Disease burden of chronic hepatitis C in Brazil
Carregando...
Citações na Scopus
14
Tipo de produção
article
Data de publicação
2015
Título da Revista
ISSN da Revista
Título do Volume
Editora
ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
Autores
FERREIRA, Paulo Roberto Abrao
BRANDAO-MELLO, Carlos Eduardo
ESTES, Chris
GONCALES JUNIOR, Fernando Lopes
COELHO, Henrique Sergio Moraes
RAZAVI, Homie
CHEINQUER, Hugo
WOLFF, Fernando Herz
FERRAZ, Maria Lucia Gomes
Citação
BRAZILIAN JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES, v.19, n.4, p.363-368, 2015
Resumo
Background: Hepatitis C virus infection is a major cause of cirrhosis; hepatocellular carcinoma; and liver transplantation. The aim of this study was to estimate hepatitis C virus disease progression and the burden of disease from a nationwide perspective. Methods: Using a model developed to forecast hepatitis C virus disease progression and the number of cases at each stage of liver disease; hepatitis C virus-infected population and associated disease progression in Brazil were quantified. The impact of two different strategies was compared: higher sustained virological response and treatment eligibility rates (1) or higher diagnosis and treatment rates associated with increased sustained virological response rates (2). Results: The number of infected individuals is estimated to decline by 35% by 2030 (1,255,000 individuals); while the number of cases of compensated (n =325,900) and decompensated (n=45,000) cirrhosis; hepatocellular carcinoma (n=19,100); and liver-related deaths (n=16,700) is supposed to peak between 2028 and 2032. In strategy 2; treated cases increased over tenfold in 2020 (118,800 treated) as compared to 2013 (11,740 treated); with sustained virological response increased to 90% and treatment eligibility to 95%. Under this strategy; the number of infected individuals decreased by 90% between 2013 and 2030. Compared to the base case; liver-related deaths decreased by 70% by 2030; while hepatitis C virus-related liver cancer and decompensated cirrhosis decreased by 75 and 80%; respectively. Conclusions: While the incidence and prevalence of hepatitis C virus in Brazil are decreasing; cases of advanced liver disease continue to rise. Besides higher sustained virological response rates; new strategies focused on increasing the proportion of diagnosed patients and eligibility to treatment should be adopted in order to reduce the burden of hepatitis C virus infection in Brazil.
Palavras-chave
HCV, Disease burden, Epidemiology, Incidence, Brazil
Referências
- Bjornaas MA, 2008, BMC PSYCHIATRY, V8, DOI 10.1186/1471-244X-8-8
- Campiotto S, 2005, BRAZ J MED BIOL RES, V38, P41, DOI 10.1590/S0100-879X2005000100007
- Davis GL, 2010, GASTROENTEROLOGY, V138, P513, DOI 10.1053/j.gastro.2009.09.067
- Deuffic-Burban S, 2012, GASTROENTEROLOGY, V143, P974, DOI 10.1053/j.gastro.2012.05.054
- ENGSTROM A, 1991, INT J ADDICT, V26, P91
- Fried MW, 2002, NEW ENGL J MED, V347, P975, DOI 10.1056/NEJMoa020047
- Frischer M, 1997, ADDICTION, V92, P419, DOI 10.1111/j.1360-0443.1997.tb03373.x
- Hickman M, 2003, J URBAN HEALTH, V80, P274, DOI 10.1093/jurban/jtg030
- Kamper-Jorgensen M, 2008, TRANSFUSION, V48, P2577, DOI 10.1111/j.1537-2995.2008.01881.x
- Kikuchi L, 2013, ANTIVIR THER, V18, P445, DOI 10.3851/IMP2602
- National STD/AIDs Programme Federal Ministry of Health, 2011, PUBL SECT INT BRAZ
- OPPENHEIMER E, 1994, ADDICTION, V89, P1299, DOI 10.1111/j.1360-0443.1994.tb03309.x
- PERUCCI CA, 1991, AM J PUBLIC HEALTH, V81, P1307, DOI 10.2105/AJPH.81.10.1307
- Razavi H, 2014, J VIRAL HEPATITIS, V21, P34, DOI 10.1111/jvh.12248
- Shiffman ML, 2007, NEW ENGL J MED, V357, P124, DOI 10.1056/NEJMoa066403
- United Nations - Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2012, 2012 REV WORLD POP P
- United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division, 2011, WORLD POP PROSP 2010, VI and II
- van der Meer AJ, 2012, JAMA-J AM MED ASSOC, V308, P2584, DOI 10.1001/jama.2012.144878