortality, derived from the compliance to the agreed temperature targets, compared to more extreme warming scenarios. We performed a multi-region analysis in 451 locations in 23 countries with different climate zones, and evaluated changes in heat and cold-related mortality under scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement targets (1.5 and 2 degrees C) and more extreme GMT increases (3 and 4 degrees C), and under the assumption of no changes in demographic distribution and vulnerability. Our results suggest that limiting warming below 2 degrees C could prevent large increases in temperature-related mortality in most regions worldwide. The comparison between 1.5 and 2 degrees C is more complex and characterized by higher uncertainty, with geographical differences that indicate potential benefits limited to areas located in warmer climates, where direct climate change impacts will be more discernible.
- Productivity-adjusted life years lost due to non-optimum temperatures in Brazil: A nationwide time-series study(2023) WEN, Bo; ADEMI, Zanfina; WU, Yao; XU, Rongbin; YU, Pei; YE, Tingting; COELHO, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio; SALDIVA, Paulo Hilario Nascimento; GUO, Yuming; LI, ShanshanNon-optimal temperatures are associated with premature deaths globally. However, the evidence is limited in low-and middle-income countries, and the productivity losses due to non-optimal temperatures have not been quantified. We aimed to estimate the work-related impacts and economic losses attributable to non-optimal temperatures in Brazil. We col-lected daily mortality data from 510 immediate regions in Brazil during 2000 and 2019. A two-stage time-series analysis was applied to evaluate the association between non-optimum temperatures and the Productivity-Adjusted Life-Years (PALYs) lost. The temperature-PALYs association was fitted for each location in the first stage and then we applied meta -analyses to obtain the national estimations. The attributable fraction (AF) of PALY lost due to ambient temperatures and the corresponding economic costs were calculated for different subgroups of the working-age population. A total of 3,629,661 of PALYs lost were attributed to non-optimal temperatures during 2000-2019 in Brazil, corresponding to 2.90 % (95 % CI: 1.82 %, 3.95 %) of the total PALYs lost. Non-optimal temperatures have led to US$104.86 billion (95 % CI: 65.95, 142.70) of economic costs related to PALYs lost and the economic burden was more substantial in males and the population aged 15-44 years. Higher risks of extreme cold temperatures were observed in the South region in Brazil while extreme hot temperatures were observed in the Central West and Northeast regions. In conclusion, non -optimal temperatures are associated with considerable labour losses as well as economic costs in Brazil. Tailored policies and adaptation strategies should be proposed to mitigate the impacts of non-optimal temperatures on the labour supply in a changing climate.
- Loss of life expectancy from PM2.5 in Brazil: A national study from 2010 to 2018(2022) YU, Pei; XU, Rongbin; LI, Shanshan; COELHO, Micheline S. Z. S.; SALDIVA, Paulo H. N.; SIM, Malcolm R.; ABRAMSON, Michael J.; GUO, YumingBackground: Long-term exposure to PM2.5 is proved to be linked with mortality. However, limited studies have estimated the PM2.5 related loss of life expectancy (LLE) and its changing trends. How much life expectancy would be improved if PM2.5 pollution is reduced to the new WHO air quality guideline (AQG) level is unclear. Methods: Data on deaths from all-causes, cancer, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases were collected from 5,565 Brazilian municipalities during 2010-2018. A difference-in-differences approach with quasi-Poisson regression was applied to examine the PM2.5-years of life lost (YLL) associations and PM2.5 associated LLE. Results: The annual PM2.5 concentration in each municipality from 2010 to 2018 was 7.7 mu g/m3 in Brazil. Nationally, with each 10 mu g/m3 increase in five-year-average (current and previous four years) concentrations of PM2.5, the relative risks (RRs) were 1.18 (95% CI: 1.15-1.21) for YLL from all-causes, 1.22 (1.16-1.28) from cancer, 1.12 (1.08-1.17) from cardiovascular and 1.17 (1.10-1.25) from respiratory diseases. Life expectancy could be improved by 1.09 (95% CI: 0.92-1.25) years by limiting PM2.5 concentration to the national lowest level (2.9 mu g/m3), specifically, 0.20 (0.15-0.24) years for cancer, 0.16 (0.11-0.22) years for cardiovascular and 0.09 (0.05-0.13) years for respiratory diseases, with significant disparities across regions and municipalities. Life expectancy would be improved by 0.78 (0.66-0.90) years by setting the new WHO AQG PM2.5 concentration level of 5 mu g/m3 as an acceptable threshold. Conclusions: Using nationwide death records in Brazil, we found that long-term exposure to PM2.5 was associated with reduced life expectancy from all-causes, cancer, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases with regional inequalities and different trends. PM2.5 pollution abatement to below the WHO AQG level would improve this loss of life expectancy in Brazil.
- Joint effect of heat and air pollution on mortality in 620 cities of 36 countries(2023) STAFOGGIA, Massimo; MICHELOZZI, Paola; SCHNEIDER, Alexandra; ARMSTRONG, Ben; SCORTICHINI, Matteo; RAI, Masna; ACHILLEOS, Souzana; ALAHMAD, Barrak; ANALITIS, Antonis; ASTROM, Christofer; BELL, Michelle L.; CALLEJA, Neville; CARLSEN, Hanne Krage; CARRASCO, Gabriel; CAUCHI, John Paul; COELHO, Micheline D. S. Z. S.; CORREA, Patricia M.; DIAZ, Magali H.; ENTEZARI, Alireza; FORSBERG, Bertil; GARLAND, Rebecca M.; GUO, Yue Leon; GUO, Yuming; HASHIZUME, Masahiro; HOLOBACA, Iulian H.; INIGUEZ, Carmen; JAAKKOLA, Jouni J. K.; KAN, Haidong; KATSOUYANNI, Klea; KIM, Ho; KYSELY, Jan; LAVIGNE, Eric; LEE, Whanhee; LI, Shanshan; MAASIKMETS, Marek; MADUREIRA, Joana; MAYVANEH, Fatemeh; NG, Chris Fook Sheng; NUNES, Baltazar; ORRU, Hans; V, Nicolas Ortega; OSORIO, Samuel; PALOMARES, Alfonso D. L.; PAN, Shih-Chun; PASCAL, Mathilde; RAGETTLI, Martina S.; RAO, Shilpa; RAZ, Raanan; ROYE, Dominic; RYTI, Niilo; SALDIVA, Paulo H. N.; SAMOLI, Evangelia; SCHWARTZ, Joel; SCOVRONICK, Noah; SERA, Francesco; TOBIAS, Aurelio; TONG, Shilu; VALENCIA, Cesar D. L. C.; VICEDO-CABRERA, Ana Maria; URBAN, Ales; GASPARRINI, Antonio; BREITNER, Susanne; DONATO, Francesca K. deBackground: The epidemiological evidence on the interaction between heat and ambient air pollution on mor-tality is still inconsistent. Objectives: To investigate the interaction between heat and ambient air pollution on daily mortality in a large dataset of 620 cities from 36 countries. Methods: We used daily data on all-cause mortality, air temperature, particulate matter <= 10 mu m (PM10), PM <= 2.5 mu m (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and ozone (O3) from 620 cities in 36 countries in the period 1995-2020. We restricted the analysis to the six consecutive warmest months in each city. City-specific data were analysed with over-dispersed Poisson regression models, followed by a multilevel random-effects meta-analysis. The joint association between air temperature and air pollutants was modelled with product terms between non-linear functions for air temperature and linear functions for air pollutants. Results: We analyzed 22,630,598 deaths. An increase in mean temperature from the 75th to the 99th percentile of city-specific distributions was associated with an average 8.9 % (95 % confidence interval: 7.1 %, 10.7 %) mortality increment, ranging between 5.3 % (3.8 %, 6.9 %) and 12.8 % (8.7 %, 17.0 %), when daily PM10 was equal to 10 or 90 mu g/m3, respectively. Corresponding estimates when daily O3 concentrations were 40 or 160 mu g/ m3 were 2.9 % (1.1 %, 4.7 %) and 12.5 % (6.9 %, 18.5 %), respectively. Similarly, a 10 mu g/m3 increment in PM10 was associated with a 0.54 % (0.10 %, 0.98 %) and 1.21 % (0.69 %, 1.72 %) increase in mortality when daily air temperature was set to the 1st and 99th city-specific percentiles, respectively. Corresponding mortality estimate for O3 across these temperature percentiles were 0.00 % (-0.44 %, 0.44 %) and 0.53 % (0.38 %, 0.68 %). Similar effect modification results, although slightly weaker, were found for PM2.5 and NO2. Conclusions: Suggestive evidence of effect modification between air temperature and air pollutants on mortality during the warm period was found in a global dataset of 620 cities.