City-level impact of extreme temperatures and mortality in Latin America

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dc.contributorSistema FMUSP-HC: Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo (FMUSP) e Hospital das Clínicas da FMUSP
dc.contributor.authorKEPHART, Josiah L.
dc.contributor.authorSANCHEZ, Brisa N.
dc.contributor.authorMOORE, Jeffrey
dc.contributor.authorSCHINASI, Leah H.
dc.contributor.authorBAKHTSIYARAVA, Maryia
dc.contributor.authorJU, Yang
dc.contributor.authorGOUVEIA, Nelson
dc.contributor.authorCAIAFFA, Waleska T.
dc.contributor.authorDRONOVA, Iryna
dc.contributor.authorARUNACHALAM, Saravanan
dc.contributor.authorROUX, Ana V. Diez
dc.contributor.authorRODRIGUEZ, Daniel A.
dc.date.accessioned2023-04-14T18:00:45Z
dc.date.available2023-04-14T18:00:45Z
dc.date.issued2022
dc.description.abstractClimate change and urbanization are rapidly increasing human exposure to extreme ambient temperatures, yet few studies have examined temperature and mortality in Latin America. We conducted a nonlinear, distributed-lag, longitudinal analysis of daily ambient temperatures and mortality among 326 Latin American cities between 2002 and 2015. We observed 15,431,532 deaths among approximate to 2.9 billion person-years of risk. The excess death fraction of total deaths was 0.67% (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.58-0.74%) for heat-related deaths and 5.09% (95% CI 4.64-5.47%) for cold-related deaths. The relative risk of death was 1.057 (95% CI 1.046-1.067%) per 1 degrees C higher temperature during extreme heat and 1.034 (95% CI 1.028-1.040%) per 1 degrees C lower temperature during extreme cold. In Latin American cities, a substantial proportion of deaths is attributable to nonoptimal ambient temperatures. Marginal increases in observed hot temperatures are associated with steep increases in mortality risk. These risks were strongest among older adults and for cardiovascular and respiratory deaths. An ecological analysis of 326 cities in 9 countries across Latin America found that changes in ambient temperature have a substantial contribution to all-cause mortality, with small increases in extreme heat associated with steep increases in mortality risk.eng
dc.description.indexMEDLINE
dc.description.indexPubMed
dc.description.indexWoS
dc.description.indexScopus
dc.description.sponsorshipWellcome Trust [216029/Z/19/Z, 205177/Z/16/Z]
dc.identifier.citationNATURE MEDICINE, v.28, n.8, p.1700-+, 2022
dc.identifier.doi10.1038/s41591-022-01872-6
dc.identifier.eissn1546-170X
dc.identifier.issn1078-8956
dc.identifier.urihttps://observatorio.fm.usp.br/handle/OPI/53045
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherNATURE PORTFOLIOeng
dc.relation.ispartofNature Medicine
dc.rightsrestrictedAccesseng
dc.rights.holderCopyright NATURE PORTFOLIOeng
dc.subject.otherheat-related mortalityeng
dc.subject.otherair-pollutioneng
dc.subject.othersao-pauloeng
dc.subject.othervulnerabilityeng
dc.subject.othermetaanalysiseng
dc.subject.otherprojectionseng
dc.subject.otherclimateeng
dc.subject.othercoldeng
dc.subject.wosBiochemistry & Molecular Biologyeng
dc.subject.wosCell Biologyeng
dc.subject.wosMedicine, Research & Experimentaleng
dc.titleCity-level impact of extreme temperatures and mortality in Latin Americaeng
dc.typearticleeng
dc.type.categoryoriginal articleeng
dc.type.versionpublishedVersioneng
dspace.entity.typePublication
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryEstados Unidos
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryChina
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryisous
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryisocn
hcfmusp.author.externalKEPHART, Josiah L.:Drexel Dornsife Sch Publ Hlth, Urban Hlth Collaborat, Philadelphia, PA 19104 USA
hcfmusp.author.externalSANCHEZ, Brisa N.:Drexel Dornsife Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Epidemiol & Biostat, Philadelphia, PA USA
hcfmusp.author.externalMOORE, Jeffrey:Drexel Dornsife Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Epidemiol & Biostat, Philadelphia, PA USA
hcfmusp.author.externalSCHINASI, Leah H.:Drexel Dornsife Sch Publ Hlth, Urban Hlth Collaborat, Philadelphia, PA 19104 USA; Drexel Dornsife Sch Publ Hlth3, Dept Environm & Occupat Hlth, Philadelphia, PA USA
hcfmusp.author.externalBAKHTSIYARAVA, Maryia:Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept City & Reg Planning, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA; Univ Calif Berkeley, Inst Transportat Studies, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA
hcfmusp.author.externalJU, Yang:Nanjing Univ, Sch Architecture & Urban Planning, Nanjing, Peoples R China
hcfmusp.author.externalCAIAFFA, Waleska T.:Univ Fed Minas Gerais, Observ Saude Urbana Belo Horizonte, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil
hcfmusp.author.externalDRONOVA, Iryna:Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Environm Sci Policy & Management, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA; Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Landscape Architecture & Environm Planning, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA
hcfmusp.author.externalARUNACHALAM, Saravanan:Univ N Carolina, Inst Environm, Chapel Hill, NC 27515 USA
hcfmusp.author.externalROUX, Ana V. Diez:Drexel Dornsife Sch Publ Hlth, Urban Hlth Collaborat, Philadelphia, PA 19104 USA; Drexel Dornsife Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Epidemiol & Biostat, Philadelphia, PA USA
hcfmusp.author.externalRODRIGUEZ, Daniel A.:Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept City & Reg Planning, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA; Univ Calif Berkeley, Inst Transportat Studies, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA
hcfmusp.citation.scopus60
hcfmusp.contributor.author-fmusphcNELSON DA CRUZ GOUVEIA
hcfmusp.description.beginpage1700
hcfmusp.description.endpage+
hcfmusp.description.issue8
hcfmusp.description.volume28
hcfmusp.origemWOS
hcfmusp.origem.pubmed35760859
hcfmusp.origem.scopus2-s2.0-85132934674
hcfmusp.origem.wosWOS:000817012300003
hcfmusp.publisher.cityBERLINeng
hcfmusp.publisher.countryGERMANYeng
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