Rapid increase in the risk of heat-related mortality

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art_LUTHI_Rapid_increase_in_the_risk_of_heatrelated_mortality_2023.PDF (1.97 MB)
Citações na Scopus
13
Tipo de produção
article
Data de publicação
2023
DOI
Scopus
Web of Science
PubMed
Título da Revista
ISSN da Revista
Título do Volume
Editora
NATURE PORTFOLIO
Autores
LUTHI, Samuel
FAIRLESS, Christopher
FISCHER, Erich M.
SCOVRONICK, Noah
GUO, Yue Leon
GUO, Yuming
HONDA, Yasushi
HUBER, Veronika
KYSELY, Jan
Citação
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS, v.14, n.1, article ID 4894, 10p, 2023
Projetos de Pesquisa
Unidades Organizacionais
Fascículo
Resumo
Heat-related mortality has been identified as one of the key climate extremes posing a risk to human health. Current research focuses largely on how heat mortality increases with mean global temperature rise, but it is unclear how much climate change will increase the frequency and severity of extreme summer seasons with high impact on human health. In this probabilistic analysis, we combined empirical heat-mortality relationships for 748 locations from 47 countries with climate model large ensemble data to identify probable past and future highly impactful summer seasons. Across most locations, heat mortality counts of a 1-in-100 year season in the climate of 2000 would be expected once every ten to twenty years in the climate of 2020. These return periods are projected to further shorten under warming levels of 1.5 ? and 2 ?, where heat-mortality extremes of the past climate will eventually become commonplace if no adaptation occurs. Our findings highlight the urgent need for strong mitigation and adaptation to reduce impacts on human lives.
Palavras-chave
URI
https://observatorio.fm.usp.br/handle/OPI/57625
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Coleções
Artigos e Materiais de Revistas Científicas - FM/Outros
Artigos e Materiais de Revistas Científicas - LIM/05
Artigos e Materiais de Revistas Científicas - ODS/13