Quantifying excess deaths related to heatwaves under climate change scenarios: A multicountry time series modelling study

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dc.contributorSistema FMUSP-HC: Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo (FMUSP) e Hospital das Clínicas da FMUSP
dc.contributor.authorGUO, Yuming
dc.contributor.authorGASPARRINI, Antonio
dc.contributor.authorLI, Shanshan
dc.contributor.authorSERA, Francesco
dc.contributor.authorVICEDO-CABRERA, Ana Maria
dc.contributor.authorCOELHO, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio
dc.contributor.authorSALDIVA, Paulo Hilario Nascimento
dc.contributor.authorLAVIGNE, Eric
dc.contributor.authorTAWATSUPA, Benjawan
dc.contributor.authorPUNNASIRI, Kornwipa
dc.contributor.authorOVERCENCO, Ala
dc.contributor.authorCORREA, Patricia Matus
dc.contributor.authorORTEGA, Nicolas Valdes
dc.contributor.authorKAN, Haidong
dc.contributor.authorOSORIO, Samuel
dc.contributor.authorJAAKKOLA, Jouni J. K.
dc.contributor.authorRYTI, Niilo R. I.
dc.contributor.authorGOODMAN, Patrick G.
dc.contributor.authorZEKA, Ariana
dc.contributor.authorMICHELOZZI, Paola
dc.contributor.authorSCORTICHINI, Matteo
dc.contributor.authorHASHIZUME, Masahiro
dc.contributor.authorHONDA, Yasushi
dc.contributor.authorSEPOSO, Xerxes
dc.contributor.authorKIM, Ho
dc.contributor.authorTOBIAS, Aurelio
dc.contributor.authorINIGUEZ, Carmen
dc.contributor.authorFORSBERG, Bertil
dc.contributor.authorASTROM, Daniel Oudin
dc.contributor.authorGUO, Yue Leon
dc.contributor.authorCHEN, Bing-Yu
dc.contributor.authorZANOBETTI, Antonella
dc.contributor.authorSCHWARTZ, Joel
dc.contributor.authorTran Ngoc Dang
dc.contributor.authorDung Do Van
dc.contributor.authorBELL, Michelle L.
dc.contributor.authorARMSTRONG, Ben
dc.contributor.authorEBI, Kristie L.
dc.contributor.authorTONG, Shilu
dc.date.accessioned2018-11-21T17:06:24Z
dc.date.available2018-11-21T17:06:24Z
dc.date.issued2018
dc.description.abstractBackground Heatwaves are a critical public health problem. There will be an increase in the frequency and severity of heatwaves under changing climate. However, evidence about the impacts of climate change on heatwave-related mortality at a global scale is limited. Methods and findings We collected historical daily time series of mean temperature and mortality for all causes or non-external causes, in periods ranging from January 1, 1984, to December 31, 2015, in 412 communities within 20 countries/regions. We estimated heatwave +/- mortality associations through a two-stage time series design. Current and future daily mean temperature series were projected under four scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions from 1971 +/- 2099, with five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality in relation to heatwaves in the future under each scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, with two assumptions for adaptation (no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation) and three scenarios of population change (high variant, median variant, and low variant). Results show that, if there is no adaptation, heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to increase the most in tropical and subtropical countries/regions (close to the equator), while European countries and the United States will have smaller percent increases in heatwave-related excess mortality. The higher the population variant and the greenhouse gas emissions, the higher the increase of heatwave-related excess mortality in the future. The changes in 2031 +/- 2080 compared with 1971 +/- 2020 range from approximately 2,000% in Colombia to 150% in Moldova under the highest emission scenario and high-variant population scenario, without any adaptation. If we considered hypothetical adaptation to future climate, under high-variant population scenario and all scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, the heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to still increase across all the countries/regions except Moldova and Japan. However, the increase would be much smaller than the no adaptation scenario. The simple assumptions with respect to adaptation as follows: no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation results in some uncertainties of projections. Conclusions This study provides a comprehensive characterisation of future heatwave-related excess mortality across various regions and under alternative scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, different assumptions of adaptation, and different scenarios of population change. The projections can help decision makers in planning adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change.
dc.description.indexMEDLINE
dc.description.sponsorshipCareer Development Fellowship of Australian National Health and Medical Research Council [APP1107107]
dc.description.sponsorshipMedical Research Council-UK [MR/M022625/1]
dc.description.sponsorshipEarly Career Fellowship of Australian National Health and Medical Research Council [APP1109193]
dc.description.sponsorshipNational Health and Medical Research Council
dc.description.sponsorshipCentre of Research Excellence (CRE) Centre for Air quality and health Research and evaluation (CAR) [APP1030259]
dc.description.sponsorshipMinistry of Education of Spain [PRX17/00705]
dc.description.sponsorshipResearch Council for Health, Academy of Finland [266314]
dc.description.sponsorshipGlobal Research Laboratory through the National Research Foundation of Korea [K21004000001-10A0500-00710]
dc.description.sponsorshipEnvironment Research and Technology Development Fund of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan [S-14]
dc.description.sponsorshipNational Health Research Institutes of Taiwan [NHRI-EM-106-SP03]
dc.description.sponsorshipUS Environmental Protection Agency Assistance Agreement [83587101]
dc.identifier.citationPLOS MEDICINE, v.15, n.7, article ID e1002629, 17p, 2018
dc.identifier.doi10.1371/journal.pmed.1002629
dc.identifier.issn1549-1676
dc.identifier.urihttps://observatorio.fm.usp.br/handle/OPI/29583
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherPUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE
dc.relation.ispartofPlos Medicine
dc.rightsopenAccess
dc.rights.holderCopyright PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE
dc.subject.otherheat-wave mortality
dc.subject.otherunited-states
dc.subject.otherambient-temperature
dc.subject.otherhuman health
dc.subject.otheradaptation
dc.subject.otherimpact
dc.subject.othereurope
dc.subject.wosMedicine, General & Internal
dc.titleQuantifying excess deaths related to heatwaves under climate change scenarios: A multicountry time series modelling study
dc.typearticle
dc.type.categoryoriginal article
dc.type.versionpublishedVersion
dspace.entity.typePublication
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryInglaterra
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryCanadá
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryTailândia
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryMoldavia
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryChile
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryChina
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryFinlândia
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryIrlanda
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryAustrália
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryJapão
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryCoréia do Sul
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryEspanha
hcfmusp.affiliation.countrySuécia
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryTaiwan
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryEstados Unidos
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryVietnã
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryItália
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryisoie
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryisogb
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryisoit
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryisojp
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryisokr
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryisoes
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryisose
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryisotw
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryisoau
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryisoca
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryisoth
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryisomd
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryisocl
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryisocn
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryisofi
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryisous
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryisovn
hcfmusp.author.externalGUO, Yuming:Monash Univ, Sch Publ Hlth & Prevent Med, Dept Epidemiol & Prevent Med, Melbourne, Vic, Australia
hcfmusp.author.externalGASPARRINI, Antonio:London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Publ Hlth Environm & Soc, London, England
hcfmusp.author.externalLI, Shanshan:Monash Univ, Sch Publ Hlth & Prevent Med, Dept Epidemiol & Prevent Med, Melbourne, Vic, Australia
hcfmusp.author.externalSERA, Francesco:London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Publ Hlth Environm & Soc, London, England
hcfmusp.author.externalVICEDO-CABRERA, Ana Maria:London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Publ Hlth Environm & Soc, London, England
hcfmusp.author.externalLAVIGNE, Eric:Univ Ottawa, Sch Epidemiol & Publ Hlth, Ottawa, ON, Canada
hcfmusp.author.externalTAWATSUPA, Benjawan:Minist Publ Hlth, Dept Hlth, Hlth Impact Assessment Div, Muang Nonthaburi, Thailand
hcfmusp.author.externalPUNNASIRI, Kornwipa:Minist Publ Hlth, Dept Hlth, Hlth Impact Assessment Div, Muang Nonthaburi, Thailand
hcfmusp.author.externalOVERCENCO, Ala:Lab Management Publ Hlth, Kishinev, Moldova
hcfmusp.author.externalCORREA, Patricia Matus:Univ Los Andes, Dept Publ Hlth, Santiago, Chile
hcfmusp.author.externalORTEGA, Nicolas Valdes:Univ Los Andes, Dept Publ Hlth, Santiago, Chile
hcfmusp.author.externalKAN, Haidong:Fudan Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Environm Hlth, Shanghai, Peoples R China
hcfmusp.author.externalOSORIO, Samuel:Univ Sao Paulo, Dept Environm Hlth, Sao Paulo, Brazil
hcfmusp.author.externalJAAKKOLA, Jouni J. K.:Univ Oulu, Ctr Environm & Resp Hlth Res, Oulu, Finland; Oulu Univ Hosp, Med Res Ctr Oulu, Oulu, Finland; Univ Oulu, Oulu, Finland
hcfmusp.author.externalRYTI, Niilo R. I.:Univ Oulu, Ctr Environm & Resp Hlth Res, Oulu, Finland; Oulu Univ Hosp, Med Res Ctr Oulu, Oulu, Finland; Univ Oulu, Oulu, Finland
hcfmusp.author.externalGOODMAN, Patrick G.:Dublin Inst Technol, Sch Phys, Dublin, Ireland
hcfmusp.author.externalZEKA, Ariana:Brunel Univ London, Inst Environm Hlth & Soc, London, England
hcfmusp.author.externalMICHELOZZI, Paola:Lazio Reg Hlth Serv, Dept Epidemiol, Rome, Italy
hcfmusp.author.externalSCORTICHINI, Matteo:Lazio Reg Hlth Serv, Dept Epidemiol, Rome, Italy
hcfmusp.author.externalHASHIZUME, Masahiro:Nagasaki Univ, Inst Trop Med, Dept Pediat Infect Dis, Nagasaki, Japan
hcfmusp.author.externalHONDA, Yasushi:Univ Tsukuba, Fac Hlth & Sport Sci, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
hcfmusp.author.externalSEPOSO, Xerxes:Kyoto Univ, Dept Environm Engn, Kyoto, Japan
hcfmusp.author.externalKIM, Ho:Seoul Natl Univ, Grad Sch Publ Hlth, Seoul, South Korea
hcfmusp.author.externalTOBIAS, Aurelio:Spanish Council Sci Res, Inst Environm Assessment & Water Res, Barcelona, Spain
hcfmusp.author.externalINIGUEZ, Carmen:Univ Valencia, Epidemiol & Environm Hlth Joint Res Unit, Valencia, Spain
hcfmusp.author.externalFORSBERG, Bertil:Umea Univ, Dept Publ Hlth & Clin Med, Umea, Sweden
hcfmusp.author.externalASTROM, Daniel Oudin:Umea Univ, Dept Publ Hlth & Clin Med, Umea, Sweden
hcfmusp.author.externalGUO, Yue Leon:Natl Hlth Res Inst, Natl Inst Environm Hlth Sci, Zhunan, Taiwan
hcfmusp.author.externalCHEN, Bing-Yu:Natl Taiwan Univ, Coll Med, Dept Environm & Occupat Med, Taipei, Taiwan; Natl Taiwan Univ Hosp, Taipei, Taiwan
hcfmusp.author.externalZANOBETTI, Antonella:Harvard TH Chan Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Environm Hlth, Boston, MA USA
hcfmusp.author.externalSCHWARTZ, Joel:Harvard TH Chan Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Environm Hlth, Boston, MA USA
hcfmusp.author.externalTran Ngoc Dang:Univ Med & Pharm, Fac Publ Hlth, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam; Duy Tan Univ, Inst Res & Dev, Da Nang, Vietnam
hcfmusp.author.externalDung Do Van:Univ Med & Pharm, Fac Publ Hlth, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
hcfmusp.author.externalBELL, Michelle L.:Yale Univ, Sch Forestry & Environm Studies, New Haven, CT 06511 USA
hcfmusp.author.externalARMSTRONG, Ben:London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Publ Hlth Environm & Soc, London, England
hcfmusp.author.externalEBI, Kristie L.:Univ Washington, Ctr Hlth & Global Environm, Seattle, WA 98195 USA
hcfmusp.author.externalTONG, Shilu:Anhui Med Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Hefei, Anhui, Peoples R China; Anhui Med Univ, Inst Environm & Human Hlth, Hefei, Anhui, Peoples R China; Shanghai Jiao Tong Univ, Shanghai Childrens Med Ctr, Shanghai, Peoples R China; Queensland Univ Technol, Sch Publ Hlth & Social Work, Brisbane, Qld, Australia
hcfmusp.citation.scopus236
hcfmusp.contributor.author-fmusphcMICHELINE DE SOUSA ZANOTTI STAGLIORIO COELHO
hcfmusp.contributor.author-fmusphcPAULO HILARIO NASCIMENTO SALDIVA
hcfmusp.description.articlenumbere1002629
hcfmusp.description.issue7
hcfmusp.description.volume15
hcfmusp.origemWOS
hcfmusp.origem.pubmed30063714
hcfmusp.origem.scopus2-s2.0-85051119247
hcfmusp.origem.wosWOS:000440339700034
hcfmusp.publisher.citySAN FRANCISCO
hcfmusp.publisher.countryUSA
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