Understanding the Potential Impact of Different Drug Properties on Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Transmission and Disease Burden: A Modelling Analysis

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dc.contributorSistema FMUSP-HC: Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo (FMUSP) e Hospital das Clínicas da FMUSP
dc.contributor.authorWHITTAKER, Charles
dc.contributor.authorWATSON, Oliver J.
dc.contributor.authorALVAREZ-MORENO, Carlos
dc.contributor.authorANGKASEKWINAI, Nasikarn
dc.contributor.authorBOONYASIRI, Adhiratha
dc.contributor.authorTRIANA, Luis Carlos
dc.contributor.authorCHANDA, Duncan
dc.contributor.authorCHAROENPONG, Lantharita
dc.contributor.authorCHAYAKULKEEREE, Methee
dc.contributor.authorCOOKE, Graham S.
dc.contributor.authorCRODA, Julio
dc.contributor.authorCUCUNUBA, Zulma M.
dc.contributor.authorDJAAFARA, Bimandra A.
dc.contributor.authorESTOFOLETE, Cassia F.
dc.contributor.authorGRILLET, Maria-Eugenia
dc.contributor.authorFARIA, Nuno R.
dc.contributor.authorCOSTA, Silvia Figueiredo
dc.contributor.authorFORERO-PENA, David A.
dc.contributor.authorGIBB, Diana M.
dc.contributor.authorGORDON, Anthony C.
dc.contributor.authorHAMERS, Raph L.
dc.contributor.authorHAMLET, Arran
dc.contributor.authorIRAWANY, Vera
dc.contributor.authorJITMUANG, Anupop
dc.contributor.authorKEURUEANGKUL, Nukool
dc.contributor.authorKIMANI, Teresia Njoki
dc.contributor.authorLAMPO, Margarita
dc.contributor.authorLEVIN, Anna S.
dc.contributor.authorLOPARDO, Gustavo
dc.contributor.authorMUSTAFA, Rima
dc.contributor.authorNAYAGAM, Shevanthi
dc.contributor.authorNGAMPRASERTCHAI, Thundon
dc.contributor.authorNJERI, Ng'ang'a Irene Hannah
dc.contributor.authorNOGUEIRA, Mauricio L.
dc.contributor.authorORTIZ-PRADO, Esteban
dc.contributor.authorPERROUD JR., Mauricio W.
dc.contributor.authorPHILLIPS, Andrew N.
dc.contributor.authorPROMSIN, Panuwat
dc.contributor.authorQAVI, Ambar
dc.contributor.authorRODGER, Alison J.
dc.contributor.authorSABINO, Ester C.
dc.contributor.authorSANGKAEW, Sorawat
dc.contributor.authorSARI, Djayanti
dc.contributor.authorSIRIJATUPHAT, Rujipas
dc.contributor.authorSPOSITO, Andrei C.
dc.contributor.authorSRISANGTHONG, Pratthana
dc.contributor.authorTHOMPSON, Hayley A.
dc.contributor.authorUDWADIA, Zarir
dc.contributor.authorVALDERRAMA-BELTRAN, Sandra
dc.contributor.authorWINSKILL, Peter
dc.contributor.authorGHANI, Azra C.
dc.contributor.authorWALKER, Patrick G. T.
dc.contributor.authorHALLETT, Timothy B.
dc.date.accessioned2022-10-26T14:27:08Z
dc.date.available2022-10-26T14:27:08Z
dc.date.issued2022
dc.description.abstractCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) drug development to date has focused on reducing deaths among hospitalized patients, but greater public-health impact could come from drugs delivered to outpatients early in the course of disease, and that prevent hospitalization and/or onwards transmission. Background The public health impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has motivated a rapid search for potential therapeutics, with some key successes. However, the potential impact of different treatments, and consequently research and procurement priorities, have not been clear. Methods Using a mathematical model of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission, COVID-19 disease and clinical care, we explore the public-health impact of different potential therapeutics, under a range of scenarios varying healthcare capacity, epidemic trajectories; and drug efficacy in the absence of supportive care. Results The impact of drugs like dexamethasone (delivered to the most critically-ill in hospital and whose therapeutic benefit is expected to depend on the availability of supportive care such as oxygen and mechanical ventilation) is likely to be limited in settings where healthcare capacity is lowest or where uncontrolled epidemics result in hospitals being overwhelmed. As such, it may avert 22% of deaths in high-income countries but only 8% in low-income countries (assuming R = 1.35). Therapeutics for different patient populations (those not in hospital, early in the course of infection) and types of benefit (reducing disease severity or infectiousness, preventing hospitalization) could have much greater benefits, particularly in resource-poor settings facing large epidemics. Conclusions Advances in the treatment of COVID-19 to date have been focused on hospitalized-patients and predicated on an assumption of adequate access to supportive care. Therapeutics delivered earlier in the course of infection that reduce the need for healthcare or reduce infectiousness could have significant impact, and research into their efficacy and means of delivery should be a priority.eng
dc.description.indexMEDLINEeng
dc.description.sponsorshipMedical Research Council (MRC) Doctoral Training Partnership PhD Studentship
dc.description.sponsorshipMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis
dc.description.sponsorshipUK Medical Research Council (MRC)
dc.description.sponsorshipUK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO), under the MRC/FCDO Concordat agreement
dc.description.sponsorshipEuropean Union [602525]
dc.description.sponsorshipWellcome Trust
dc.description.sponsorshipUK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) [221350/Z/20/Z]
dc.description.sponsorshipMedical Research Council-Sao Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP) CADDE partnership award [MR/S0195/1, FAPESP 18/14389-0]
dc.description.sponsorshipRoyal Society [204311/Z/16/Z]
dc.description.sponsorshipWorld Health Organization (WHO)
dc.description.sponsorshipUK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO)
dc.description.sponsorshipNIHR Research Professorship [RP-2015-06-18]
dc.description.sponsorshipWellcome Trust Collaborative Award [2017-date]
dc.description.sponsorshipNational Institutes of Health (NIH)
dc.description.sponsorshipGates Foundation
dc.description.sponsorshipSanofi-Aventis Farmaceutica
dc.description.sponsorshipMRC
dc.description.sponsorshipBill & Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF)
dc.description.sponsorshipNIH
dc.description.sponsorshipHSBC
dc.description.sponsorshipGlobal Fund
dc.description.sponsorshipNIHR
dc.identifier.citationCLINICAL INFECTIOUS DISEASES, v.75, n.1, p.E224-E233, 2022
dc.identifier.doi10.1093/cid/ciab837
dc.identifier.eissn1537-6591
dc.identifier.issn1058-4838
dc.identifier.urihttps://observatorio.fm.usp.br/handle/OPI/49243
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherOXFORD UNIV PRESS INCeng
dc.relation.ispartofClinical Infectious Diseases
dc.rightsrestrictedAccesseng
dc.rights.holderCopyright OXFORD UNIV PRESS INCeng
dc.subjectSARS-CoV-2eng
dc.subjectCOVID-19eng
dc.subjectepidemiologyeng
dc.subjecttherapeuticseng
dc.subjectmodellingeng
dc.subject.othercovid-19eng
dc.subject.otheraccesseng
dc.subject.othercareeng
dc.subject.wosImmunologyeng
dc.subject.wosInfectious Diseaseseng
dc.subject.wosMicrobiologyeng
dc.titleUnderstanding the Potential Impact of Different Drug Properties on Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Transmission and Disease Burden: A Modelling Analysiseng
dc.typearticleeng
dc.type.categoryoriginal articleeng
dc.type.versionpublishedVersioneng
dspace.entity.typePublication
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryInglaterra
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryColômbia
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryTailândia
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryZâmbia
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryEstados Unidos
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryIndonésia
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryVenezuela
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryQuênia
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryArgentina
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryEquador
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryÍndia
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryisoco
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryisozm
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryisoth
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryisogb
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryisous
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hcfmusp.affiliation.countryisoke
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryisoar
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryisoec
hcfmusp.affiliation.countryisoin
hcfmusp.author.externalWHITTAKER, Charles:Imperial Coll London, MRC Ctr Global Infect Dis Anal, London, England
hcfmusp.author.externalWATSON, Oliver J.:Imperial Coll London, MRC Ctr Global Infect Dis Anal, London, England
hcfmusp.author.externalALVAREZ-MORENO, Carlos:Univ Nacl Colombia, Clin Univ Colombia, Clin Colsanitas, Fac Med, Bogota, Colombia
hcfmusp.author.externalANGKASEKWINAI, Nasikarn:Mahidol Univ, Siriraj Hosp, Fac Med, Div Infect Dis & Trop Med,Dept Med, Bangkok, Thailand
hcfmusp.author.externalBOONYASIRI, Adhiratha:Mahidol Univ, Siriraj Hosp, Fac Med, Bangkok, Thailand
hcfmusp.author.externalTRIANA, Luis Carlos:Pontificia Univ Javeriana, Hosp Univ San Ignacio, Bogota, Colombia
hcfmusp.author.externalCHANDA, Duncan:Univ Teaching Hosp, Adult Infect Dis Ctr, Lusaka, Zambia; Univ Zambia, Dept Internal Med, Sch Med, Lusaka, Zambia
hcfmusp.author.externalCHAROENPONG, Lantharita:Bamrasnaradura Infect Dis Inst, Minist Publ Hlth, Dept Dis Control, Nonthaburi, Thailand
hcfmusp.author.externalCHAYAKULKEEREE, Methee:Mahidol Univ, Siriraj Hosp, Fac Med, Div Infect Dis & Trop Med,Dept Med, Bangkok, Thailand
hcfmusp.author.externalCOOKE, Graham S.:Imperial Coll London, Dept Infect Dis, London, England; Imperial Coll NHS Trust, NIHR Biomed Res Ctr, London, England
hcfmusp.author.externalCRODA, Julio:Fundacao Oswaldo Cruz, Campo Grande, MS, Brazil; Univ Fed Mato Grosso do Sul, Sch Med, Campo Grande, Brazil; Yale Sch Publ Hlth, New Haven, CT USA
hcfmusp.author.externalCUCUNUBA, Zulma M.:Imperial Coll London, MRC Ctr Global Infect Dis Anal, London, England; Pontificia Univ Javeriana, Fac Med, Dept Epidmiol Clin & Bioestadist, Bogota, Colombia
hcfmusp.author.externalDJAAFARA, Bimandra A.:Imperial Coll London, MRC Ctr Global Infect Dis Anal, London, England; Eijkman Oxford Clin Res Unit, Jakarta, Indonesia
hcfmusp.author.externalESTOFOLETE, Cassia F.:Fac Med Sao Jose Rio Preto FAMERP, Sao Jose Do Rio Preto, Brazil
hcfmusp.author.externalGRILLET, Maria-Eugenia:Univ Cent Venezuela, Fac Ciencias, Inst Zool & Ecol Trop, Caracas, Venezuela
hcfmusp.author.externalFORERO-PENA, David A.:Biomed Res & Therapeut Vaccines Inst, Ciudad Bolivar, Ciudad Bolivar, Venezuela
hcfmusp.author.externalGIBB, Diana M.:UCL, MRC Clin Trials Unit, London, England
hcfmusp.author.externalGORDON, Anthony C.:Imperial Coll London, Div Anaesthet Pain Med & Intens Care, London, England
hcfmusp.author.externalHAMERS, Raph L.:Eijkman Oxford Clin Res Unit, Jakarta, Indonesia; Univ Oxford, Vtr Tropical Med & Global Hlth, Nuffield Dept Med, Oxford, England
hcfmusp.author.externalHAMLET, Arran:Imperial Coll London, MRC Ctr Global Infect Dis Anal, London, England
hcfmusp.author.externalIRAWANY, Vera:Univ Indonesia, Fatmawati Gen Hosp, Fac Med, Jakarta, Indonesia
hcfmusp.author.externalJITMUANG, Anupop:Mahidol Univ, Siriraj Hosp, Fac Med, Div Infect Dis & Trop Med,Dept Med, Bangkok, Thailand
hcfmusp.author.externalKEURUEANGKUL, Nukool:Samutprakan Hosp, Bangkok, Thailand
hcfmusp.author.externalKIMANI, Teresia Njoki:Kenyan Minist Hlth, Nairobi, Kenya
hcfmusp.author.externalLAMPO, Margarita:Inst Venezolano Invest Cient, Caracas, Venezuela
hcfmusp.author.externalLOPARDO, Gustavo:Hosp Bernardo Houssay, Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina
hcfmusp.author.externalMUSTAFA, Rima:Imperial Coll London, Dept Epidemiol & Biostat, London, England
hcfmusp.author.externalNAYAGAM, Shevanthi:Imperial Coll London, MRC Ctr Global Infect Dis Anal, London, England
hcfmusp.author.externalNGAMPRASERTCHAI, Thundon:Mahidol Univ, Fac Trop Med, Dept Clin Trop Med, Bangkok, Thailand
hcfmusp.author.externalNJERI, Ng'ang'a Irene Hannah:Kenyan Minist Hlth, Kiambu Cty, Kenya
hcfmusp.author.externalNOGUEIRA, Mauricio L.:Fac Med Sao Jose Rio Preto FAMERP, Sao Jose Do Rio Preto, Brazil
hcfmusp.author.externalORTIZ-PRADO, Esteban:Univ Amer, OneHlth Global Res Grp, Quito, Ecuador
hcfmusp.author.externalPERROUD JR., Mauricio W.:Univ Estadual Campinas, Sch Med Sci, Campinas, Brazil
hcfmusp.author.externalPHILLIPS, Andrew N.:UCL, Inst Global Hlth, London, England
hcfmusp.author.externalPROMSIN, Panuwat:Mahidol Univ, Siriraj Hosp, Fac Med, Crit Care Div,Dept Med, Bangkok, Thailand
hcfmusp.author.externalQAVI, Ambar:Imperial Coll London, Sch Public Hlth, London, England
hcfmusp.author.externalRODGER, Alison J.:UCL, Inst Global Hlth, London, England
hcfmusp.author.externalSANGKAEW, Sorawat:Imperial Coll London, Fac Med, Dept Infect Dis, Sect Adult Infect Dis, London, England
hcfmusp.author.externalSARI, Djayanti:Publ Hlth & Nursing Univ Gadjah Mada, Publ Hosp Dr Sardjito, Fac Med, Dept Anesthesiol & Intens Theraphy, Yogyakarta, Indonesia
hcfmusp.author.externalSIRIJATUPHAT, Rujipas:Mahidol Univ, Siriraj Hosp, Fac Med, Div Infect Dis & Trop Med,Dept Med, Bangkok, Thailand
hcfmusp.author.externalSPOSITO, Andrei C.:Univ Estadual Campinas, Atherosclerosis & Vasc Biol Lab, Campinas, Brazil
hcfmusp.author.externalSRISANGTHONG, Pratthana:Bangkok Christian Hosp, Bangkok, Thailand
hcfmusp.author.externalTHOMPSON, Hayley A.:Imperial Coll London, MRC Ctr Global Infect Dis Anal, London, England
hcfmusp.author.externalUDWADIA, Zarir:Hinduja Hosp & Res Ctr, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India
hcfmusp.author.externalVALDERRAMA-BELTRAN, Sandra:Pontificia Univ Javeriana, Hosp Univ San Ignacio, Sch Med, Div Infect Diseases, Bogota, Colombia
hcfmusp.author.externalWINSKILL, Peter:Imperial Coll London, MRC Ctr Global Infect Dis Anal, London, England
hcfmusp.author.externalGHANI, Azra C.:Imperial Coll London, MRC Ctr Global Infect Dis Anal, London, England
hcfmusp.author.externalWALKER, Patrick G. T.:Imperial Coll London, MRC Ctr Global Infect Dis Anal, London, England
hcfmusp.author.externalHALLETT, Timothy B.:Imperial Coll London, MRC Ctr Global Infect Dis Anal, London, England
hcfmusp.citation.scopus3
hcfmusp.contributor.author-fmusphcSILVIA FIGUEIREDO COSTA
hcfmusp.contributor.author-fmusphcANNA SARA SHAFFERMAN LEVIN
hcfmusp.contributor.author-fmusphcESTER CERDEIRA SABINO
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hcfmusp.description.volume75
hcfmusp.origemWOS
hcfmusp.origem.pubmed34549260
hcfmusp.origem.scopus2-s2.0-85134490077
hcfmusp.origem.wosWOS:000789262900001
hcfmusp.publisher.cityCARYeng
hcfmusp.publisher.countryUSAeng
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