Potential for international spread of wild poliovirus via travelers
Carregando...
Citações na Scopus
40
Tipo de produção
article
Data de publicação
2015
Título da Revista
ISSN da Revista
Título do Volume
Editora
BIOMED CENTRAL LTD
Autores
WILDER-SMITH, Annelies
LEONG, Wei-Yee
AMAKU, Marcos
QUAM, Mikkel
KHAN, Kamran
Citação
BMC MEDICINE, v.13, 2015
Resumo
Background: The endgame of polio eradication is hampered by the international spread of poliovirus via travelers. In response to ongoing importations of poliovirus into polio-free countries, on 5 May 2014, WHO's Director-General declared the international spread of wild poliovirus a public health emergency of international concern. Our objective was to develop a mathematical model to estimate the international spread of polio infections. Methods: Our model took into account polio endemicity in polio-infected countries, population size, polio immunization coverage rates, infectious period, the asymptomatic-to-symptomatic ratio, and also the probability of a traveler being infectious at the time of travel. We applied our model to three scenarios: (1) number of exportations of both symptomatic and asymptomatic polio infections out of currently polio-infected countries, (2) the risk of spread of poliovirus to Saudi Arabia via Hajj pilgrims, and (3) the importation risk of poliovirus into India. Results: Our model estimated 665 polio exportations (>99 % of which were asymptomatic) from nine polio-infected countries in 2014, of which 78.3 % originated from Pakistan. Our model also estimated 21 importations of poliovirus into Saudi Arabia via Hajj pilgrims and 20 poliovirus infections imported to India in the same year. Conclusion: The extent of importations of asymptomatic and symptomatic polio infections is substantial. For countries that are vulnerable to polio outbreaks due to poor national polio immunization coverage rates, our newly developed model may help guide policy-makers to decide whether imposing an entry requirement in terms of proof of vaccination against polio would be justified.
Palavras-chave
Poliomyelitis, Travel, Importation, International spread, Secondary cases, Polio vaccination, India, Hajj pilgrimage, Policy, Polio eradication, Mathematical model
Referências
- Ahmed QA, 2006, LANCET, V367, P1008, DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(06)68429-8
- [Anonymous], 2014, POLIO PUBLIC HLTH EM
- Arie S, 2014, BMJ-BRIT MED J, V348, DOI 10.1136/bmj.g2481
- Atkinson W, 2009, EPIDEMIOLOGY PREVENT, V11th
- Aylward RB, 2014, LANCET, V383, P489, DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60132-X
- Chambers Stephen T, 2011, N Z Med J, V124, P100
- Cochi SL, 2014, J INFECT DIS, V210, pS1, DOI 10.1093/infdis/jiu383
- FRIEDRICH MJ, 2014, JAMA J AM MED ASSOC, V311, P666
- GELFAND HM, 1957, AM J HYG, V65, P367
- Kamadjeu R, 2014, J INFECT DIS, V210, pS181, DOI 10.1093/infdis/jiu453
- Khan K, 2013, PLOS CURRENTS OUTBRE
- Levitt A, 2014, MMWR-MORBID MORTAL W, V63, P356
- Mach A, 2014, MMWR-MORBID MORTAL W, V63, P756
- Mach O, 2014, J INFECT DIS S1, P275
- Ministry of Tourism. Government of India, COUNTR WIS DISTR FTA
- Moturi EK, 2014, MMWR-MORBID MORTAL W, V63, P468
- O'Reilly KM, 2011, PLOS MED, V8, DOI 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001109
- Plotkin S, 2008, VACCINES, V5th, P634
- Polio Global Eradicatio Initiative, DAT MON WILD POL LIS
- Quam M, 2014, LANCET, V383, P1632, DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60537-7
- The World Bank, DAT LIF EXP BIRTH TO
- The World Bank, DAT TOT POP
- Wen N, 2014, BMC INFECT DIS, V14, DOI 10.1186/1471-2334-14-113
- Wilder-Smith A, 2008, EMERG INFECT DIS, V14, P351, DOI 10.3201/eid1402.071245
- World Health Organization (WHO), GLOB HLTH OBS DAT RE
- World Tourism Organization, 2013, YB TOUR STAT DAT
- Yakovenko ML, 2014, EUROSURVEILLANCE, V19, P41, DOI 10.2807/1560-7917.ES2014.19.7.20706