Potential for international spread of wild poliovirus via travelers

Página do item simplificado
dc.contributorSistema FMUSP-HC: Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo (FMUSP) e Hospital das Clínicas da FMUSP
dc.contributor.authorWILDER-SMITH, Annelies
dc.contributor.authorLEONG, Wei-Yee
dc.contributor.authorLOPEZ, Luis Fernandez
dc.contributor.authorAMAKU, Marcos
dc.contributor.authorQUAM, Mikkel
dc.contributor.authorKHAN, Kamran
dc.contributor.authorMASSAD, Eduardo
dc.date.accessioned2015-10-26T16:28:11Z
dc.date.available2015-10-26T16:28:11Z
dc.date.issued2015
dc.description.abstractBackground: The endgame of polio eradication is hampered by the international spread of poliovirus via travelers. In response to ongoing importations of poliovirus into polio-free countries, on 5 May 2014, WHO's Director-General declared the international spread of wild poliovirus a public health emergency of international concern. Our objective was to develop a mathematical model to estimate the international spread of polio infections. Methods: Our model took into account polio endemicity in polio-infected countries, population size, polio immunization coverage rates, infectious period, the asymptomatic-to-symptomatic ratio, and also the probability of a traveler being infectious at the time of travel. We applied our model to three scenarios: (1) number of exportations of both symptomatic and asymptomatic polio infections out of currently polio-infected countries, (2) the risk of spread of poliovirus to Saudi Arabia via Hajj pilgrims, and (3) the importation risk of poliovirus into India. Results: Our model estimated 665 polio exportations (>99 % of which were asymptomatic) from nine polio-infected countries in 2014, of which 78.3 % originated from Pakistan. Our model also estimated 21 importations of poliovirus into Saudi Arabia via Hajj pilgrims and 20 poliovirus infections imported to India in the same year. Conclusion: The extent of importations of asymptomatic and symptomatic polio infections is substantial. For countries that are vulnerable to polio outbreaks due to poor national polio immunization coverage rates, our newly developed model may help guide policy-makers to decide whether imposing an entry requirement in terms of proof of vaccination against polio would be justified.
dc.description.indexMEDLINE
dc.identifier.citationBMC MEDICINE, v.13, 2015
dc.identifier.doi10.1186/s12916-015-0363-y
dc.identifier.issn1741-7015
dc.identifier.urihttps://observatorio.fm.usp.br/handle/OPI/11685
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherBIOMED CENTRAL LTD
dc.relation.ispartofBMC Medicine
dc.rightsopenAccess
dc.rights.holderCopyright BIOMED CENTRAL LTD
dc.subjectPoliomyelitis
dc.subjectTravel
dc.subjectImportation
dc.subjectInternational spread
dc.subjectSecondary cases
dc.subjectPolio vaccination
dc.subjectIndia
dc.subjectHajj pilgrimage
dc.subjectPolicy
dc.subjectPolio eradication
dc.subjectMathematical model
dc.subject.otherpoliomyelitis
dc.subject.othersurveillance
dc.subject.othereradication
dc.subject.otherimportation
dc.subject.otherworldwide
dc.subject.otheroutbreak
dc.subject.otherprogress
dc.subject.othersyria
dc.subject.wosMedicine, General & Internal
dc.titlePotential for international spread of wild poliovirus via travelers
dc.typearticle
dc.type.categoryoriginal article
dc.type.versionpublishedVersion
dspace.entity.typePublication
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryAlemanha
hcfmusp.affiliation.countrySingapura
hcfmusp.affiliation.countrySuécia
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryCanadá
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryisode
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryisosg
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryisose
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryisoca
hcfmusp.author.externalWILDER-SMITH, Annelies:Nanyang Technol Univ, Lee Kong Chian Sch Med, Singapore 308232, Singapore; Heidelberg Univ, Inst Publ Hlth, Heidelberg, Germany
hcfmusp.author.externalLEONG, Wei-Yee:Nanyang Technol Univ, Lee Kong Chian Sch Med, Singapore 308232, Singapore
hcfmusp.author.externalAMAKU, Marcos:Univ Sao Paulo, Fac Vet Med, Sao Paulo, Brazil
hcfmusp.author.externalQUAM, Mikkel:Umea Univ, Dept Publ Hlth & Clin Med Epidemiol & Global Hlth, Umea, Sweden
hcfmusp.author.externalKHAN, Kamran:St Michaels Hosp, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Inst, Toronto, ON M5B 1W8, Canada; Univ Toronto, Fac Med, Div Infect Dis, Toronto, ON, Canada
hcfmusp.citation.scopus40
hcfmusp.contributor.author-fmusphcLUIS FERNANDEZ LOPEZ
hcfmusp.contributor.author-fmusphcEDUARDO MASSAD
hcfmusp.description.volume13
hcfmusp.origemWOS
hcfmusp.origem.pubmed26044336
hcfmusp.origem.scopus2-s2.0-84935853548
hcfmusp.origem.wosWOS:000356483300001
hcfmusp.publisher.cityLONDON
hcfmusp.publisher.countryENGLAND
hcfmusp.relation.referenceAhmed QA, 2006, LANCET, V367, P1008, DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(06)68429-8
hcfmusp.relation.reference[Anonymous], 2014, POLIO PUBLIC HLTH EM
hcfmusp.relation.referenceArie S, 2014, BMJ-BRIT MED J, V348, DOI 10.1136/bmj.g2481
hcfmusp.relation.referenceAtkinson W, 2009, EPIDEMIOLOGY PREVENT, V11th
hcfmusp.relation.referenceAylward RB, 2014, LANCET, V383, P489, DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60132-X
hcfmusp.relation.referenceChambers Stephen T, 2011, N Z Med J, V124, P100
hcfmusp.relation.referenceCochi SL, 2014, J INFECT DIS, V210, pS1, DOI 10.1093/infdis/jiu383
hcfmusp.relation.referenceFRIEDRICH MJ, 2014, JAMA J AM MED ASSOC, V311, P666
hcfmusp.relation.referenceGELFAND HM, 1957, AM J HYG, V65, P367
hcfmusp.relation.referenceKamadjeu R, 2014, J INFECT DIS, V210, pS181, DOI 10.1093/infdis/jiu453
hcfmusp.relation.referenceKhan K, 2013, PLOS CURRENTS OUTBRE
hcfmusp.relation.referenceLevitt A, 2014, MMWR-MORBID MORTAL W, V63, P356
hcfmusp.relation.referenceMach A, 2014, MMWR-MORBID MORTAL W, V63, P756
hcfmusp.relation.referenceMach O, 2014, J INFECT DIS S1, P275
hcfmusp.relation.referenceMinistry of Tourism. Government of India, COUNTR WIS DISTR FTA
hcfmusp.relation.referenceMoturi EK, 2014, MMWR-MORBID MORTAL W, V63, P468
hcfmusp.relation.referenceO'Reilly KM, 2011, PLOS MED, V8, DOI 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001109
hcfmusp.relation.referencePlotkin S, 2008, VACCINES, V5th, P634
hcfmusp.relation.referencePolio Global Eradicatio Initiative, DAT MON WILD POL LIS
hcfmusp.relation.referenceQuam M, 2014, LANCET, V383, P1632, DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60537-7
hcfmusp.relation.referenceThe World Bank, DAT LIF EXP BIRTH TO
hcfmusp.relation.referenceThe World Bank, DAT TOT POP
hcfmusp.relation.referenceWen N, 2014, BMC INFECT DIS, V14, DOI 10.1186/1471-2334-14-113
hcfmusp.relation.referenceWilder-Smith A, 2008, EMERG INFECT DIS, V14, P351, DOI 10.3201/eid1402.071245
hcfmusp.relation.referenceWorld Health Organization (WHO), GLOB HLTH OBS DAT RE
hcfmusp.relation.referenceWorld Tourism Organization, 2013, YB TOUR STAT DAT
hcfmusp.relation.referenceYakovenko ML, 2014, EUROSURVEILLANCE, V19, P41, DOI 10.2807/1560-7917.ES2014.19.7.20706
hcfmusp.scopus.lastupdate2024-05-10
relation.isAuthorOfPublication27185c98-10fa-4e47-b432-b0e1e576966c
relation.isAuthorOfPublication2d14cb40-bd10-4412-aeb3-ff717514d3af
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery27185c98-10fa-4e47-b432-b0e1e576966c
Arquivos
Pacote Original
Agora exibindo 1 - 1 de 1
Imagem de Miniatura
Nome:
art_WILDER-SMITH_Potential_for_international_spread_of_wild_poliovirus_via_2015.PDF
Tamanho:
1.15 MB
Formato:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Descrição:
publishedVersion (English)
Baixar
Coleções
Artigos e Materiais de Revistas Científicas - FM/MLS
Artigos e Materiais de Revistas Científicas - LIM/01