The Optimal Age of Vaccination Against Dengue with an Age-Dependent Biting Rate with Application to Brazil

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Arquivos
art_MAIER_The_Optimal_Age_of_Vaccination_Against_Dengue_with_2020.PDF (1.87 MB)
Citações na Scopus
2
Tipo de produção
article
Data de publicação
2020
DOI
Scopus
Web of Science
PubMed
Título da Revista
ISSN da Revista
Título do Volume
Editora
SPRINGER
Autores
MAIER, Sandra B.
GREENHALGH, David
Citação
BULLETIN OF MATHEMATICAL BIOLOGY, v.82, n.1, article ID UNSP 12, 32p, 2020
Projetos de Pesquisa
Unidades Organizacionais
Fascículo
Resumo
In this paper we introduce a single serotype transmission model, including an age-dependent mosquito biting rate, to find the optimal vaccination age against dengue in Brazil with Dengvaxia. The optimal vaccination age and minimal lifetime expected risk of hospitalisation are found by adapting a method due to Hethcote (Math Biosci 89:29-52). Any number and combination of the four dengue serotypes DENv1-4 is considered. Successful vaccination against a serotype corresponds to a silent infection. The effects of antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) and permanent cross-immunity after two heterologous infections are studied. ADE is assumed to imply risk-free primary infections, while permanent cross-immunity implies risk-free tertiary and quaternary infections. Data from trials of Dengvaxia indicate vaccine efficacy to be age and serostatus dependent and vaccination of seronegative individuals to induce an increased risk of hospitalisation. Some of the scenarios are therefore reconsidered taking these findings into account. The optimal vaccination age is compared to that achievable under the current age restriction of the vaccine. If vaccination is not considered to induce risk, optimal vaccination ages are very low. The assumption of ADE generally leads to a higher optimal vaccination age in this case. For a single serotype vaccination is not recommended in the case of ADE. Permanent cross-immunity results in a slightly lower optimal vaccination age. If vaccination induces a risk, the optimal vaccination ages are much higher, particularly for permanent cross-immunity. ADE has no effect on the optimal vaccination age when permanent cross-immunity is considered; otherwise, it leads to a slight increase in optimal vaccination age.
Palavras-chave
Dengue, Vaccination, Optimal vaccination age, Age-structured model, Biting rate, Hospitalisation
URI
https://observatorio.fm.usp.br/handle/OPI/35524
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Coleções
Artigos e Materiais de Revistas Científicas - FM/MPT
Artigos e Materiais de Revistas Científicas - FM/MLS
Artigos e Materiais de Revistas Científicas - LIM/01
Artigos e Materiais de Revistas Científicas - ODS/03