Mortality risk prediction in high-risk patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting: Are traditional risk scores accurate?

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art_GONCHAROV_Mortality_risk_prediction_in_highrisk_patients_undergoing_coronary_2021.PDF (954.68 KB)
Citações na Scopus
2
Tipo de produção
article
Data de publicação
2021
DOI
Scopus
Web of Science
PubMed
Título da Revista
ISSN da Revista
Título do Volume
Editora
PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE
Autores
ARTHUR, Camila Perez de Souza
SOUSA, Alexandre
OLIVEIRA, Marco Antonio Praca
ATIK, Fernando Antibas
SEGALOTE, Rodrigo Coelho
TIVERON, Marcos Gradim
SILVA, Pedro Gabriel Melo de Barros e
Citação
PLOS ONE, v.16, n.8, article ID e0255662, 13p, 2021
Projetos de Pesquisa
Unidades Organizacionais
Fascículo
Resumo
Background The performance of traditional scores is significantly limited to predict mortality in high-risk cardiac surgery. The aim of this study was to compare the performance of STS, ESII and HiriSCORE models in predicting mortality in high-risk patients undergoing CABG. Methods Cross-sectional analysis in the international prospective database of high-risk patients: HiriSCORE project. We evaluated 248 patients with STS or ESII (5-10%) undergoing CABG in 8 hospitals in Brazil and China. The main outcome was mortality, defined as all deaths occurred during the hospitalization in which the operation was performed, even after 30 days. Five variables were selected as predictors of mortality in this cohort of patients. The model's performance was evaluated through the calibration-in-the-large and the receiver operating curve (ROC) tests. Results The mean age was 69.90 +/- 9.45, with 52.02% being female, 25% of the patients were on New York Heart Association (NYHA) class IV and 49.6% had Canadian Cardiovascular Society (CCS) class 4 angina, and 85.5% had urgency or emergency status. The mortality observed in the sample was 13.31%. The HiriSCORE model showed better calibration (15.0%) compared to ESII (6.6%) and the STS model (2.0%). In the ROC curve, the HiriSCORE model showed better accuracy (ROC = 0.74) than the traditional models STS (ROC = 0.67) and ESII (ROC = 0.50). Conclusion Traditional models were inadequate to predict mortality of high-risk patients undergoing CABG. However, the HiriSCORE model was simple and accurate to predict mortality in high-risk patients.
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URI
https://observatorio.fm.usp.br/handle/OPI/42099
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Coleções
Artigos e Materiais de Revistas Científicas - FM/MCP
Artigos e Materiais de Revistas Científicas - HC/InCor
Artigos e Materiais de Revistas Científicas - LIM/11
Artigos e Materiais de Revistas Científicas - ODS/03