The risk of malaria infection for travelers visiting the Brazilian Amazonian region: A mathematical modeling approach

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dc.contributorSistema FMUSP-HC: Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo (FMUSP) e Hospital das Clínicas da FMUSP
dc.contributor.authorMASSAD, Eduardo
dc.contributor.authorLAPORTA, Gabriel Zorello
dc.contributor.authorCONN, Jan Evelyn
dc.contributor.authorCHAVES, Leonardo Suveges
dc.contributor.authorBERGO, Eduardo Sterlino
dc.contributor.authorFIGUEIRA, Elder Augusto Guimaraes
dc.contributor.authorCOUTINHO, Francisco Antonio Bezerra
dc.contributor.authorLOPEZ, Luis Fernandez
dc.contributor.authorSTRUCHINER, Claudio
dc.contributor.authorSALLUM, Maria Anice Mureb
dc.date.accessioned2020-12-16T14:54:52Z
dc.date.available2020-12-16T14:54:52Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.description.abstractBackground: Human mobility between malaria endemic and malaria-free areas can hinder control and elimination efforts in the Amazon basin, maintaining Plasmodium circulation and introduction to new areas. Methods: The analysis begins by estimating the incidence of malaria in areas of interest. Then, the risk of infection as a function of the duration of stay after t(0) was calculated as the number of infected travelers over the number of arrived travelers. Differential equations were employed to estimate the risk of nonimmune travelers acquiring malaria in Amazonian municipalities. Risk was calculated as a result of the force of the infection in terms of local dynamics per time of arrival and duration of visit. Results: Maximum risk occurred at the peak or at the end of the rainy season and it was nonlinearly (exponentially) correlated with the fraction of infected mosquitoes. Relationship between the risk of malaria and duration of visit was linear and positively correlated. Relationship between the risk of malaria and the time of arrival in the municipality was dependent on local effects of seasonality. Conclusions: The risk of nonimmune travelers acquiring malaria is not negligible and can maintain regional circulation of parasites, propagating introductions in areas where malaria has been eliminated.eng
dc.description.indexMEDLINEeng
dc.description.sponsorshipNational Institutes of Health (NIH), U.S. AUnited States Department of Health & Human ServicesNational Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA [R01AI110112-01A1]
dc.description.sponsorshipFundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Sao Paulo, FAPESP, BrazilFundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Sao Paulo (FAPESP) [2014/26229-7, 2014/09774-1]
dc.description.sponsorshipConselho Nacional de Pesquisa, CNPq, BrazilNational Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) [301877/2016-5, 304612/2014-6]
dc.description.sponsorshipZikaPLAN European Union, European Comission Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme [734584]
dc.description.sponsorshipFundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (FAPERJ), BrazilCarlos Chagas Filho Foundation for Research Support of the State of Rio de Janeiro (FAPERJ) [E 26/202.828/2017]
dc.identifier.citationTRAVEL MEDICINE AND INFECTIOUS DISEASE, v.37, article ID 101792, 11p, 2020
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.tmaid.2020.101792
dc.identifier.eissn1873-0442
dc.identifier.issn1477-8939
dc.identifier.urihttps://observatorio.fm.usp.br/handle/OPI/38457
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherELSEVIER SCI LTDeng
dc.relation.ispartofTravel Medicine and Infectious Disease
dc.rightsrestrictedAccesseng
dc.rights.holderCopyright ELSEVIER SCI LTDeng
dc.subjectMalaria riskeng
dc.subjectMathematical modelingeng
dc.subjectRural settlementseng
dc.subjectAmazoneng
dc.subjectBrazileng
dc.subject.otherplasmodium-falciparumeng
dc.subject.otherartemisinin resistanceeng
dc.subject.otherimported malariaeng
dc.subject.otheroriginseng
dc.subject.otherspreadeng
dc.subject.othervivaxeng
dc.subject.wosPublic, Environmental & Occupational Healtheng
dc.subject.wosInfectious Diseaseseng
dc.titleThe risk of malaria infection for travelers visiting the Brazilian Amazonian region: A mathematical modeling approacheng
dc.typearticleeng
dc.type.categoryoriginal articleeng
dc.type.versionpublishedVersioneng
dspace.entity.typePublication
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryEstados Unidos
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryisous
hcfmusp.author.externalMASSAD, Eduardo:Fundacao Getulio Vargas, Escola Matemat Aplicada, Rio De Janeiro, Brazil
hcfmusp.author.externalLAPORTA, Gabriel Zorello:Fundacao ABC, Ctr Univ Saude ABC, Setor Posgrad Pesquisa & Inovacao, Santo Andre, SP, Brazil
hcfmusp.author.externalCONN, Jan Evelyn:New York State Dept Hlth, Wadsworth Ctr, Albany, NY USA
hcfmusp.author.externalCHAVES, Leonardo Suveges:Univ Sao Paulo, Fac Saude Pabl, Dept Epidemiol, Sao Paulo, SP, Brazil
hcfmusp.author.externalBERGO, Eduardo Sterlino:Secretaria Estado Saude Sao Paulo, Superintendencia Controle Endemias, Araraquara, SP, Brazil
hcfmusp.author.externalFIGUEIRA, Elder Augusto Guimaraes:Fundacao Vigilancia Saude Amazonas, Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil
hcfmusp.author.externalSTRUCHINER, Claudio:Fundacao Getulio Vargas, Escola Matemat Aplicada, Rio De Janeiro, Brazil
hcfmusp.author.externalSALLUM, Maria Anice Mureb:Univ Sao Paulo, Fac Saude Pabl, Dept Epidemiol, Sao Paulo, SP, Brazil
hcfmusp.citation.scopus8
hcfmusp.contributor.author-fmusphcFRANCISCO ANTONIO BEZERRA COUTINHO
hcfmusp.contributor.author-fmusphcLUIS FERNANDEZ LOPEZ
hcfmusp.description.articlenumber101792
hcfmusp.description.volume37
hcfmusp.origemWOS
hcfmusp.origem.pubmed32771653
hcfmusp.origem.scopus2-s2.0-85089740276
hcfmusp.origem.wosWOS:000580476900054
hcfmusp.publisher.cityOXFORDeng
hcfmusp.publisher.countryENGLANDeng
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