Mortality risk prediction in high-risk patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting: Are traditional risk scores accurate?

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dc.contributorSistema FMUSP-HC: Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo (FMUSP) e Hospital das Clínicas da FMUSP
dc.contributor.authorGONCHAROV, Maxim
dc.contributor.authorMEJIA, Omar Asdrubal Vilca
dc.contributor.authorARTHUR, Camila Perez de Souza
dc.contributor.authorORLANDI, Bianca Maria Maglia
dc.contributor.authorSOUSA, Alexandre
dc.contributor.authorOLIVEIRA, Marco Antonio Praca
dc.contributor.authorATIK, Fernando Antibas
dc.contributor.authorSEGALOTE, Rodrigo Coelho
dc.contributor.authorTIVERON, Marcos Gradim
dc.contributor.authorSILVA, Pedro Gabriel Melo de Barros e
dc.contributor.authorNAKAZONE, Marcelo Arruda
dc.contributor.authorLISBOA, Luiz Augusto Ferreira
dc.contributor.authorDALLAN, Luis Alberto Oliveira
dc.contributor.authorZHENG, Zhe
dc.contributor.authorHU, Shengshou
dc.contributor.authorJATENE, Fabio Biscegli
dc.date.accessioned2021-10-20T13:56:12Z
dc.date.available2021-10-20T13:56:12Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.description.abstractBackground The performance of traditional scores is significantly limited to predict mortality in high-risk cardiac surgery. The aim of this study was to compare the performance of STS, ESII and HiriSCORE models in predicting mortality in high-risk patients undergoing CABG. Methods Cross-sectional analysis in the international prospective database of high-risk patients: HiriSCORE project. We evaluated 248 patients with STS or ESII (5-10%) undergoing CABG in 8 hospitals in Brazil and China. The main outcome was mortality, defined as all deaths occurred during the hospitalization in which the operation was performed, even after 30 days. Five variables were selected as predictors of mortality in this cohort of patients. The model's performance was evaluated through the calibration-in-the-large and the receiver operating curve (ROC) tests. Results The mean age was 69.90 +/- 9.45, with 52.02% being female, 25% of the patients were on New York Heart Association (NYHA) class IV and 49.6% had Canadian Cardiovascular Society (CCS) class 4 angina, and 85.5% had urgency or emergency status. The mortality observed in the sample was 13.31%. The HiriSCORE model showed better calibration (15.0%) compared to ESII (6.6%) and the STS model (2.0%). In the ROC curve, the HiriSCORE model showed better accuracy (ROC = 0.74) than the traditional models STS (ROC = 0.67) and ESII (ROC = 0.50). Conclusion Traditional models were inadequate to predict mortality of high-risk patients undergoing CABG. However, the HiriSCORE model was simple and accurate to predict mortality in high-risk patients.eng
dc.description.indexMEDLINEeng
dc.identifier.citationPLOS ONE, v.16, n.8, article ID e0255662, 13p, 2021
dc.identifier.doi10.1371/journal.pone.0255662
dc.identifier.issn1932-6203
dc.identifier.urihttps://observatorio.fm.usp.br/handle/OPI/42099
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherPUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCEeng
dc.relation.ispartofPlos One
dc.rightsopenAccesseng
dc.rights.holderCopyright PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCEeng
dc.subject.othercardiac-surgeryeng
dc.subject.othereuroscore iieng
dc.subject.othersocietyeng
dc.subject.othervalidationeng
dc.subject.otheroutcomeseng
dc.subject.otherperformanceeng
dc.subject.othermodelseng
dc.subject.otherimpacteng
dc.subject.wosMultidisciplinary Scienceseng
dc.titleMortality risk prediction in high-risk patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting: Are traditional risk scores accurate?eng
dc.typearticleeng
dc.type.categoryoriginal articleeng
dc.type.versionpublishedVersioneng
dspace.entity.typePublication
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryChina
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryisocn
hcfmusp.author.externalARTHUR, Camila Perez de Souza:Beneficencia Portuguesa Sao Paulo, Dept Cardiovasc Surg, Sao Paulo, Brazil
hcfmusp.author.externalSOUSA, Alexandre:Beneficencia Portuguesa Sao Paulo, Dept Cardiovasc Surg, Sao Paulo, Brazil
hcfmusp.author.externalOLIVEIRA, Marco Antonio Praca:Beneficencia Portuguesa Sao Paulo, Dept Cardiovasc Surg, Sao Paulo, Brazil
hcfmusp.author.externalATIK, Fernando Antibas:Inst Cardiol Dist Fed, Dept Cardiovasc Surg, Brasilia, DF, Brazil
hcfmusp.author.externalSEGALOTE, Rodrigo Coelho:Inst Nacl Cardiol Rio De Janeiro, Dept Cardiovasc Surg, Rio De Janeiro, Brazil
hcfmusp.author.externalTIVERON, Marcos Gradim:Hosp Santa Casa Misericordia Marilia, Dept Cardiovasc Surg, Marilia, SP, Brazil
hcfmusp.author.externalSILVA, Pedro Gabriel Melo de Barros e:Hosp Samaritano Paulista, Dept Cardiovasc Surg, Sao Paulo, Brazil
hcfmusp.author.externalNAKAZONE, Marcelo Arruda:Hosp Base Sao Jose Rio Preto, Dept Cardiovasc Surg, Sao Jose Do Rio Preto, Brazil
hcfmusp.author.externalZHENG, Zhe:Fuwai Hosp, Dept Cardiovasc Surg, Beijing, Peoples R China
hcfmusp.author.externalHU, Shengshou:Fuwai Hosp, Dept Cardiovasc Surg, Beijing, Peoples R China
hcfmusp.citation.scopus2
hcfmusp.contributor.author-fmusphcMAXIM GONCHAROV
hcfmusp.contributor.author-fmusphcOMAR ASDRUBAL VILCA MEJIA
hcfmusp.contributor.author-fmusphcBIANCA MARIA MAGLIA ORLANDI
hcfmusp.contributor.author-fmusphcLUIZ AUGUSTO FERREIRA LISBOA
hcfmusp.contributor.author-fmusphcLUIS ALBERTO OLIVEIRA DALLAN
hcfmusp.contributor.author-fmusphcFABIO BISCEGLI JATENE
hcfmusp.description.articlenumbere0255662
hcfmusp.description.issue8
hcfmusp.description.volume16
hcfmusp.origemWOS
hcfmusp.origem.pubmed34343224
hcfmusp.origem.scopus2-s2.0-85111823321
hcfmusp.origem.wosWOS:000685264200044
hcfmusp.publisher.citySAN FRANCISCOeng
hcfmusp.publisher.countryUSAeng
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