The Optimal Age of Vaccination Against Dengue with an Age-Dependent Biting Rate with Application to Brazil

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dc.contributorSistema FMUSP-HC: Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo (FMUSP) e Hospital das Clínicas da FMUSP
dc.contributor.authorMAIER, Sandra B.
dc.contributor.authorMASSAD, Eduardo
dc.contributor.authorAMAKU, Marcos
dc.contributor.authorBURATTINI, Marcelo N.
dc.contributor.authorGREENHALGH, David
dc.date.accessioned2020-03-24T14:52:21Z
dc.date.available2020-03-24T14:52:21Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.description.abstractIn this paper we introduce a single serotype transmission model, including an age-dependent mosquito biting rate, to find the optimal vaccination age against dengue in Brazil with Dengvaxia. The optimal vaccination age and minimal lifetime expected risk of hospitalisation are found by adapting a method due to Hethcote (Math Biosci 89:29-52). Any number and combination of the four dengue serotypes DENv1-4 is considered. Successful vaccination against a serotype corresponds to a silent infection. The effects of antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) and permanent cross-immunity after two heterologous infections are studied. ADE is assumed to imply risk-free primary infections, while permanent cross-immunity implies risk-free tertiary and quaternary infections. Data from trials of Dengvaxia indicate vaccine efficacy to be age and serostatus dependent and vaccination of seronegative individuals to induce an increased risk of hospitalisation. Some of the scenarios are therefore reconsidered taking these findings into account. The optimal vaccination age is compared to that achievable under the current age restriction of the vaccine. If vaccination is not considered to induce risk, optimal vaccination ages are very low. The assumption of ADE generally leads to a higher optimal vaccination age in this case. For a single serotype vaccination is not recommended in the case of ADE. Permanent cross-immunity results in a slightly lower optimal vaccination age. If vaccination induces a risk, the optimal vaccination ages are much higher, particularly for permanent cross-immunity. ADE has no effect on the optimal vaccination age when permanent cross-immunity is considered; otherwise, it leads to a slight increase in optimal vaccination age.eng
dc.description.indexMEDLINEeng
dc.description.sponsorshipUniversity of Strathclyde
dc.description.sponsorshipLeverhulme TrustLeverhulme Trust [RF-2015-88]
dc.description.sponsorshipBritish Council Malaysia [DTC 16022]
dc.description.sponsorshipScience Without Borders Program for a Special Visiting Fellowship (CNPq) [30098/2014/7]
dc.identifier.citationBULLETIN OF MATHEMATICAL BIOLOGY, v.82, n.1, article ID UNSP 12, 32p, 2020
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s11538-019-00690-1
dc.identifier.eissn1522-9602
dc.identifier.issn0092-8240
dc.identifier.urihttps://observatorio.fm.usp.br/handle/OPI/35524
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherSPRINGEReng
dc.relation.ispartofBulletin of Mathematical Biology
dc.rightsopenAccesseng
dc.rights.holderCopyright SPRINGEReng
dc.subjectDengueeng
dc.subjectVaccinationeng
dc.subjectOptimal vaccination ageeng
dc.subjectAge-structured modeleng
dc.subjectBiting rateeng
dc.subjectHospitalisationeng
dc.subject.otherhemorrhagic-fevereng
dc.subject.otheryellow-fevereng
dc.subject.otherdynamicseng
dc.subject.otherinfectionseng
dc.subject.otherantibodieseng
dc.subject.otherdiseaseseng
dc.subject.otherinfantseng
dc.subject.otherburdeneng
dc.subject.othermodelseng
dc.subject.otherriskseng
dc.subject.wosBiologyeng
dc.subject.wosMathematical & Computational Biologyeng
dc.titleThe Optimal Age of Vaccination Against Dengue with an Age-Dependent Biting Rate with Application to Brazileng
dc.typearticleeng
dc.type.categoryoriginal articleeng
dc.type.versionpublishedVersioneng
dspace.entity.typePublication
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryEscócia
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryisogb
hcfmusp.author.externalMAIER, Sandra B.:Univ Strathclyde, Dept Math & Stat, Glasgow G1 1XH, Lanark, Scotland
hcfmusp.author.externalGREENHALGH, David:Univ Strathclyde, Dept Math & Stat, Glasgow G1 1XH, Lanark, Scotland
hcfmusp.citation.scopus3
hcfmusp.contributor.author-fmusphcEDUARDO MASSAD
hcfmusp.contributor.author-fmusphcMARCOS AMAKU
hcfmusp.contributor.author-fmusphcMARCELO NASCIMENTO BURATTINI
hcfmusp.description.articlenumberUNSP 12
hcfmusp.description.issue1
hcfmusp.description.volume82
hcfmusp.origemWOS
hcfmusp.origem.pubmed31933012
hcfmusp.origem.scopus2-s2.0-85077786070
hcfmusp.origem.wosWOS:000514463600005
hcfmusp.publisher.cityNEW YORKeng
hcfmusp.publisher.countryUNITED STATESeng
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