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dc.contributorSistema FMUSP-HC: Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo (FMUSP) e Hospital das Clínicas da FMUSP-
dc.contributor.authorGUO, Yuming-
dc.contributor.authorGASPARRINI, Antonio-
dc.contributor.authorLI, Shanshan-
dc.contributor.authorSERA, Francesco-
dc.contributor.authorVICEDO-CABRERA, Ana Maria-
dc.contributor.authorCOELHO, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio-
dc.contributor.authorSALDIVA, Paulo Hilario Nascimento-
dc.contributor.authorLAVIGNE, Eric-
dc.contributor.authorTAWATSUPA, Benjawan-
dc.contributor.authorPUNNASIRI, Kornwipa-
dc.contributor.authorOVERCENCO, Ala-
dc.contributor.authorCORREA, Patricia Matus-
dc.contributor.authorORTEGA, Nicolas Valdes-
dc.contributor.authorKAN, Haidong-
dc.contributor.authorOSORIO, Samuel-
dc.contributor.authorJAAKKOLA, Jouni J. K.-
dc.contributor.authorRYTI, Niilo R. I.-
dc.contributor.authorGOODMAN, Patrick G.-
dc.contributor.authorZEKA, Ariana-
dc.contributor.authorMICHELOZZI, Paola-
dc.contributor.authorSCORTICHINI, Matteo-
dc.contributor.authorHASHIZUME, Masahiro-
dc.contributor.authorHONDA, Yasushi-
dc.contributor.authorSEPOSO, Xerxes-
dc.contributor.authorKIM, Ho-
dc.contributor.authorTOBIAS, Aurelio-
dc.contributor.authorINIGUEZ, Carmen-
dc.contributor.authorFORSBERG, Bertil-
dc.contributor.authorASTROM, Daniel Oudin-
dc.contributor.authorGUO, Yue Leon-
dc.contributor.authorCHEN, Bing-Yu-
dc.contributor.authorZANOBETTI, Antonella-
dc.contributor.authorSCHWARTZ, Joel-
dc.contributor.authorTran Ngoc Dang-
dc.contributor.authorDung Do Van-
dc.contributor.authorBELL, Michelle L.-
dc.contributor.authorARMSTRONG, Ben-
dc.contributor.authorEBI, Kristie L.-
dc.contributor.authorTONG, Shilu-
dc.identifier.citationPLOS MEDICINE, v.15, n.7, article ID e1002629, 17p, 2018-
dc.description.abstractBackground Heatwaves are a critical public health problem. There will be an increase in the frequency and severity of heatwaves under changing climate. However, evidence about the impacts of climate change on heatwave-related mortality at a global scale is limited. Methods and findings We collected historical daily time series of mean temperature and mortality for all causes or non-external causes, in periods ranging from January 1, 1984, to December 31, 2015, in 412 communities within 20 countries/regions. We estimated heatwave +/- mortality associations through a two-stage time series design. Current and future daily mean temperature series were projected under four scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions from 1971 +/- 2099, with five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality in relation to heatwaves in the future under each scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, with two assumptions for adaptation (no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation) and three scenarios of population change (high variant, median variant, and low variant). Results show that, if there is no adaptation, heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to increase the most in tropical and subtropical countries/regions (close to the equator), while European countries and the United States will have smaller percent increases in heatwave-related excess mortality. The higher the population variant and the greenhouse gas emissions, the higher the increase of heatwave-related excess mortality in the future. The changes in 2031 +/- 2080 compared with 1971 +/- 2020 range from approximately 2,000% in Colombia to 150% in Moldova under the highest emission scenario and high-variant population scenario, without any adaptation. If we considered hypothetical adaptation to future climate, under high-variant population scenario and all scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, the heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to still increase across all the countries/regions except Moldova and Japan. However, the increase would be much smaller than the no adaptation scenario. The simple assumptions with respect to adaptation as follows: no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation results in some uncertainties of projections. Conclusions This study provides a comprehensive characterisation of future heatwave-related excess mortality across various regions and under alternative scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, different assumptions of adaptation, and different scenarios of population change. The projections can help decision makers in planning adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change.-
dc.description.sponsorshipCareer Development Fellowship of Australian National Health and Medical Research Council [APP1107107]-
dc.description.sponsorshipMedical Research Council-UK [MR/M022625/1]-
dc.description.sponsorshipEarly Career Fellowship of Australian National Health and Medical Research Council [APP1109193]-
dc.description.sponsorshipNational Health and Medical Research Council-
dc.description.sponsorshipCentre of Research Excellence (CRE) Centre for Air quality and health Research and evaluation (CAR) [APP1030259]-
dc.description.sponsorshipMinistry of Education of Spain [PRX17/00705]-
dc.description.sponsorshipResearch Council for Health, Academy of Finland [266314]-
dc.description.sponsorshipGlobal Research Laboratory through the National Research Foundation of Korea [K21004000001-10A0500-00710]-
dc.description.sponsorshipEnvironment Research and Technology Development Fund of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan [S-14]-
dc.description.sponsorshipNational Health Research Institutes of Taiwan [NHRI-EM-106-SP03]-
dc.description.sponsorshipUS Environmental Protection Agency Assistance Agreement [83587101]-
dc.relation.ispartofPlos Medicine-
dc.subject.otherheat-wave mortality-
dc.subject.otherhuman health-
dc.titleQuantifying excess deaths related to heatwaves under climate change scenarios: A multicountry time series modelling study-
dc.rights.holderCopyright PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE-
dc.subject.wosMedicine, General & Internal-
dc.type.categoryoriginal article-
dc.type.versionpublishedVersion-, Yuming:Monash Univ, Sch Publ Hlth & Prevent Med, Dept Epidemiol & Prevent Med, Melbourne, Vic, Australia-, Antonio:London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Publ Hlth Environm & Soc, London, England-, Shanshan:Monash Univ, Sch Publ Hlth & Prevent Med, Dept Epidemiol & Prevent Med, Melbourne, Vic, Australia-, Francesco:London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Publ Hlth Environm & Soc, London, England-, Ana Maria:London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Publ Hlth Environm & Soc, London, England-, Eric:Univ Ottawa, Sch Epidemiol & Publ Hlth, Ottawa, ON, Canada-, Benjawan:Minist Publ Hlth, Dept Hlth, Hlth Impact Assessment Div, Muang Nonthaburi, Thailand-, Kornwipa:Minist Publ Hlth, Dept Hlth, Hlth Impact Assessment Div, Muang Nonthaburi, Thailand-, Ala:Lab Management Publ Hlth, Kishinev, Moldova-, Patricia Matus:Univ Los Andes, Dept Publ Hlth, Santiago, Chile-, Nicolas Valdes:Univ Los Andes, Dept Publ Hlth, Santiago, Chile-, Haidong:Fudan Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Environm Hlth, Shanghai, Peoples R China-, Samuel:Univ Sao Paulo, Dept Environm Hlth, Sao Paulo, Brazil-, Jouni J. K.:Univ Oulu, Ctr Environm & Resp Hlth Res, Oulu, Finland; Oulu Univ Hosp, Med Res Ctr Oulu, Oulu, Finland; Univ Oulu, Oulu, Finland-, Niilo R. I.:Univ Oulu, Ctr Environm & Resp Hlth Res, Oulu, Finland; Oulu Univ Hosp, Med Res Ctr Oulu, Oulu, Finland; Univ Oulu, Oulu, Finland-, Patrick G.:Dublin Inst Technol, Sch Phys, Dublin, Ireland-, Ariana:Brunel Univ London, Inst Environm Hlth & Soc, London, England-, Paola:Lazio Reg Hlth Serv, Dept Epidemiol, Rome, Italy-, Matteo:Lazio Reg Hlth Serv, Dept Epidemiol, Rome, Italy-, Masahiro:Nagasaki Univ, Inst Trop Med, Dept Pediat Infect Dis, Nagasaki, Japan-, Yasushi:Univ Tsukuba, Fac Hlth & Sport Sci, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan-, Xerxes:Kyoto Univ, Dept Environm Engn, Kyoto, Japan-, Ho:Seoul Natl Univ, Grad Sch Publ Hlth, Seoul, South Korea-, Aurelio:Spanish Council Sci Res, Inst Environm Assessment & Water Res, Barcelona, Spain-, Carmen:Univ Valencia, Epidemiol & Environm Hlth Joint Res Unit, Valencia, Spain-, Bertil:Umea Univ, Dept Publ Hlth & Clin Med, Umea, Sweden-, Daniel Oudin:Umea Univ, Dept Publ Hlth & Clin Med, Umea, Sweden-, Yue Leon:Natl Hlth Res Inst, Natl Inst Environm Hlth Sci, Zhunan, Taiwan-, Bing-Yu:Natl Taiwan Univ, Coll Med, Dept Environm & Occupat Med, Taipei, Taiwan; Natl Taiwan Univ Hosp, Taipei, Taiwan-, Antonella:Harvard TH Chan Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Environm Hlth, Boston, MA USA-, Joel:Harvard TH Chan Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Environm Hlth, Boston, MA USA- Ngoc Dang:Univ Med & Pharm, Fac Publ Hlth, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam; Duy Tan Univ, Inst Res & Dev, Da Nang, Vietnam- Do Van:Univ Med & Pharm, Fac Publ Hlth, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam-, Michelle L.:Yale Univ, Sch Forestry & Environm Studies, New Haven, CT 06511 USA-, Ben:London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Publ Hlth Environm & Soc, London, England-, Kristie L.:Univ Washington, Ctr Hlth & Global Environm, Seattle, WA 98195 USA-, Shilu:Anhui Med Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Hefei, Anhui, Peoples R China; Anhui Med Univ, Inst Environm & Human Hlth, Hefei, Anhui, Peoples R China; Shanghai Jiao Tong Univ, Shanghai Childrens Med Ctr, Shanghai, Peoples R China; Queensland Univ Technol, Sch Publ Hlth & Social Work, Brisbane, Qld, Australia-
hcfmusp.publisher.citySAN FRANCISCO-
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Artigos e Materiais de Revistas Científicas - FM/MPT
Departamento de Patologia - FM/MPT

Artigos e Materiais de Revistas Científicas - HC/InCor
Instituto do Coração - HC/InCor

Artigos e Materiais de Revistas Científicas - LIM/05
LIM/05 - Laboratório de Poluição Atmosférica Experimental

Artigos e Materiais de Revistas Científicas - ODS/13
ODS/13 - Ação contra a mudança global do clima

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