Estimating the probability of dengue virus introduction and secondary autochthonous cases in Europe

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dc.contributorSistema FMUSP-HC: Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo (FMUSP) e Hospital das Clínicas da FMUSP
dc.contributor.authorMASSAD, Eduardo
dc.contributor.authorAMAKU, Marcos
dc.contributor.authorCOUTINHO, Francisco Antonio Bezerra
dc.contributor.authorSTRUCHINER, Claudio Jose
dc.contributor.authorBURATTINI, Marcelo Nascimento
dc.contributor.authorKHAN, Kamran
dc.contributor.authorLIU-HELMERSSON, Jing
dc.contributor.authorROCKLOV, Joacim
dc.contributor.authorKRAEMER, Moritz U. G.
dc.contributor.authorWILDER-SMITH, Annelies
dc.date.accessioned2018-05-08T14:34:06Z
dc.date.available2018-05-08T14:34:06Z
dc.date.issued2018
dc.description.abstractGiven the speed of air travel, diseases even with a short viremia such as dengue can be easily exported to dengue naive areas within 24 hours. We set out to estimate the risk of dengue virus introductions via travelers into Europe and number of secondary autochthonous cases as a result of the introduction. We applied mathematical modeling to estimate the number of dengue-viremic air passengers from 16 dengue-endemic countries to 27 European countries, taking into account the incidence of dengue in the exporting countries, travel volume and the probability of being viremic at the time of travel. Our models estimate a range from zero to 167 air passengers who are dengue-viremic at the time of travel from dengue endemic countries to each of the 27 receiving countries in one year. Germany receives the highest number of imported dengue-viremic air passengers followed by France and the United Kingdom. Our findings estimate 10 autochthonous secondary asymptomatic and symptomatic dengue infections, caused by the expected 124 infected travelers who arrived in Italy in 2012. The risk of onward transmission in Europe is reassuringly low, except where Aedes aegypti is present.
dc.description.indexMEDLINE
dc.description.sponsorshipHealthTheme of the Seventh Framework Programme of the European Community [282589]
dc.description.sponsorshipproject ZikaPLAN - European Union's Horizon research and innovation programme [734584]
dc.description.sponsorshipInternational Research Consortium on Dengue Risk Assessment Management and Surveillance (IDAMS) (European Commission) [21803]
dc.identifier.citationSCIENTIFIC REPORTS, v.8, article ID 4629, 12p, 2018
dc.identifier.doi10.1038/s41598-018-22590-5
dc.identifier.issn2045-2322
dc.identifier.urihttps://observatorio.fm.usp.br/handle/OPI/26339
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherNATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
dc.relation.ispartofScientific Reports
dc.rightsopenAccess
dc.rights.holderCopyright NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
dc.subject.otherrio-de-janeiro
dc.subject.othertemperature-fluctuations
dc.subject.otheraedes-albopictus
dc.subject.otherforeign visitors
dc.subject.otherolympic games
dc.subject.otherbrazil
dc.subject.otherimportations
dc.subject.otheroutbreak
dc.subject.otheraegypti
dc.subject.otherspread
dc.subject.wosMultidisciplinary Sciences
dc.titleEstimating the probability of dengue virus introduction and secondary autochthonous cases in Europe
dc.typearticle
dc.type.categoryoriginal article
dc.type.versionpublishedVersion
dspace.entity.typePublication
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryInglaterra
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryCanadá
hcfmusp.affiliation.countrySuécia
hcfmusp.affiliation.countrySingapura
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryisoca
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryisose
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryisogb
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryisosg
hcfmusp.author.externalSTRUCHINER, Claudio Jose:Fundacao Oswaldo Cruz, Programme Sci Computat, Rio De Janeiro, Brazil
hcfmusp.author.externalKHAN, Kamran:St Michaels Hosp, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Inst, Toronto, ON, Canada
hcfmusp.author.externalLIU-HELMERSSON, Jing:Umea Univ, Dept Publ Hlth & Clin Med Epidemiol & Global Hlth, SE-90185 Umea, Sweden
hcfmusp.author.externalROCKLOV, Joacim:Umea Univ, Dept Publ Hlth & Clin Med Epidemiol & Global Hlth, SE-90185 Umea, Sweden
hcfmusp.author.externalKRAEMER, Moritz U. G.:Harvard Med Sch, Boston, MA USA; Boston Childrens Hosp, Boston, MA USA; Univ Oxford, Dept Zool, Oxford, England
hcfmusp.author.externalWILDER-SMITH, Annelies:Umea Univ, Dept Publ Hlth & Clin Med Epidemiol & Global Hlth, SE-90185 Umea, Sweden; Heidelberg Univ, Inst Publ Hlth, Heidelberg, Germany; Nanyang Technol Univ, Lee Kong Chian Sch Med, Singapore, Singapore
hcfmusp.citation.scopus38
hcfmusp.contributor.author-fmusphcEDUARDO MASSAD
hcfmusp.contributor.author-fmusphcMARCOS AMAKU
hcfmusp.contributor.author-fmusphcFRANCISCO ANTONIO BEZERRA COUTINHO
hcfmusp.contributor.author-fmusphcMARCELO NASCIMENTO BURATTINI
hcfmusp.description.articlenumber4629
hcfmusp.description.volume8
hcfmusp.origemWOS
hcfmusp.origem.pubmed29545610
hcfmusp.origem.scopus2-s2.0-85044222422
hcfmusp.origem.wosWOS:000427465800009
hcfmusp.publisher.cityLONDON
hcfmusp.publisher.countryENGLAND
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